1. gold position: 65438+February 65438+July, ishares gold position was flat/silver position was flat; According to the data of 65438+February 18, as of 65438+February 17, the gold trust held 36 1.73 tons of gold, which was the same as the previous trading day. Silver positions were 1 1348.36 tons, which was the same as the previous trading day. 65438+February 17 gold ETF positions: SPDR gold positions decreased by 5.56 tons; According to the data of gold ETF 65438+February 18, as of June 65438+February 17, the gold position of gold ETF-SPDR Gold Trust was 880.66 tons, which was 5.56 tons lower than the previous trading day.
2. On Tuesday, the price of palladium exceeded $2,000/ounce for the first time in history, and the spot price of palladium once rose by 1. 1% to $2,000.35/ounce; Continue the trend of continuous growth of global demand last year; Then it fell due to profit taking. This year, the largest increase of palladium is 59%. According to market observers, the supply gap is hard to make up, which is good news for palladium producers, driving the inventory soaring; On the other hand, Ole Hansen, director of commodity strategy of Ole Hansen saxo, said that the increase in palladium price will not have much impact on automobile manufacturers, because palladium only accounts for a small part of the overall production cost; Mining companies and speculators have benefited from the sustained rise. Citigroup said in the report that by the middle of 2020, the price of palladium may jump from the record of $0/898.85 per ounce set on Monday to $2,500; Tai Wong, head of metal derivatives trading at BMO Capital Markets, said that before the price of palladium exceeded $2,000, in most cases, the high-priced solution was high price, but this did not apply to palladium. He refers to the general view of raw material prices, that is, a sharp rise in prices will bring new output, thus lowering the increase. Wong said that there seems to be no new ready-made supply at any reasonable price, so the price of palladium may continue to rise on the basis of the current level, but the volatility may increase.
3. In the report of 65438+February 17, Citigroup analysts Jabaz Mathai and jason williams pointed out that with the market digesting the expectation that the Federal Reserve will return to the zero lower bound at the end of 2002 10, the yield of10 and 30-year treasury bonds will drop to the lowest level in history. The U.S. interest rate strategist of the bank predicted that the yield of U.S. 10-year treasury bonds would fall to a historical low of 1.25% in 2020, which is one of the lowest predictions so far. "The best prediction of the 10-year interest rate (and the rest of the curve) is the market's digestion of the final federal funds rate," strategists Jaz Maathai and jayson williams said in a report on Tuesday. It is predicted that the Fed's three interest rate cuts of 20 19 will give way to a complete easing cycle and return to the zero lower limit before 202 1. This forecast has two main bases: the high model probability of recession within one year and the weak global PMI. Citigroup's forecast for the yield of US Treasury bonds by the end of 2020: 2-year 0.75%, 5-year 0.80%, 10/.25%, 30-year 1.75%.
5. The price of gold held steady on Tuesday, as strong American manufacturing data boosted the willingness to take risks and offset the lingering doubts of the market about the Sino-US trade agreement; Palladium fell after trying to reach an all-time high of $2,000 an ounce. Rob Lutts, chief investment officer of cabot Wealth Management, said that the actions of central banks are dangerous, and gold must reflect this; We have formed the habit of asking the central bank to promote economic growth. In other respects, British Prime Minister Johnson put the risk of hard Brexit back on the agenda in the context of winning the general election, saying that he would pass legislation to require that the transition period of Brexit cannot be extended beyond 2020; In times of economic or political uncertainty, gold is usually a haven for investors.
6. One of the main concerns about silver this year is that silver does not perform so well compared with gold. However, in the new year, many analysts are now more optimistic about silver than gold. Daniel Ghali, commodities strategist at TD Securities, said that silver may perform better than gold next year. In the past few years, there has been a considerable disconnect between silver and gold investment. However, in the past few months, there are signs that the correlation between the investment activities of these two metals has turned positive again. We are optimistic about the prospect of gold, but people who buy silver will get greater returns. We believe that the situation of industrial demand will improve later this year, and RJO futures are more optimistic about silver because of the demand for silver. The ratio of gold to silver will continue to decline, which is good for silver and bad for gold. However, Standard Chartered Bank believes that silver may not perform as well as gold next year, and points out that silver lacks tactical positions. Standard Chartered Bank said that before we see the basic supply and demand dynamics and the consolidation of investor interest, we will probably see silver catch up with gold, but we may not be able to surpass gold.
7. Economists at Deutsche Bank have raised the forecast of US economic growth by 0.2% to 2% in 2020, mainly because consumer spending is more flexible in the first half of 2020. Even if trade tensions disappear next year, the uncertainty of the US election will curb capital expenditure. It is estimated that by 2023, the core PCE of the United States will be lower than the target of the Federal Reserve. The bank predicts that in order to avoid deflation in other major developed economies, the Federal Reserve will have to cut interest rates by 50 basis points again in 20021year, although the current unemployment rate is close to the historical low.
8.20 19+ 19 trading situation of Shanghai gold exchange: the trading volume of gold t-d was 40.334 tons, and the closing price of gold t-d rose by 0.37% to 333.47 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 40.34 tons and a turnover of13,444,035.54. The settlement direction is "empty payment" and the settlement amount is 8. 1 18 tons; Mini T D closed up 0.28% to 333.47 yuan/gram, with a turnover of 5.0856 tons and a turnover of 16958752.98 yuan. The settlement direction is "overpayment and empty payment" and the settlement amount is 27.2 1 ton; Silver T D closed up 0.56% to 4 108 yuan/kg, with a turnover of 510.226 tons and a turnover of 20985334.0 14 yuan. The settlement direction is "overpayment and empty payment", and the settlement amount is 165.24 tons.
9. Jane Foley, head of foreign exchange strategy at Rabobank, said: "If I had to choose a theme, it would still be dollars." She was the most accurate analyst in Bloomberg's quarterly survey from July to September. "However, the trend of the US dollar in the first few months of 2020 may be stronger than market expectations.
After that, it will weaken, but the weakening will not be as big as the market expected. "Westpac, the bank's second most accurate forecast of the G 10 currency trend, also believes that the US dollar will remain strong at the beginning of next year and then fall. Barclays, which ranks third in forecasting accuracy, predicts that the dollar will rise against the euro in 2020. Accurately predicting the trend of the US dollar is very important for the financial industry to judge the prospects of assets from other major currencies to oil, gold, bonds and so on. At present, it is generally expected that the US dollar will weaken against most G 10 currencies in 2020. This contradictory view may complicate the market forecast.
The latest quotation of gold price
I. Spot gold price
1. International spot gold price
As of press time, the international spot gold price reported 1475.97 USD/oz, down 0.25 USD/oz from yesterday's closing price; The international spot palladium price reported 1940.38 USD/oz, which was lower than yesterday's closing price 15. 19 USD/oz; The international spot silver price reported 16.999 USD/oz, which was 0.0 1 1 USD/oz lower than yesterday's closing price. The international spot platinum price was reported at 926.57 USD/oz, down 1.7 1 USD/oz from yesterday's closing price.
2. Domestic spot gold price
Second, the gold futures price.
1. International gold futures price
2. Domestic gold futures price
Third, the price of paper gold.
Analysis of gold price trend
Spot gold daily chart
Spot gold hourly chart
At 9:30 Beijing time, the spot gold price is 1476.02 USD/oz.
The above views are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice.
Related Questions and Answers: China Gold Trend Chart 2007-20 14 Do you want the stock trend of "China Gold" or the RMB quotation of gold? Please clarify the relevant questions and answers: the price of gold has fallen sharply, and the Chinese aunt has started. Can we bargain now? As far as the current price of gold is concerned, I don't suggest you start with it.
First of all, the overall price of gold is still at a high level.
Since March 2020, the international gold price has continued to rise. At the peak, the price of gold once reached more than 2000 dollars. However, the price of gold has fallen slightly recently. So far, the international gold price is only1more than 800 dollars.
But I think this price is still relatively high.
Because before the outbreak of the epidemic in 20 19, the international gold price was only about 1450 dollars, which is equivalent to the current international gold price being about 350 dollars higher than that in August and September of 20 19, which is still relatively high.
In addition, according to the current trend of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the international economic performance, it is predicted that the international gold price may remain between 1.600- 1.800 for some time to come.
Second, there is still room for gold prices to fall in the future.
Over the past year or so, the international gold price has been rising continuously, which has two major influences. One is that the global economic situation is not optimistic due to the epidemic, and the corresponding demand for safe haven has increased, and the demand for gold has also increased, so the price of gold has risen.
Another is that since the outbreak of the epidemic, since March 2020, the United States has started an unrestricted QE policy, and then several stimulus plans have been launched. As a result, the amount of dollars has been increasing and the liquidity has also increased. Many dollars flowed into the capital market, boosting the capital price. In this context, the price of gold has also been rising.
However, as the global economy gradually returns to normalization in the future, the employment target of the United States will be achieved, but the inflationary pressure will further increase. It is impossible for the Fed to maintain a loose monetary policy, and it is possible to tighten monetary policy and even raise interest rates at any time.
Once the Fed raises interest rates, the dollar index will rise accordingly, and once the dollar index rises, the price of gold will generally fall accordingly. Coupled with the normalization of the international economy, everyone's risk aversion will be weakened, so there is a lot of room for gold to fall in the future.
Personally, I infer that after the second half of 2023, if there are no accidents, the price of gold may fall to between 1450 and 1600.
Therefore, for those friends who are not in a hurry to use gold, I suggest that they can wait for a while and don't rush to start when gold is at a high level.
Finally, the Chinese aunt has been miserable in the golden pit. Don't make the same mistake again.
During the period from 20 12 to 20 13, the international gold price fell sharply for a period of time. During the period from 20 12 to 10, the international gold price remained at about 1790 USD, which was exactly the same as the current international gold price.
However, after 20 12, 1 13 10, the international gold price fell rapidly. By April of 20 13, the international gold price had fallen to about 1400 USD. At this time, Chinese aunts felt the opportunity and bought all kinds of gold, especially 20 13.
In the case of Chinese aunts sweeping gold, even the bears on Wall Street are losing ground. It seems that the Chinese aunt defeated the Wall Street bosses.
However, it turns out that Chinese aunts are still a little tender. Although the price of gold did rise slightly after Chinese aunts bought a lot of gold, the international price of gold has been falling all the way since August 20 13, and even fell to about 1050 at the end of 20 15. Gold was bought in 20 13.
Although the international gold price has risen since 20 16, the peak in August of 20 16 was only about 1350, and then the international gold price remained at a low level for a long time. It was not until the end of 20 19 that the international gold price returned to above 1500 USD. If not,
Therefore, when Chinese aunts sweep gold, they can be said to be narrowly missed, some of them shoot early, and basically end up with losses.
Referring to the experience of Chinese aunts in those years, I think that if you buy gold at this time, you may repeat the tragedy of that year, so I suggest you be cautious.