On 12 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced QE4, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain the ultra-low interest rate of 0-0.25% until the middle of 20 15 years, and launched the fourth round of quantitative easing (QE4), purchasing 45 billion US dollars of government bonds every month to replace the distortion operation (OT) due at the end of this month.
On February 7th, 65438, the US Department of Labor issued an important report on non-farm employment. The number of non-agricultural employees increased by1460,000, which was significantly higher than the expected 85,000; 1 1 The unemployment rate in that month was 7.7%, which was lower than the market expectation of 7.9%. According to the data released by the US Department of Commerce, the real GDP in the first quarter of this year increased by 2% year-on-year, and the real GDP in the second quarter increased by 1.3%. According to the data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce 10 on February 20th, the final value of the real gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of the United States was revised to increase by 3. 1% year-on-year, hitting a new high in the past year, with an expected increase of 2.8% and an initial increase of 2.7%. According to the data released by the US Department of Labor, the CPI of the United States increased by 2.0% in September, by 2.2% in June and by 5,438+065,438 5438+ 10/0/.8% in June. The American economy is growing steadily, and the inflation level is still very low. Under the condition that the unemployment rate has not dropped to 6.5% and the inflation rate is lower than 2.5%, the Fed will maintain the current loose monetary policy.
The growth rate of GDP in the euro zone has been declining since 20 1 1 quarter, with negative growth in the second and third quarters of this year, and the consumer price index has also dropped to a low level. In September 10 and 1 10, the consumer price index rose by 2.6%, 2.5% and 0 respectively. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi announced on September 6th that he would implement a bond purchase plan called "Direct Currency Trading". The final value of CPI in the euro zone in June was 5438+065438+ 10, which increased by 2.2% year-on-year, in line with expectations. The economic prosperity index of the euro zone rebounded in June 165438+ 10, and the consumer confidence index continued to decline in October. The initial value of comprehensive PMI in the euro zone improved in June 5438+February, but it is still shrinking, and the economy declined or deepened in the fourth quarter. The European Central Bank Novotny said that inflationary pressure in the euro zone may weaken in the next two years. Inflation is limited, and it is expected that the eurozone will maintain a loose monetary policy.
Last Thursday (65438+February 20th), the Bank of Japan announced the last interest rate resolution of the year, announcing that it would expand the asset purchase scale to 10 1 trillion yen, while maintaining the ultra-low interest rate of 0-0. 1%. The above three major international economies have successively introduced further loose monetary policies, and other economies have also adopted loose monetary policies to varying degrees.
(B) the domestic macroeconomic situation
According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, 20 12,11,the national fixed assets investment (excluding farmers) was 32,623.6 billion yuan, a nominal increase of 20.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was the same as that in June1-/kloc-0. From the ring comparison, the investment in fixed assets (excluding farmers) increased by 1 1.26% in October.
20 12 years, 1- 1 year, the national real estate development investment was 6,477.2 billion yuan, with a nominal increase of 16.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was higher than1-1year. Among them, residential investment was 4,460.6 billion yuan, up by 1 1.9%, and the growth rate increased by 1. 1 percentage point, accounting for 68.9% of real estate development investment. 1- 1 1 month, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 5,566.58 million square meters, up 13.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate was the same as that of1-1month. Among them, the residential construction area is 4166.57 million square meters, increasing by 10.8%. The newly started area1624/1- 10 square meters decreased by 7.2%, which was1-0/0 lower than that in June by 1.3 percentage points. Among them, the newly started residential area1199.05 million square meters decreased by 1 1. 1%.
20 12, 1 1 In the current month, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry was 50.6%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. China's non-manufacturing business activity index was 55.6%, up slightly by 0. 1 percentage point from last month.
The above economic data reveals signs of stabilization and recovery in economic growth. Economic growth is expected to accelerate in the fourth quarter.