What is the development of the world economy under the epidemic situation and economic downturn? What is the impact on the rubber tire industry? When can the rubber tire industry recover quickly? 16 The big brothers brought you wonderful speeches.
What is the macro-economy after the epidemic?
At today's meeting, Mr. Chen Quansheng, a famous economist in China and a distinguished researcher in the State Council, gave us a particularly warm response. In 70 minutes, Mr. Chen described the economic development of China in detail.
Affected by the epidemic, China's economic development has been seriously affected. 17 In April, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the GDP in the first quarter of 2020 increased by -6.8%, which was lower than the end of 20 19 12.9%.
In the face of the global spread of the epidemic, the development of the world economy has also been seriously affected. According to the forecast of UN 13 in May, the world economy will shrink by 3.2% in 2020. It is estimated that the cumulative output loss in 2020 and 20021year is nearly 8.5 trillion US dollars. The United Nations predicts that epidemic control depends not only on public health measures, but also on the ability of countries to protect their work and income, especially the ability to protect the most vulnerable members of society.
According to the optimistic forecast of the World Trade Organization for global GDP this year and next, global GDP will shrink by 2.5% in 2020 and increase by 7.4% in 20021year. Pessimism will shrink by 8.8% in 2020 and increase by 5.9% in 20021year.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) believes that the global economy will shrink by 3% in 2020. Economic growth in Asia will come to a standstill in 2020.
Judging from the cumulative growth of retail value and output of automobile products, the output of automobile products will drop by 45.8% in February, 44.6% in March and 32.3% in April 2020. The retail sales of automobile products decreased by 37% in February, 30.3% in March and 22.6% in April.
At present, although the production of the automobile industry has picked up, it is important that the growth pace of automobile consumption level is still backward, and the capital policy that the country is about to implement is expected to really benefit enterprises and produce effective promotion.
Tire market forecast in 2020
Marco Spinetto, global head of R&D knowledge management and regulations of Pirelli Group, expressed his views on the European tire industry.
He said that although the European tire factory has started, it is not clear when the supply chain around the world will be smooth.
The epidemic has also affected the psychology of European consumers, and buying a car is no longer their first choice.
The segregation policy has also changed everyone's shopping habits, and the trend of online shopping is obvious, which makes the logistics transportation change from long distance to short distance.
At the beginning of April, the European tire industry stopped production by more than 90%, and the European industry is taking active measures to deal with this crisis.
Pirelli also actively took measures to deal with the crisis, such as donating money and materials to donate medical equipment, and at the same time, it also provided help to suppliers and agents to help them tide over the difficulties.
Facing the economic situation in 2020, Pirelli cautiously predicts that the global GDP will drop by about 2.8% in 2020, and the global automobile tire market is expected to drop by about 19%.
Due to the decline in automobile production and sales, the original tires will drop by about 21%; Due to the isolated travel restrictions of countries, the global tire replacement channels will decrease by about 18%.
In this regard, Pirelli has also taken a series of measures to strengthen profitability.
A profound interpretation of economic and industrial trends
The second meeting invited Wang Fenghai, deputy secretary of the Party Committee and general manager of Shanghai Futures Exchange, to speak at the meeting. Wang Fenghai said, "After 20 years of wind and rain, the Chinese dream has not changed." As an important financial infrastructure, the previous issue has always insisted on serving the real economy, and during the epidemic period, all futures products such as natural rubber were specially exempted from delivery fees. In the future, we will continue to use our own advantages to help rubber tire enterprises rationally use futures tools and avoid the risk of raw material price fluctuations.
Rajiv Budhraja, Secretary General of the Indian Automobile and Tire Manufacturers Association, shared with the participants "the prospects, challenges and opportunities of the Indian automobile and tire industry". He described the development, present situation and recovery expectation of Indian automobile and tire industry with comprehensive and wonderful data.
He believes that India's consumption orientation and development trend have changed, but the essential consumption power and policy drive are still the key to industrial recovery. It is predicted that in 2022, India's automobile and tire industry will achieve rapid recovery, and India's tire industry will still maintain strong competitiveness.
Gao Yong, the chairman of Qingdao Wanlong High-tech Group Co., Ltd., used a report full of science and technology to describe in detail the framework model of tire smart factory in the 5G era and the three stages of realizing parallel smart factory. He pointed out that the transformation of intelligence and informatization is considered as an investment in the future, and the integration with 5G technology can organically solve the defects still existing in tire manufacturing and quickly improve the intelligence level of the industry.
Roxana B. Petrovic, project manager of the International Synthetic Rubber Manufacturers Association, announced the opening of today's second half of the meeting. She made a detailed analysis of the global production capacity, supply and demand of these eight synthetic rubber varieties. She also stressed that the medical industry has become an important support point for the synthetic rubber industry. After the economic recovery, the demand for synthetic rubber in electric vehicle industry will be worthy of enterprises' attention.
Liang Aimin, President of China Synthetic Rubber Industry Association, delivered a speech entitled "Present Situation and Prospect of Synthetic Rubber Market in China". He pointed out that at present, the total annual production capacity of 50 synthetic rubber production enterprises in China has reached 6.05 million tons, accounting for 30% of the world, and all kinds of products also have their own competitive advantages. In the future, high-end products with high quality and low price will be the general trend and become the main direction of China's synthetic rubber industry. I also hope that China's SR industry will become world-class as soon as possible.
As the blood of rubber products manufacturing industry, the price, supply and demand of natural rubber are widely concerned by people in the industry. Therefore, during and after this epidemic, in order to let people in the industry better understand the development, supply and demand and price of natural rubber market, as well as what new trends and new formats will appear, this annual meeting specially invited two big coffee makers in the natural rubber industry to share.
Jom Jacob, senior analyst of Natural Rubber Manufacturers Association, said in his speech that in the first quarter of this year, the consumption of natural rubber in China and the world decreased by 34% and 65,438+08.9% respectively, and it is estimated that the annual consumption will decrease by about 6%. Affected by consumption, the price of natural rubber is still in a downward trend, and the annual output is expected to drop by 4.7%.
Finally, he concluded that, despite the economic recovery trend, the effect of economic stimulus policies adopted by the government this year and the progress of vaccine research and development in COVID-19 are still decisive factors for the prosperity of natural rubber industry.
Huang Da, investment director of Yahuida Financial Consultant Pte Ltd, predicted that the global economy is far from recession, and there is still the possibility of further depression in the third quarter. The price of natural rubber may remain weak this year. The annual price will fluctuate between 65,438+0 USD/kg and 65,438+0.2 USD/kg, and it is only by the end of 2026 that 5438+0 is likely to rise.
Hu Hui, Senior Manager of Commodity Department II of Shanghai Futures Exchange, as the final guest of the meeting, introduced the "Operation of Natural Rubber Derivatives Market". By the end of April, the accumulated turnover of No.20 rubber futures in the previous issue has reached 654.38+050 billion yuan, which has played a role in maintaining the high-quality and efficient supply of raw materials in the industry. I hope more enterprises with ideas can also participate in it, improve their ability to rationally use futures tools and seek greater benefits for enterprises.
On June 5th, the organizers specially invited the big names from seven industries, such as tires, adhesive tapes, mechanical molds and dealers, to speak for the industry, namely Mr. Zhang Wei, director and deputy general manager of Shandong Haomai Technology Co., Ltd., Ni, chairman of Nantong Huili Rubber Co., Ltd., Zhu Renen, chairman of Yunnan Industry and Trade Co., Ltd., and Marco Spinetto, global head of R&D knowledge management and regulations of Pirelli Group. Rong Sanyou, deputy general manager of Jihua Group, Shen Gengliang, chairman of Zhejiang Shuangjian Rubber Co., Ltd., and Yang Fuyun, general manager of Guangdong Guangken Rubber Group Co., Ltd. and other seven industry giants analyzed and prospected the development during and after the epidemic from their own enterprises.
After the first "2020 china rubber Annual Meeting" was successfully held, the meeting on June 5th still received great attention from the industry, and the economic situation and industrial upgrading caused extensive discussions among the participants. The third webcast will be officially launched on June 1 1, with the theme of "enterprise management and market exploration", and the detailed topics and meeting procedures will be announced later.
The meeting received special support from Shanghai Futures Exchange, including Double Star Group Co., Ltd., Shengao Chemical Technology Co., Ltd., Shandong Shengquan New Materials Co., Ltd., Lin Wei New Materials Technology Co., Ltd., Soft Holding Co., Ltd., Shandong Stier Chemical Technology Co., Ltd., Shandong Jingbo Zhongju New Materials Co., Ltd., Shandong Yanggu Huatai Chemical Co., Ltd., Sailun Group Co., Ltd., Beijing Guo Mao Tongda Data Co., Ltd., etc. An official cooperation exhibition of the conference was also held.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.