Market participants said that from the price trend, the current hog price is at the bottom of the cycle, and the inflection point of the new cycle is approaching, and the market has already appeared a format of weak reality and strong expectations.
Zhou Xiaoqiu, chief researcher of Guotai Junan Futures Agricultural Products, told the Futures Daily reporter that the weak reality is very important because supply exceeds demand.
From the upstream production capacity calculation, March is the peak period of slaughter, and the actual slaughter data can also prove that the slaughter volume has recovered to a high level.
In terms of cost, the current period is in the lightest season of the year, and the cost caused by the superposition of epidemics in the same period has been qualitatively affected, and the cost has appeared in the off-season.
These factors led to the second drop in spot price of live pigs and the cash cost of the industry.
With the double dip, the spot price of live pigs continued to fall and the space narrowed. At the same time, the market's yearning for the new cycle is getting stronger and stronger, and the price list has a high premium for futures forward.
Zhou Xiaoqiu's performance, with the passage of time, the market has changed in five aspects: first, the slaughter volume decreased in April and May, second, the piglet birth volume decreased in April and May, third, the outsourcing fattening cost increased, fourth, the whole fattening cost increased, and fifth, the policy purchasing and storage continued to be held.
It can be seen that the market expectation is being repaired bit by bit, just as the phenomenon of hoarding meat by downstream slaughter enterprises is quite extensive, indicating that the market is waiting for the next round of price increases.
According to Song Congzhi, a researcher of Founder's mid-term futures feed breeding, the profit of pig breeding fluctuated downward in the first quarter. After the price of outsourced fattening pigs briefly rose to the breakeven point at the end of the fourth quarter of last year, the breeding profit deteriorated again in February this year, and both outsourced fattening pigs and self-raised pigs fell below the breeding cost again, and once fell to the lowest level in history.
Because of the continuous decline in breeding profits, the increase in feed prices in the same period led to a substantial increase in the funds invested in the early stage of breeding, and some enterprises had to speed up the slaughter of pigs again to maintain more cash flow.
According to the monitoring of 400 designated counties in China by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the stock of fertile sows decreased by 0.62% in February, but it still increased by 8.9% compared with the same period of last year.
The absolute number of fertile sows is about 42.68 million, which is still obviously higher than the stock of 40 million and 465.438+00,000 in normal years.
In addition, the stock structure was further optimized, and the exchange of ternary sows was ended on the basis of binary breeding sows.
Judging from the breeding cycle of commercial pigs, it usually takes 10 months for the replacement of sows to be transferred to the replacement of pigs.
The stock of fertile sows began to decline after reaching its peak in June last year. By the end of February, the stock of fertile sows was still surplus, which meant that the supply in the remaining three quarters of this year continued to be sufficient, laying the foundation for the limited increase in pig prices.
From the perspective of supply rhythm, the time period with the highest pig slaughter in the whole year is June 9. It is estimated that the pressure of pigs to be slaughtered in April this year is particularly likely to continue to increase in the second quarter, and the supply pressure will drop significantly from the end of the third quarter to the end of the year.
Xu Xiaoyan, a researcher in the Guo Hailiang era, said.
The reporter learned that at present, the operating rate of sample slaughtering enterprises is higher than that of 2020 and 202 1 year, and lower than that of 20 19 years, but the fresh sales rate has dropped sharply year-on-year, reflecting the weakening of seasonal demand after the Spring Festival and the continued weak market demand under the influence of domestic epidemic situation.
Xu Xiaoyan indicated that the seasonal discipline required by pork usually weakens after the Spring Festival, starts to rise on the Dragon Boat Festival and May Day, then weakens again when the weather is hot in summer, and starts to improve after September, so it is needed during the National Day, Mid-Autumn Festival and Spring Festival peak season.
At present, we should first pay attention to whether the inflection point of 45-month seasonal demand can be fulfilled. In view of the current epidemic situation in China, we have to be prepared to move back or down the inflection point, but we can still look forward to the arrival of the seasonal demand boom in the second half of the year.
Looking forward to the market outlook, Zhou Xiaoqiu believes that although the current low price situation will accelerate the production capacity, thus making the new cycle basically more solid, we must also see that the production capacity of fertile sows is relatively slow, which may lead to the cycle running rhythm deviating from market expectations.
On the whole, because of the rising cost, the spot price of live pigs is very solid at 12 yuan/kg. However, 14 16 yuan/kg will have greater upward resistance in the era of high slaughter volume and low cost.
In the case that the supply and demand format has not been completely reversed, the price of live pigs may continue to fluctuate at the bottom, but the price center of gravity is constantly moving up. It is difficult for contracts in recent months to rise sharply because of spot drag, and forward contracts are unlikely to fall sharply because of strong expectations.
When the absolute number of fertile sows and pigs is not low, the fluctuation range of pig prices will be narrowed.
Song Congzhi showed.
In Xu Xiaoyan's view, the price rebound in the second half of the year should be treated with caution when the pig production capacity is slow, there is an oversupply in the whole year and there is no bright spot.
In addition, it is suggested that aquaculture enterprises should lock in the aquaculture profits of a department in real time according to their own funds and slaughter plans, provided that the long-term contract can give aquaculture profits.