Li Jiahao, an energy analyst at South China Research Institute, said that the expected cumulative inventory of soda ash industry in June 5438+065438+ 10 was not fulfilled, and even the phenomenon of continuous inventory withdrawal in the upper, middle and lower reaches appeared in the low inventory state, and the spot price was strongly supported in the low inventory state.
Longzhong information industry data shows that as of last week, the overall operating rate of domestic soda enterprises was 90.05%, up 0.73 percentage points from the previous week; The weekly output was 597,900 tons, an increase of 0.49 million tons over the previous week. However, the total inventory of soda enterprises decreased by 22,000 tons, a decrease of 7.24%.
According to the data, at present, the operating rate of domestic soda enterprises is relatively high, and the output has increased to some extent, but the inventory of enterprises has dropped significantly, which means that the demand for downstream raw materials has increased greatly.
According to the reporter of Cailian, the speed of soda ash destocking is accelerated, which is related to the continuous ignition of the new production line of photovoltaic glass downstream.
Since June 1 1, four large-scale photovoltaic glass production lines have been lit in China, namely Wu Jun and Youyou 1000 tons/day; Anhui Xinyi solar energy (000968. HK)1000t/day, Follette (60 1865. SH) and CSG 1200 tons/day, * * 4,400 tons/day.
Some people in the photovoltaic glass industry told Cailian that the demand for photovoltaic modules is still not small, so large domestic glass enterprises are accelerating the production capacity of new photovoltaic glass, so the demand for photovoltaic glass by soda ash is obvious. Before the photovoltaic glass production line is ignited, enterprises should prepare raw materials about two months in advance, and the consumption of soda ash reaches its peak after 1 month.
At present, it is estimated that there will be at least 4 new photovoltaic glass production lines in China from June to February in 5438, and it is optimistic that 6-8 new production lines will be added. According to the raw material ratio of 20%, the demand for new soda ash raw materials in these new production lines will exceed 2000 tons/day, and the demand for soda ash will reach its peak at 5438+ 10 in June next year.
However, the person also said that glass enterprises generally have long-term agreement prices with soda enterprises, and large glass enterprises have certain bargaining power for raw materials; Therefore, the influence of raw material demand of photovoltaic glass on spot market price has yet to be confirmed by the market. Moreover, with the increase of photovoltaic glass production lines, there are many "cold repairs" in traditional float glass production lines, which makes the demand for soda ash trade-off, and the actual increase may be limited.
As the largest downstream traditional float glass of soda ash, the demand has been suppressed by the real estate market this year, and many glass enterprises are in a loss-making production state. Now the profits of soda enterprises are rising with the price, but the spot price of glass has fallen, and the price game may force soda enterprises to make profits in a certain period of time.
Zijin Tianfeng Futures believes that since the beginning of 10, soda ash futures have continued to rise and the spot price of glass has fallen. The market of soda ash futures and spot, soda ash and glass did not appear, and the market was not stable enough. Especially this year, the float glass industry has suffered serious losses and less cash flow, which may lead to a low reserve of soda ash in the glass factory before the Spring Festival and a drop in the price of soda ash.
For downstream demand, soda enterprises are not too worried.
Some related business people told the Cailian reporter that at present, soda ash is at a low level in the past three years, both in corporate inventory and social inventory. In addition, since the photovoltaic glass production line was launched this year, the demand for raw materials has greatly increased. Since the second half of the year, almost all the "cold repair" production lines planned by float glass enterprises have been postponed. Generally speaking, the supply and demand of soda ash are in a balanced state, and soda ash enterprises have no plans to reduce production.