The loss of steel enterprises depressed the price of coke, forcing the price of coking coal to fall back.
1 65438+1October1,steel mills cut prices for the first time. The price of wet quenching is reduced by 100 yuan/ton, and that of dry quenching is reduced by 1 10 yuan/ton. It fell behind on the 2nd. On the 3rd, some steel mills in Hebei Province reduced their prices by100-1/0 yuan/ton in the second round, and they quickly landed that afternoon, and fully landed yesterday. The price of twice coking coal is reduced by 200 per ton-220 yuan. After the current round of coke price reduction, the quasi-first-grade coke in Tangshan area of Wei Fen is expected to be 2560 yuan/ton.
Hou Ye, an industry analyst of Coal Resources Network, told Cailian reporter: "Now the second round of reduction has been fully implemented in Hebei, Shandong and other places. This round of price cuts is mainly the cost transmission of poor profits of steel enterprises. "
The loss of steel enterprises is too large, and the price reduction of coke is accelerated. Wang Lingxiang, an analyst of Guangfa Futures Industry, told the Cailian reporter: "There may be another round of decline this week, and it may even be four or five consecutive rounds in the short term."
According to Mysteel data, at present, the loss per ton of long-process rebar production enterprises is close to 150 yuan/ton (the index calculation model includes the weighted model of raw material inventory conversion cycle), and the profits of steel mills have reached a historical low, and the losses of steel enterprises are increasing day by day. In the case of weak downstream sales, it is urgent to transmit the cost pressure to the upstream.
The "chill" of the downstream market has been transmitted to the coking coal market. Recently, the market sales of coking coal have increased and the market price has dropped rapidly. The coal dealer in Linfen, Shanxi Province told the Cailian reporter: "Recently, the price of coking coal has fallen rapidly, falling by three or four hundred per ton."
A few days ago, the starting price of low-sulfur fertilizer clean coal in Linxian County of Luliang was lowered by 200 yuan/ton, and it was listed at 6,543,800 tons. The reserve price is 2300 yuan/ton, with 8000 tons sold and 2000 tons auctioned. Luliang Liulin low-sulfur main coking coal, the starting price is 2000 yuan/ton, and the transaction price is 2 170-2 175 yuan/ton, which is 255 yuan/ton lower than the higher point 10. Low-sulfur and fat coal, listed at 5,000 tons, with a starting price of 2,280 yuan/ton and a turnover of 1000 tons, down by 220 yuan/ton compared with the high point of 10, with 4,000 tons more hands; The transaction price of medium sulfur main coking coal 1795- 1800 yuan/ton, which was lower than the higher point 10 by 430 yuan/ton.
Hoye told Cailian that the current coking coal market price and Xie Chang price in the fourth quarter have been upside down.
"Linfen coking coal price has been adjusted back to 100-300 yuan within a week. In essence, the demand for steel can't go up this time, and steel companies hope to force the price of raw coal. It is expected that the price of coking coal will accelerate in 165438+ 10. " Manager Jin of China Coal Huali Network Business Information Center told Cailian reporter.
Steel prices are expected to weaken, and coal prices are still supported.
However, steel enterprises intend to force the price of coking coal to fall by lowering the price of coke, which is difficult to make up for the losses of steel enterprises.
Zheng, head of Tangshan Iron and Steel Co., told Cailian reporter: "Now the steel market is in the off-season and the market shipment is not good. At the current price, it is expected that there will be no winter storage downstream, and there is still room for steel prices to fall, or it will fall to around 3,200 yuan/ton before the winter storage buyers enter the market. At present, the loss per ton of steel in Tangshan is above 200 yuan, and large-scale active production reduction may soon occur. "
In the case that the demand of steel enterprises is expected to weaken, the price of double coke is more supported by the cost side.
A person in charge of a coal trading enterprise in Shaanxi told the reporter of Cailian: "The price of coking coal fell rapidly in the early stage and may weaken slightly. However, due to the low inventory of downstream enterprises, the overall support of coal prices is strong, and the prices of some coking coal varieties cross with coal prices. After the price reduction of some blended coking coal varieties, it is not suitable to sell raw coal directly as thermal coal, including cost and screening. "
Manager Jin believes: "Due to the weakening demand, it is expected that the price of coking coal will drop by 300-500 yuan/ton in this round, and the auction market may be more obvious. However, personally, it is unlikely that the price of coking coal will reach the next stage in the short term, and some coal prices should stabilize."
"The coking coal market was weak in June 5438+065438+ 10, but the fourth quarter was not a single trend, and there was still a possibility of a rebound. For coal, 65438+February is the traditional pre-holiday replenishment stage, especially in the Spring Festival next year. The long-term downstream steel enterprises and coke enterprises are in a state of low inventory of raw materials. Under this circumstance, there is still a certain opportunity in the market in 65438+February under coking coal. " Hou Wei said.
For the trend after the year, Zheng analyzed: "At present, the market mentality has become sluggish, and the news hype has little stimulating effect, paying more attention to actual demand. If demand cannot keep up and market confidence continues to weaken, then the price of finished steel will fall by the end of the year. " He believes that although the price of coking coal may be supported by coal before the year, if the demand in the steel market does not improve, the trend will weaken after the year.