As a melon eater, I don't know who is right or wrong. I can only speak with' facts' (which cannot be verified for the time being).
The above paragraphs are Baidu original. However, according to Taleb, the 1987 stock market crash gave the two men a loud slap in the face. Taleb spent a long time poking fun at the Nobel Prize Committee:' According to the Nobel family who want to revoke the prize, Nobel may be rolling in his grave in disgust now'. He even made a prediction: "In a world where both of them can win the Nobel Prize, anything can happen. Anyone can be president. "
Unfortunately, what makes Taleb sick again and again. 1997, Swedish Academy awarded the Nobel Prize to Myron Scholes and Robert C. Merton again based on Gauss method.
Ironically, even though these two long-term capital management companies were profitable at first, they closed down in the financial tsunami of 1998 the year after winning the prize.
So far, any theory that attempts to model the stock market, futures, options and other markets has failed.
As a trader, the biggest difference between Taleb and the above four academic schools is' seeking truth from facts'.
Human nature likes to summarize and study laws. What's more, even if we can piece together a theory that adapts to most realities, we must move forward. Man-made ignores a small part, or' turns a blind eye', thinking that its influence can be ignored. Represent the whole world with a' standard deviation' that can't cover all, and practice and hit yourself in the face with your own money. I admire this courage. I can't do it.
Studying the stock market performance in the past 50 years, ten days represents nearly half of the income. Can we still turn a blind eye to this' abnormality'? Are we still pretending this won't happen?
The recent stock market crash in 1987, the financial crisis in 1998 and the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 are all outside the above expert theory. Can you say that they deserve the Nobel Prize in Economics? Did the Nobel Prize deteriorate or was it because of limited cognition at that time? But the fact is that he won the Nobel Prize after being falsified.
It seems that Mandelbrot, who put forward fractal theory, is more qualified to win the Nobel Prize. At least, this theory has not been falsified. If the fractal theory is proved to be wrong one day in the future, we will step on its body and move on.
Taleb is unique in that he has raised the smallest uncertainty to an unprecedented height, even the most important, and even the average value can be ignored. His barbell investment strategy comes from this: he turns his nose up at the portfolio that can get an average return and bets on the unlikely target, but once it happens, it can get a great asymmetric return.
He is also practicing.
He calls himself an empiricist of skepticism, and has different opinions from the above academic schools.
Does his black swan theory have no boundaries?
The answer is definitely yes. I'm waiting for a "thunderbolt" from a strange man. Isn't the current cognition standing on the shoulders of predecessors? Taleb is also based on the research results of a large number of wise men, which expands the cognitive boundary of human beings. What he is doing now is what his predecessors did.
1. Take out 50% spare money to invest in high-quality stocks in high-quality markets. GTAFYA recommended by the punchline teacher is very useful and can even be used directly. For me, it is also necessary to continue to outperform CPI every year, at least to ensure that assets will not shrink.
2. Take out 5% spare money to invest in Bitcoin; With no more than the above proportion of money, invest in stocks that are seriously undervalued and easy to realize, such as resource stocks and high-tech stocks.
The remaining money can be used to buy bond funds.