Moderator: I had a conversation with Mr. Li Kehang of Essence Securities yesterday. He believes that "the time is ripe for market breakthrough, and we should gradually turn our attention to blue-chip stocks". Today's guest, Miss Cai, has a different view. She believes that the market will continue to sort out between 3000 and 3200 points, and it is difficult for heavyweights to become hot spots.
Stock index futures will not bring about style conversion.
Compere: Will the introduction of stock index futures on Friday bring about a change of style?
Cai: More than half of the whole circulation process of China stock market has been completed. Judging from the stock market capital of 20 10, the relationship between supply and demand is still relatively tight. Bank stocks raise tens of billions, and it is quite difficult for elephants to dance all the time. However, large-cap stocks can also be active from time to time, and most of the time they should be diversified. Everyone has a chance to perform.
Moderator: Tuesday's sharp shock, some people think it is a preview of the stock index futures market?
Cai: Tuesday's big shock, if you make the right direction in the stock index futures market, should be cold. On that day, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (2750.023, -32. 1 1.15%) index fluctuated as high as 78 points, with three one-way fluctuations greater than 50 points. However, this is only theoretical. Even if it is organically conceived to make a profit in the futures market by controlling the index, the futures market must have enough opponents. Also consider whether the value paid by the spot market is worth it.
Stock index futures will open soon. The surge in the number of accounts opened this week is a good phenomenon, which is helpful to the turnover of large-cap stocks. However, because it is new, everyone doesn't know how to play. It is estimated that many people will watch it and it will not affect the existing trend.
The stock index continues to be sorted between 3000 and 3200 points.
Moderator: The index has been running below 3200. Will the market break through with the help of stock index futures and heavyweights?
Cai: For the Shanghai Composite Index, the area around 3 180-3200 is a technically strong pressure level since 3478. The upward breakthrough must be supported by heavyweights. The bulls definitely hope that the large-cap stocks will start soon and end the tortured market of 20 10. There is still a distance between hope and reality. We still think that the stock index will fluctuate between 3000 and 3200 points before we see an upward breakthrough or the continuous inflow of large-cap stocks.
Economic data has a neutral impact on the market.
Moderator: The National Bureau of Statistics released the main economic data indicators of the national economy in the first quarter on April 6, 20 12. Will it be good for the market?
Cai: According to the predictions of many experts and analysts in the industry, due to the low base in the first quarter of 2009, the GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2011%12% year-on-year. Although the economic development is a little overheated, it may become an opportunity for the central government to withdraw from the stimulus policy ahead of schedule. However, it is estimated that the consumer price index (CPI) in March will not exceed that in February, and the CPI growth rate will be around 2.6%, and the year-on-year growth rate in the first quarter will be around 2.3%, which is roughly around the deposit interest rate in 2009. Slightly negative interest rates, the central bank may not be able to restart interest rate hikes. If the main data are not too far apart, the impact on the stock market should be neutral.
Moderator: Is the hype style of the market related to economic factors?
Cai: Since 20 10, the focus of the market has mainly focused on whether monetary policy will be tightened and how much stimulus policy will be withdrawn. If the economic situation is good, the policy exit is expected to strengthen; If the economic situation is not good, the expectation of policy withdrawal will be weakened. This ambivalent attitude of investors is reflected in the operation of A-shares, that is, they are optimistic for a while, want to chase the stocks with high allocation for a while, and are afraid of style change for a while, which leads to the trend of shock adjustment.
In fact, the empty data of the stock market should be that the People's Bank of China increased RMB loans by 2.6 trillion yuan on June 5438+02, which was significantly lower than the increase of 4.58 trillion yuan in the same period last year. In particular, in March, only 5 107 billion yuan of new credit was added, and the market was digested by a big shock on Wednesday.
Speculate mid-cap stocks
Moderator: Back to the operation, because the style conversion is still difficult to see, the heavyweights are still difficult to become hot spots, and the small-cap theme stocks have been fiercely hyped. What can investors speculate?
Cai: Although the National Development and Reform Commission raised the price of refined oil, on Wednesday, PetroChina (10.63, 0.03, 0.28%) and Sinopec leveled off, and financial real estate continued to be weak. The market volatility is smaller than that of Tuesday, and the shrinkage is slightly increased. The protagonists of individual stocks are mainly small and medium-sized stocks. In the regional concept, Xinjiang, Tibet, Hainan, aerospace, military industry, agriculture and nonferrous metals are all relatively strong, with the number of daily limit stocks reaching 16, and the trading volume has shrunk significantly compared with the previous trading day. For institutions, small-cap stocks are easy to enter and difficult to exit. If the chips are still relatively concentrated, the adjustment will be more moderate. On the contrary, the chips of large-cap stocks are very scattered, and every time they are pulled up, they will encounter great selling pressure. According to the data released by HKEx this week, the most active "National Team" social security fund has reduced its holdings of 676 million H shares of Bank of China (3.55, -0.08 and-2.20%) since 20 13.99%, and the shareholding ratio has decreased from 14.89% at the end of last year, and the cash amount is about. On April 9, the National Social Security Fund Council also announced that it would reduce its holdings of15.296 million H shares of ICBC at an average price of HK$ 6.3, involving 96.36 million yuan. After the reduction, its shareholding ratio decreased from 654.38+09.05438+0% to 654.38+08.99%. This is a blow to everyone's confidence in holding banking stocks. Fortunately, ICBC and BOC of Hong Kong stocks did not plummet.
If you are afraid of small-cap stocks and large-cap stocks are afraid of speculation, then you can probably speculate in mid-cap stocks. In the scale index system of "a hundred flowers blossom" in the market, the investment function and asset allocation function of the mid-cap index are paid more and more attention by the market. A shares have only two typical mid-cap indices. After the China Securities Index Company released the mid-cap index of Shanghai Stock Exchange for the first time in the second half of last year, the fund company will soon launch mid-cap ETF products on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. According to the reporter's understanding, SSE mid-cap ETF has been identified as one of the innovative products to be promoted in 20 10.
Why does the market pay attention to the mid-cap index? Take a look at the plate with the best increase in 2009. Coal, machinery manufacturing and real estate are mostly mid-cap stocks. In 2009, the growth rate of the top ten stocks in the Shanghai Stock Exchange index rose from 40% to 400%. Among them, 1-4 times the earnings of the top six stocks in circulation market value more than doubled. Annual increase in 2009: Yang Guoxinneng, Lu 'an Huaneng, Datong Coal Industry, Pingmei, Sanyizhong, yantai wanhua, Conch, Oriental Pearl, TBEA and Datang Power Generation. The above-mentioned constituent stocks contributed a considerable increase to the mid-cap index in 2009.
Mid-market index is an active product development goal in international mature markets, and the diversity and scale of related products are equivalent to those of large-market index products, which has been widely recognized by investors. The mid-cap indexes in the international market mainly include SP mid-cap 400, Russell mid-cap 2000, MSCI mid-cap 450 and DJ Wilshire mid-cap. Judging from the compilation method, most of these mid-cap indexes are based on the circulating market value, and some are based on the market value range. Based on the scale index system developed by Standard & Poor's, Dow Jones and FTSE, this paper investigates the returns of large, medium and small-cap indexes in recent two years. The mid-cap index performs well, and most of the time it can surpass the market performance of the large-cap and small-cap indexes in the S&P period: in 2008-2009, the income of the S&P 400 was better than that of the S&P; P500 and S&P 500 index. P600, medium-sized DJ medium cap is better than large-sized DJ cap, medium-sized FTSE250 is better than large-sized FTSE 100, and small-sized FTSE is smaller.
The China market has a similar pattern. It is found that there is also a "small market value effect" in China's capital market, that is, the overall performance of small and medium-sized companies outperforms the broader market for a long time. From 2004 to 2009, among the comparable large, medium and small-cap indexes in the two cities, the return of the Shanghai Mid-cap Index was the highest, reaching 229%, nearly 1 times higher than that of the Shanghai Composite Index.