The so-called deviation rate (BIAS) refers to the difference between the closing price of an index or individual stock on that day and the average value. Divide the deviation degree by the difference of the average value, and then divide the deviation degree by the percentage of the average value, which is the deviation rate. The calculation formula is: BIAS= (index of the day or closing price -N-day average index or closing price) /N-day average index or closing price × 100%.
According to granby's law, the deviation rate is deduced. The characteristic of deviation rate is that when the stock price is too far from the average, it will approach the average. However, it does not clearly show how far it is from the moving average, especially in the small-scale domestic securities market, which is prone to ups and downs due to strong speculation and human manipulation. In a strong bull market or a weak bear market, the deviation will be great and often unexpected, but after all, it is limited. Therefore, it is an important reference index for technical analysis to predict stock price changes by using deviation rate, especially for short-term entry and exit, which has high accuracy.
Deviation rate can be divided into positive deviation rate and negative deviation rate, and when the stock price is above the average, it is positive deviation rate; If the stock price is lower than the average, it is a negative deviation, and when the stock price exceeds the average, the deviation is zero. When the positive deviation continues to expand, it means that shareholders gain more and more. Therefore, when the positive deviation expands to a certain extent, the stock price often falls back to the moving average due to profit-taking and selling pressure. In the same way, when the negative deviation continues to expand to a certain extent, the shareholders' losses are already heavy, and they are unwilling to lose money again, and the selling pressure becomes lighter. When the bears saw that the stock price had been low, they entered the market to make up for the decline, which made the stock price rebound and move closer to the moving average. What investors are most concerned about is that when the deviation expands to what extent, it is the time to buy or sell, which is really a matter of opinion.
As far as the Shanghai Composite Index of the domestic stock market is concerned, there are generally the following points for readers' reference. On the fifth day, when the positive deviation reaches more than 8%, it is the time to sell, and when the negative deviation reaches less than negative 8%, it is the time to buy. On 10, the selling opportunity is when the positive deviation reaches 10%, and the buying opportunity is when the negative deviation reaches-10% or less. Due to the influence of the battle of long and short, the deviation of stock price from various moving averages is easy to occur, but it does not happen many times. Inflation in bull market and the collapse of short market will make the deviation reach an unexpected percentage, but it appears rarely and for a short time, which can generally be regarded as a special case. In the rising market, in case of negative deviation, you can buy at a low price when you fall back, because there is little risk of entering the market at this time. In the case of market decline, if there is deviation, we can ship on rallies when rebounding. When calculating bias, the general value of n is 5 days, and the short-term value is 10 days; 20 days, or 60 days, 120 days is preferable in the long term.
Trend indicator DMI
The basic principle of orienteering index is to explore the "equilibrium point" in the process of price fluctuation, that is, the relationship between supply and demand changes from a tense situation to a "harmonious" through price changes, and then leads to a tense cycle under the action of price supply and demand. DMI can use cross indicators to generate trading signals and can judge whether the market starts. Many technical indicators in the market must be used together with DMI. Judging the strength of buyers and sellers is not subjective and intuitive, but scientific.
First, +/-DM (trend change value) is obtained.
+-$ TERM only stands for rising and falling, not for positive and negative values. The daily trend change value can only be the maximum value between the two, not the combination.
+DM = Today's highest price-Yesterday's highest price (positive value, otherwise 0)
-DM = Today's lowest price-Yesterday's lowest price (positive value, otherwise 0)
Second, TR, the real amplitude, take the maximum change value (one out of three).
1.H-L The highest price of the day minus the lowest price of the day.
2. The difference between the highest price of H-PC on the day and yesterday's closing price
3. The difference between the lowest price of L-PC today and yesterday's closing price
3. Direction line (DI) is an indicator to detect the price rise or fall, +DI indicates the rising direction line, and -DI indicates the falling direction line.
+DM 1
+DI =εεεεεεεεεεε× 100
TR 1
-DM 1
-DI =━━━━━━× 100
TR 1
Fourteen-day period: sum +DM, -DM and TR within fourteen days respectively.
+DM 14
+di 14 =εεεεεεεεεε× 100
TR 14
-DM 14
-di 14 =εεεεεεεεεε× 100
TR 14
To calculate the DM 14 or TR 14 on day 15, just use smma's calculation method:
+DM14 of the current day = (+DM14×13 of the previous day)/14++dm 1 of the current day.
-current DM 14 =(- previous DM 14× 13)/ current DM 14+-DM 1.
Tr14 of the current day = (+DM14×13 of the previous day) 14+DM 1 of the current day.
Calculation of trend value (DX):
Didif
DX =━━━━━━━× 100
DI SUM
Didif = the difference between the rising direction line and the falling direction line.
DISUM = sum of ascending direction line and descending direction line.
Because of the variability of the trend value, the expected trend average (ADX) and the estimated value of "ADXr" are obtained by smoothing 14 days. It is calculated by adding "adx" today and "ADXR" four days ago/kloc-0, and then dividing by 2.
DMI's judgment skills:
1. When (+DI) crosses (-DI) upwards, it is a buy signal. If ADX stops falling and rebounds, the rally will be stronger. If ADX rises to a certain level and then turns around and falls back, it means that even if it rises in the future, the upward trend will slow down and will not last long, and then it will turn around and fall down until ADX turns around and rises again.
2. When (━DI) crosses (+di) upwards, or (+di) falls below (━DI), it is a sell signal. If ADX climbs upward, there will be a sharp decline, and the bottom will not be confirmed until ADX peaks and falls back. In the future, the decline will be slower and will rebound.
3. When the stock price peaks, ADX will peak later. At this time, ADX is around 70, so the role of ADX is to assist in judging the inversion signal of the upward trend or downward trend.
4. When (+di) and (━DI) cross, there are buying and selling signals, followed by ADX and ADXR.
Intersection is the last chance to buy and sell.
5. When ADX breaks away from 20-30 and climbs upwards, no matter whether the price is rising or falling at that time, it can be concluded that there will be a considerable market.
6.ADX is below +di and -di, especially below 20, which means that the stock price is in a quagmire and is in a dull consolidation period. At this time, we should withdraw from the market and wait and see.
7. Once 7.ADX is higher than 50, it suddenly turns down and turns back. At this point, whether the price is up or down at that time, it means that the market is about to reverse.
The Chinese name of KDJ indicator is stochastics, which originated from the futures market.
The application law of KDJ index KDJ index is three curves, which are mainly considered from five aspects in application: the absolute number of KD value; The form of KD curve; KD index crossing; Deviation of KD index; The value of the j index.
First consider the value of KD. The range of KD is 0 ~ 100, which is divided into several areas: over 80 is overbought area, below 20 is overbought area, and the rest is wandering area.
According to this classification, if KD exceeds 80, we should consider selling, and if KD is below 20, we should consider buying. It should be noted that the above division is only a preliminary process of applying KD index, and it is just a signal. If you operate completely in this way, it is easy to lose money.
Second, consider from the shape of KD index curve. When the KD index forms a head-shoulder top shape and multiple tops (bottoms) at a higher or lower position, it is a signal to take action. Please note that these forms must appear in a higher or lower position. The higher or lower the position, the more reliable the conclusion.
Third, consider from the intersection of KD indicators. The relationship between K and D, like the relationship between stock price and MA, also has the problems of death crossover and gold crossover, but the application of crossover here is very complicated, and many other conditions are attached.