Pig prices continue to fall, or will reach the bottom of 6 yuan per catty.

Pig prices continue to fall, or will reach the bottom of 6 yuan per catty. According to the latest news from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, due to the growth of production inertia, there are too many live pigs in China at present, and there is a staged surplus of pork supply. Pig prices continue to fall, or will reach the bottom of 6 yuan per catty.

Pig prices continue to fall, or will be released on the 2nd per catty 1 in 6 yuan, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. Due to the growth of production inertia, there are too many live pigs in China at present, and the demand for pork in the off-season after the Spring Festival has declined, resulting in a staged surplus of pork supply.

From the production point of view, according to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the number of live pigs released nationwide increased by 23.6% in June and 10, and the number of live pigs released in February increased by 8.2%.

Chen Guanghua, deputy director of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: At the end of last year, there were 449 million live pigs in China, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%. These pigs will be put on the market in the next six months, that is, from June to June this year. From this calculation, the supply of pork market in the first half of this year is bound to be at a high level.

In terms of consumption, according to the monitoring of some slaughter enterprises, the slaughter amount was 3.3 million in the second week of February, and it increased to 4.8 million in March 1 week, but compared with the average slaughter amount of 6.2 million per week before the Spring Festival, it decreased significantly, indicating that pork consumption was obviously weak after the Spring Festival.

Chen Guanghua, deputy director of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: At present, the production and supply of live pigs are sufficient, but the demand is shrinking, and the staged surplus is more obvious.

The price of live pigs has continued to decline, and aquaculture enterprises have fallen into losses.

According to the latest monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, at present, due to the superposition of two major factors, namely, increased supply and seasonal decrease in consumption, the price of live pigs continues to decline, and the price is at a low level since 2020, and aquaculture enterprises are in a state of loss.

According to the monitoring data, the average price of live pigs in February was RMB 0/4.06 per kg/kloc-0, which has fallen below the average breeding cost line. The loss of a pig is about 150 yuan, which dropped to 13.2 1 yuan per kilogram last week.

Last week, the average price of pork wholesale market was RMB 0/8.42 per kg/kloc, down by 3.3% month-on-month and 52.2% year-on-year, which has been falling for four consecutive weeks.

The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said that at present, the price of live pigs has fallen below the break-even point, and aquaculture enterprises are generally at a loss.

Chen Guanghua, deputy director of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: The downward trend will continue for some time. In March and April, the price of pigs may fall to the bottom of about per kilogram 12 yuan, and the loss of breeding will increase. I hope that the majority of farmers can keep a close eye on the market, control costs, prevent epidemics, keep up with the pace, and survive the relatively difficult stage of pig production and operation in the near future.

Four measures to stabilize pig production.

The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said that due to the continued low price of live pigs, farmers are likely to accelerate the elimination of fertile sows. To this end, four measures will be taken to regulate pig production capacity and stabilize pig production.

The first is to strengthen early warning. Continuously track and monitor the monthly information of live pigs and fertile sows, strengthen information release, and guide farmers to slaughter fat pigs in March and April when the market supply is loose.

The second is the stability policy. Supervise local governments to keep long-term support policies such as land use, finance and environmental protection stable, eliminate policy duplication, stabilize industry expectations and strengthen industry confidence.

The third is to stabilize production capacity. Timely introduction of targeted measures to protect basic production capacity and prevent the risk of excessive elimination of fertile sows.

The fourth is to prevent the epidemic. Do a good job in the prevention and control of African swine fever, strengthen the supervision of quarantine, transportation and slaughter, solidly promote sub-regional prevention and control, and promote the construction of grassroots animal epidemic prevention system as a whole to prevent the stable production and supply of pigs from being reversed due to regional major animal epidemics.

Chen Guanghua, deputy director of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: Keep a close eye on the normal number of fertile sows, urge local authorities to strictly implement the requirements of provincial overall responsibility, timely study and introduce local temporary subsidies and rescue measures as needed, and strengthen the coordination with the frozen pork reserve adjustment policy to form a joint force of regulation.

Pig prices continue to fall, or will reach the bottom of 6 yuan per catty. Since March this year, due to the factors such as sufficient supply of overall pig sources, insufficient pork consumption power and high cost of superimposed feed, the long decline cycle of China's pig market has continued to grind to the bottom. According to Zhuo Chuang Information Monitoring, the national average price of slaughtered pigs in early March was 12.32 yuan/kg, which was 1.50% lower than that in late February.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs recently announced that with the continuous decline in the price of live pigs, aquaculture enterprises have also fallen into losses. At present, the price of live pigs is at a low level since 2020, and aquaculture enterprises are generally at a loss. The monitoring data showed that the loss of a pig slaughtered in February this year was about 150 yuan.

In March, the losses in the pig breeding industry continued to increase. According to Zhuo Chuang Information Monitoring, the value of autotrophic profit of pigs continued to decline in early March, with an average profit of -273.02 yuan/head, which was 9.28% lower than that in late February.

Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: At present, the pig price is in the process of the third price decline.

According to the latest news from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, due to the growth of production inertia, there are a large number of live pigs in China at present, and the demand for pork in the off-season after the Spring Festival has declined, resulting in a staged surplus of pork supply.

According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in terms of production, the number of live pigs released nationwide increased by 23.6% in June and 10, and the number of live pigs released in February increased by 8.2%. In terms of slaughter, the slaughter amount was 3.3 million in the second week of February, and increased to 4.8 million in March 1 week, but compared with the average weekly slaughter amount of 6.2 million before the Spring Festival, the decrease was obvious, indicating that pork consumption was obviously weak after the Spring Festival.

"At the end of last year, 449 million pigs will be listed in the next six months, that is, from June to June this year. From this calculation, the supply of pork market in the first half of this year is bound to be at a high level. At present, the production and supply of live pigs are sufficient, but the demand is shrinking and the staged surplus is more obvious. " Chen Guanghua, deputy director of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said.

In the context of oversupply of live pigs, the average price of live pigs in February has fallen below the average breeding cost line, and the average price of pork wholesale market has also fallen for four consecutive weeks.

In Chen Guanghua's view, the downward trend of pig prices will continue for some time. In March and April, the price of pigs may fall to the bottom of about per kilogram 12 yuan, and the loss of breeding will increase. From the whole year of 2020 to the high level of 20021at the beginning of the year, this pig cycle experienced two declines in late June of 20021and the second week of 10, and is currently in the process of the third price decline.

"I hope that the majority of farmers can keep a close eye on the market, control costs, prevent epidemics, and keep pace, and survive the relatively difficult stage of pig production and operation in the near future." Chen Guanghua said.

Will market pessimism continue to intensify in the short term?

Judging from the past weekend, the national pig price is mainly weak and stable. According to the data of Yongyi Consulting, the average price of domestic live pigs was 1 1.86 yuan/kg on March 3rd, which was 0.0 1 yuan/ton lower than the previous day.

From the futures market, since the Russian-Ukrainian incident, live pig futures have dropped from February 2 1 1 42 1 0 yuan/ton to March 2113/30 yuan/ton. Hou Zhifang, head of Founder Mid-term Futures Feed Breeding Group, told reporters that the pig futures price has been arranged at a premium, reflecting that market expectations have changed, and it may only be a matter of time before the cycle bottoms out.

Judging from the negative factors in the current live pig market, Zhang Xiaojun, a live pig analyst at Green Dahua Futures, said that at present, the epidemic situation of COVID-19 in many places in China is grim, the terminal consumption is sluggish, and the delivery of IOUs is not good. At the same time, the current pig production capacity is less than expected, and the breeding production capacity will continue to be realized.

Judging from the bullish factors, Zhang Xiaojun said, first of all, the situation in Russia and Ukraine has pushed up the cost of raw materials, and the downward pressure on the pig-grain ratio still exists, and the expectation of subsequent purchasing and storage has not diminished. Of course, if the quantity of purchasing and storage is still at a low level, the profitability of purchasing and storage is still limited. Secondly, domestic aquaculture profits once again entered a deep loss, and farmers' anti-price sentiment warmed up. Some slaughtering enterprises in the north increased the proportion of warehouses, and the storage capacity rate of frozen products continued to increase.

"In addition, in June of 20021year, the number of fertile sows in China reached 45.64 million, reaching the highest level in the year, and it remained above 45 million in July and August. According to the growth and reproduction law of pigs, the number of fertile sows can significantly affect the supply of pigs after 10 months, so the potential supply of sows will reach its peak in March-May 2022. It is estimated that with the decrease in the supply of live pigs after May 2022, the price of live pigs is expected to gradually stabilize. " Hou Zhifang said.

Xu Sheng, a senior analyst of Shen Yin Wanguo Futures Agricultural Products, believes that overall, the supply and demand of live pigs are fierce, the downstream demand is insufficient, the supply is sufficient, and it still takes time to destock in the medium and long term. However, with the increase of feed prices, it is expected that the market pessimism will intensify in the short term. It is suggested that short-term investors can buy 2205 contracts every callback and take profits after the rebound. Long-term investors can wait until the market sentiment is the most pessimistic before entering the market.

Zhang Xiaojun said that the price trend of live pigs in the market outlook still needs to continue to pay attention to multiple factors such as the time window of national purchasing and storage, the change of terminal consumption, the speed of industrial de-capacity, the COVID-19 epidemic and the prevention and control of live pig diseases.

Pig prices continue to fall, or will reach the bottom of 6 yuan per catty. According to Caijing.com, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs recently announced that due to the inertia growth of output, there are too many live pigs in China at present, and the demand for pork in the off-season after the Spring Festival has declined, resulting in a staged surplus of pork supply.

Chen Guanghua, deputy director of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said: "This downward trend will continue for some time. In March and April, the price of pigs may fall to the bottom of about per kilogram 12 yuan, and the loss of breeding will increase. I hope that the majority of farmers can keep a close eye on the market, control costs, prevent epidemics, and keep pace, and survive the relatively difficult stage of pig production and operation in the near future. "

From the production point of view, according to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the number of live pigs released nationwide increased by 23.6% in June and 10, and the number of live pigs released in February increased by 8.2%.

Last week, the average price of pork wholesale market was RMB 0/8.42 per kg/kloc, down by 3.3% month-on-month and 52.2% year-on-year, which has been falling for four consecutive weeks. The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said that at present, the price of live pigs has fallen below the break-even point, and aquaculture enterprises are generally at a loss.

Chen Guanghua said that in this pig cycle, the price of live pigs experienced two downturns from the high in 2020 to 202 1 at the beginning of the year. The first time was 202 1 in late June, and the second time was 202 1, 10 in the second week of June, and now it is in the process of the third price diving.