What is the reason for the sell-off in the bond market?
Since June 165438+ 10, the bond market adjustment and centralized selling have intensified. The data shows that more than 2,600 debt bases have negative returns in a week, accounting for as much as 80%.
For the sudden adjustment of the bond market, Yan Yifan, deputy director of the fixed income department of Jinchuang Hexin Fund, said in an interview with China, a brokerage firm, that this wave of adjustment began with the return of the capital price center to a reasonable range, and then the adjustment of epidemic prevention and control policies and the introduction of real estate support policies increased the bond market's expectation of economic recovery, which led to an increase in the bond market's yield.
"The concentrated selling of products to bonds when bonds fell has enhanced the decline of the bond market to some extent." Yan Yifan revealed that up to now, corporate debt-based products are basically redeemed normally. Usually, institutional investors apply for and redeem foundations based on their own judgment on the market. Individual investors pay more attention to the investment experience and historical performance of investment funds. And recent product performance. Different investment and asset structure strategies should be adopted for different products from customer orientation.
Reduce duration and leverage
Faced with the adjustment of the bond market, fund managers also began to make rapid strategic changes, especially in asset structure, duration and leverage.
A FOF fund manager in South China told China, a brokerage firm, that in the early stage, the layout of equity positions had been increased in the investment portfolio, which hedged the fluctuation of the bond market and paid attention to some high-grade credit bond funds, thus maintaining a relatively stable position strategy.
Yan Yifan, deputy director of the fixed income department of Jinchuang Hexin Fund, believes that, first of all, fund managers should rationally position the funds they manage, whether they are money, pure debt or fixed income+products, and what kind of income and fluctuation characteristics bond assets need to bring to the portfolio. In addition, we should pay attention to the holding structure of funds and try our best to ensure the stability of portfolio liabilities through scattered assets and scattered customers.
"Try to keep the duration and leverage as low as possible at the initial stage of adjustment, and pay more attention to the adjusted investment opportunities when the portfolio is safe at the end of adjustment." Yan Yifan emphasized this.
Recently, Nuoan Fund also said that the recent domestic economic data is weak, liquidity in the banking system is acceptable, and the Fed's interest rate hike expectation is gradually digested, and the bullish factors in the bond market still exist, so the risk-free interest rate fluctuation is expected to be limited. Most institutions increase their holdings of interest rate bonds and financial bonds, and credit bonds are mainly high-grade central enterprises. It is expected that the pattern of "optimal allocation" will be difficult to break during the year, and the position structure of credit products can be further optimized by combining the data of the third quarterly report.
Debt-based redemption is unlikely to disturb the stock market.
It is worth mentioning that some institutions believe that the sell-off in the bond market is due to the transformation of the bank's net wealth management and the return on institutional bond investment this year. The debt base needs to redeem stable income, which eventually leads to a negative cycle of redemption. However, the market does not need to worry that debt-based redemption may have an impact on the stock market.
Haitong Securities issued a strategy report that the fixed income in the debt base and the allocation of equity assets by the foundation will cause short-term disturbance to the stock market funds in the case of a sharp decline in the bond market and a sharp redemption of the debt base, but the long-term trend of the stock market depends on the fundamentals.
"In the short term, we should pay attention to the disturbance of redemption to the stock market. In the long run, the upward trend of A shares remains unchanged. " Haitong Securities pointed out that it is necessary to pay close attention to whether related funds and wealth management will be redeemed in the future. Judging from the valuation and fundamental leading indicators, the current A-shares are at the bottom of the history of 3-4 years, and the steady growth policy promotes the gradual recovery of the economy. After the disturbance, the prospect of A shares is still worth looking forward to.
Minsheng Canada Fund Company also pointed out that in the short term, the bond market may show a volatile situation. In the third quarter, the cargo administration report still increased the overall adjustment of year-end liquidity. It can be seen that in the policy window period at the end of the year and early next year, monetary policy is still expected to cooperate loosely and continue to pay attention to subsequent liquidity; The factors supporting the performance of the early bond market, such as real estate, have recently changed marginally at the policy level, causing the market to worry about "wide credit".
"But from our point of view, the impact of the domestic epidemic on consumption and production still exists. After the expected fluctuation and the release of market adjustment pressure, the impact of policy landing effect on interest rate trend may be more critical. " Minsheng Canada Fund Company believes that in the short term, the fundamentals may still be in the stage of "strong expectations and weak reality"; This round of negative feedback has increased market volatility to some extent, but it may be difficult to affect the interest rate trend. At present, the process may be halfway through and will soon be over. There is no need to be overly pessimistic about the bond market.