Giving up the wait-and-see attitude, retail investors are eager to sell stocks.
Since the beginning of this year, Deng Zhong Company has published the weekly trading situation of securities accounts every week. The latest data shows that the number of securities accounts participating in trading last week increased by 3.89 million compared with last week, reaching 1542. 1200, with an increase of 33.68%, while only1654.38+0535600 participated in market-making trading last week.
A private equity fund manager believes that the data is an optimistic signal, which probably reflects that the quilt cover retail investors have finally given up the wait-and-see and started to choose to cut a lot of meat. Judging from the trend of the Shanghai Composite Index last week, it rose on Monday and Tuesday, and then fell for three consecutive days, showing a situation of falling volume. When it fell, the turnover exceeded 100 billion, and it fell below the annual line last Friday. Ordinary investors rarely dare to buy in this decline. Theoretically, most of them should focus on selling. The large number of accounts involved in trading shows that the accounts that did not buy or sell in the early stage also began to act, and the exchange of stock chips is one of the important characteristics of the bottom formation.
He told reporters that the relationship between institutions and retail investors in the stock market is always a game, and the behavior of most retail investors has a herd effect, so most retail investors often buy at a high point, far from it. The latest example is "May 30th" last year. When most retail investors sold, the real low point of the market was not far away.
Retail psychology reflects market changes.
In fact, by continuously tracking the data of Deng Zhong companies, the mentality of retail investors is closely related to the operating state of the market. The private equity fund manager summarized the psychological change process of retail investors in combination with market trends.
As of last week, Deng Zhong Company released six weeks' account transaction data. The most active time for individual investors to participate in trading was in the second week of opening in 2008, that is, the eve of the current crash, with a total of 209,645,438+0,000 account transactions. Obviously, retail investors are very optimistic at this time, so trading is active.
During the week from 65438+ 10/4 to 65438+ 10/8, the stock index was in the early stage of decline, and investors were still relatively confident. So they took a positive bargain-hunting approach, and the accounts involved in the transaction remained at a high level of 208 1.8 million.
The following week, the stock index began to plummet, some investors were obviously locked in, and new funds began to fear the adjustment of the market, so the number of accounts involved in trading dropped to 18665.
65438+1 From October 28th to February 28th,1,the stock index fell below the annual line for the first time, and a large number of investors were seriously trapped. However, due to lack of confidence, unwilling to cut meat, bargain-hunting funds disappeared, the transaction volume dropped sharply, and the number of participating accounts decreased to 13682700.
Subsequently, on February 4, the CSRC issued a favorable policy to open new funds, and the major stock indexes almost stopped trading. However, only11535600 households participated in the transaction during the five trading days from February 4 to February15 (with Spring Festival in the middle). Obviously, most retail investors who have been quilted have not chosen to lose weight on rallies, and they are still lucky about the rebound of the broader market.
In the latest data last week, the number of accounts participating in the transaction soared by 33.68%. This phenomenon shows that many retail investors finally lost confidence under the impact of blue-chip Qian Chao, and chose to cut their meat with a stop loss, which happened to be in the heart of bargain-hunting funds, taking the opportunity to get goods on dips and changing hands in large numbers near the annual line, laying a good foundation for the construction of the bottom!
The Ministry of Finance plans to reduce stamp duty to save the market, and has submitted an adjustment report.
"Go and vote for CPPCC member He Qiang's proposal on unilateral stamp duty! It is related to the vital interests of our small retail investors. Please vote with 1 minute. " Yesterday, a short message spread "crazily" in the group.
Before He Qiang publicly expressed his opposition to stamp duty, the market was full of rumors of "canceling stamp duty to save the market" and even overwhelming public opinion about "stamp duty" appeared. Yesterday, after the Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and fell 4200 points again, it was suddenly rumored that "the Ministry of Finance may reduce stamp duty in early March". China Petroleum, Vanke, China Ping An, China Petrochemical and other stocks rose rapidly, and finally the Shanghai Composite Index miraculously turned red at 13 minutes before the close, with the increase even exceeding 1%.
The netizens surveyed are in favor of reducing stamp duty.
He Qiang, member of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and director of the Securities and Futures Research Institute of the Central University of Finance and Economics, said at the "Enbit Economic Forum" on February 23 that the stamp duty on A-shares is too heavy at present, and the stamp duty on stocks collected last year is almost equivalent to the total amount of the previous 16 years. The high stamp duty rate increases the transaction cost, reduces the transaction efficiency and greatly increases the investment risk of investors. As a member of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, he is preparing a proposal on unilateral stamp duty.
The day coincided with the news released by State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China, People's Republic of China (PRC). Last year, the stamp duty income of securities transactions reached 200.5 billion yuan, an increase of 10.2 times compared with 2006. In sharp contrast, the total dividends of listed companies last year were only 654.38+080 billion yuan.
Some websites even launched online surveys to solicit netizens' opinions on stamp duty adjustment. As of 20: 00 last night, among 142737 netizens who voted, 98% thought that the stamp duty should be lowered now, 4 1.73% thought that the stamp duty should be abolished, and 36.08% thought that it should be adjusted below 1‰, which was close to 80%.
An authoritative professional media reporter in Beijing said yesterday that the rumor that "the Ministry of Finance may reduce stamp duty in early March" may not be groundless, because the source is "quite certain". According to another source, the Ministry of Finance has submitted a proposal report on "adjusting the method or range of stamp duty collection at an appropriate time" to the management, which was submitted at a time when the global stock market plummeted before the Spring Festival, leading to the rescue of the markets by governments around the world.
Raising stamp duty failed to curb speculation.
Yesterday, our reporter tried to contact He Qiang, but somehow, his office phone was not answered and his mobile phone was always turned off.
According to the information published on the website of the Central University of Finance and Economics, He Qiang is a famous expert in financial securities in China, Manchu. He founded the first securities and futures research institute in China from 65438 to 0994 and served as the director. His monographs "Investigation Report on Legal Person Stock Market", "Research on Periodic Fluctuation of China Stock Market" and "Research on Performance Level of Listed Companies in China" have been highly valued by the management.
What is intriguing, however, is that at midnight on May 30 last year, stamp duty suddenly changed. He Qiang said in an interview with the media: "Although raising the stamp duty on stock transactions will appropriately increase transaction costs, it will not have a substantial impact on investors' high returns, and it is not a big bad news. "
Last year, the stamp duty on "May 30" stock transactions was raised from 1‰ to 3‰. The management has said that the purpose is to "reduce stock market speculation and change the abnormal phenomenon of listed companies before". However, the result of high stamp duty did not reach the good intention of policy makers. According to the statistics of China Securities Regulatory Commission, the A-share market was active last year, and the turnover was three times that of 2006. It shows that the turnover has not decreased because of the increase of stamp duty, which confirms a basic law of investment, that is, investment decisions are mostly based on risks and benefits, not transaction costs.
This plan can be reversed as long as it passes the stock market. 2008-02-27 09:09
PetroChina and Sinopec struggled to pull up, and the three major banking stocks immediately echoed, directly turning the stock index from green to red, closing up 45.65 points, and the K-line closed a long shadow line. Judging from the trend of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, the lowest point reached 4394 yesterday, just touching the annual line, which is very close to the previous low of 44 14. Both times, a single needle bottomed out, showing signs of double bottom.