Please, pay back the money?
American commercial crude oil inventories will hit a record high at the end of April, and this trend will continue to rise until May. Such a high inventory has aggravated the oil spill risk of American and Canadian oil manufacturers, and some companies have begun to pay customers to stimulate customers to pick up the goods as soon as possible to ease the storage pressure.
A large amount of inventory accumulation has become the main driving force for the sharp drop in crude oil prices, and the sharp drop in first-line prices has also led to a lower monthly difference. After the monthly difference level exceeds a certain range, there will be a large number of investors hoarding oil arbitrage in the market. These investors make use of the relationship between crude oil inventory and large monthly difference, and repeatedly move their positions to earn monthly difference income, which indirectly promotes the occupation of some crude oil inventory by arbitrage funds and intensifies the tension in the spot market.
"Negative oil price" means that the cost of transporting oil to refineries or storing it has exceeded the value of oil itself. Affected by the epidemic, industrial and economic activities in various countries have been suspended for a long time, which is aggravating the severe situation of oversupply in the US oil market. Of course, this is only the futures price, not the spot price. A negative number does not mean that you can pay back the money for free.
Domestic oil prices may continuously trigger "reserve price" protection.
On April 28th (next Tuesday), a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open. However, because the comprehensive price of crude oil has become negative at present, the average price of crude oil will be much lower than $40/barrel during the pricing period. According to the relevant regulations of domestic refined oil price control, when the floor price is lower than the lower limit of $40/barrel, the domestic oil price will not be adjusted in the next round.
Previously, domestic oil prices have experienced two consecutive "floor price" protection. After this round is triggered again, it will usher in three consecutive rounds of suspension and downward adjustment. Therefore, the low crude oil price in the short term will not have much impact on domestic oil prices and even the automobile industry.
Some foreign analysts generally believe that crude oil futures in June may also fall below $0, so the linked crude oil price will continue to operate at a low level, and domestic oil prices are likely to trigger "floor price" protection in the future, and oil prices in the "5 yuan era" will not change at this stage. In the previous 20 16 international oil price drop, the price adjustment of domestic refined oil products had "six consecutive stops" due to the "floor price" mechanism.
The last sharp reduction of domestic oil price was in March, 2020 17, which was the biggest drop since the new pricing mechanism of 20 13 refined oil products, among which the reduction of No.92 gasoline reached 0.8 yuan/liter. Taking Beijing as an example, the current market price of No.92 gasoline is 5.50 yuan/liter, and the market price of No.95 gasoline is 5.86 yuan/liter.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.