The fuse of this round of market decline is the shortage of funds in the middle of the year and the rapid expansion of new shares. The fundamental reason is that the market rose too much before and accumulated a large number of profit-making discs. The use of leveraged funds has accelerated the early rise of the stock index, and also played a role in helping the decline, which is the inherent essence of leveraged speculative funds. The concept of state-owned enterprise reform started the stock market, and the rapid expansion of margin financing and securities lending (mainly financing, almost no bonds can be melted) formed the stock market bubble. In the case of a big bubble, only some institutions (in which foreign capital plays the role of Depth Charge) need to invest some money to short the stock index futures, and the stock index immediately drops rapidly. Leveraged margin trading suffered heavy losses, and some bulls turned to short positions (when they had to), forming a domino effect and the stock market crashed.

Short-term trend

Today, the capital flowed out, the transaction was enlarged, individual stocks rose more and fell less, the index fluctuated, and the disk was still normal. 20, 30 The oscillation above the antenna is repeated, which is better than the direct ups and downs at the opening, which is more conducive to the good market outlook.

Medium-term trend

It is not clear whether the adjustment of the medium-term trend has come to an end. Although there are some signs of improvement in the short-term market, the adjustment wave is not over in theory.

It is hard to say whether the firm offer will verify the theoretical position. C-wave can fail. If there are further measures to rescue the market, it will stop falling above the previous low of 3373, forming a double bottom and ending the second wave of adjustment.

Although the current disk has improved, it is still under the pressure of heavy moving average. Although the transaction has been enlarged, the overall situation is still shrinking. So it is irresponsible for you to say that the adjustment is over, or that you must innovate low.

secular trend

Long-term trend What can be confirmed at present is that the long-term downward trend line since 3478 in 2009 has been effectively broken, which means that the index has stepped out of the long-term downward trend for six years and entered a new upward cycle, and this trend will not change.

Comprehensive analysis: buy stocks to rise and refuse short-term fluctuations.