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Festival effect of futures
Summary of this issue

Main recommendations

In June 5438+ 10, the manufacturing PMI rose slightly by 0. 1 point, and the economic operation was stable at a low level.

The data of the insurance industry in 20 18 was released, and the premium income continued to grow.

Market review

Market comment: Short-term operation is not radical, and the mid-line can reasonably lay out targets with clear performance growth and growth certainty on dips.

Macro perspective: The official manufacturing PMI of China was 49.5% in May 438+10, which was lower than the threshold for the second consecutive month.

Insurance industry: encourage long-term insurance funds to enter the market and maintain the stability of the capital market.

Futures information

Metal energy: gold 288. 10, up 0.24%; Copper 48070, up 0.71%; Rebar 3663, down 0.41%; Rubber 1 1430, down1.25%; The PVC index was 6530, up by 0.54%; Zheng Chun 2528, up 2.18%; Shanghai Aluminum 13530, up by 0.33%; Shanghai Nickel 979 10, up1.00%; Iron ore 586.0, up1.38%; Coke 2055.0, up 0.76%; Coking coal 1278.5, up 4.11%; Fiberboard 62.30, down 3.34%; Brent oil 6 1. 16, down 0.68%.

Agricultural products: soybean oil 5748, down 0.52%; Corn 187 1, up by 0.05%; Palm oil 4784, down 0.21%; Cotton 15425, up by 0.06%; Zhengmai 24 10, down 0.12%; Sugar 50 19, up 0.16%; Apple 1004 1, down 0.23%.

Exchange rate: Euro/USD 1. 14, down 0.32%; USD/RMB 6.70, down 0.23%; USD/HK$ 7.85, up 0.05%.

Main recommendations

In June 1 and June 1, the manufacturing PMI rose slightly by 0. 1 point, and the economic operation showed a low stabilization trend.

Event: From June 2065438 to June 2009, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of China manufacturing industry was 49.5%, a slight increase of 0. 1 percentage point over the previous month.

Comments: From 2065438 to June 2009, 1, the purchasing managers' index of China's manufacturing industry rebounded, and the business activity index of non-manufacturing industry rebounded for two consecutive months, with an enlarged increase, among which the business activity index of service industry rebounded obviously. The main characteristics of manufacturing PMI this month: First, the expansion of manufacturing production has accelerated slightly. Second, the overall decline in the purchase price and ex-factory price of major raw materials has narrowed. Third, the development expectations of large enterprises are optimistic. Fourth, new kinetic energy continues to accumulate, and the holiday consumption effect appears. PMI rebounded slightly, mainly driven by the replenishment demand after the low inventory level in the raw material industry at the beginning of the year. On the other hand, overall production, new orders and price indicators are still at a low level, indicating that consumer and producer confidence is facing further downward pressure. The comprehensive PMI output index rose moderately, exceeding the high point in the fourth quarter of last year. In the month of 5438+ 10, the comprehensive output index of PMI was 53.2%, 0.6 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, and the prosperity rebounded, reflecting the overall growth rate of production and business activities of enterprises in China. The manufacturing production index and the non-manufacturing business activity index, which constitute the PMI comprehensive output index, are 50.9% and 54.7%, up 0. 1 and 0.9 percentage points respectively from last month, indicating that the role of non-manufacturing in stabilizing economic growth has been further enhanced.

(investment consultant Zhong Yanling registered investment consultant certificate number: S02606 13020024)

2. The data of the insurance industry in 20 18 was released, and the premium income continued to increase month-on-month.

Event: Recently, China Banking Regulatory Commission released 20 18 to 12 industry premium and operating status data. The original premium income of the industry was 38 billion/kloc-0.7 billion, up 3.9% year-on-year and rising continuously from the previous month.

Comments: 20 18, premium income is still growing, but the year-on-year growth rate has slowed down. At the same time, the assets of the insurance industry are gradually increasing. In terms of insurance, life insurance and health insurance continued to grow at a high speed, and the growth rate of property insurance hit a new low in the year. Life insurance, health insurance and accident insurance all achieved rapid growth, with monthly growth rates of 30.5%, 37. 1% and 20.6% respectively. The premiums of life insurance companies ended, and the annual growth rate finally turned positive; The premium growth rate of property insurance companies continued to decline, and the share of leading companies was stable; The growth rate of industry assets rebounded, benefiting from the growth rate of premiums. 16.4 1 trillion At the end of the year, the balance of industrial capital utilization increased by 10.0% year-on-year, and the growth rate reached double digits for the first time in the year. Recently, the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) said that in order to better play the role of institutional investors of insurance companies and maintain the stable and healthy development of listed companies and capital markets, the CBRC encouraged insurance companies to enter the market. Regulators actively adjust insurance investment requirements, aiming at increasing system liquidity in the short term and better serving the real economy. In the long run, the investment channels of insurance funds are more diversified, the diversity of asset allocation is improved, and the overall investment return rate of insurance funds is expected to increase. At present, the industry's PEV is 0.75, which is at a low value and optimistic about short-term value repair. In the long run, the long-term value growth trend of insurance industry, especially life insurance industry, has not changed.

(investment consultant Zhong Yanling registered investment consultant certificate number: S02606 13020024)

Market review

1, Market Comments: Short-term operation is not radical, and the mid-line can reasonably bargain for clear performance growth and certain growth targets.

The market showed a high volatility on Thursday. On the disk, SSE 50 has a great driving effect on the market, and the performance of theme stocks is relatively weak, especially in the afternoon, the signs of weight theme differentiation gradually widen. Considering that the day was mainly supported by weighted financial stocks, the overall performance of theme stocks was poor. The highlight of the market that day was the bright capital of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect and the massive inflow of foreign capital. Mid-line funds are accelerating the layout of A-share blue chips, and value investors can also pay due attention. Therefore, the short-term theme should not be pursued high, and the medium and long-term can pay due attention to the clear growth of layout performance, and the growth rate is relatively certain. The stock market is risky, so you need to be cautious in investing.

(investment consultant? Where's Gu? Registered Investment Consultant CertificateNo.: S026066 1 1020066)

2. Macro view: The official manufacturing PMI of China was 49.5% in May 438+10, which was lower than the threshold for the second consecutive month.

From 2065438 to June 2009, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry was 49.5%, a slight increase of 0. 1 percentage point over the previous month. From June 2065438 to October 2009 10, the business activity index of non-manufacturing industry in China was 54.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month, indicating that the overall expansion of non-manufacturing industry was accelerated.

(investment consultant? Where's Gu? Registered Investment Consultant CertificateNo.: S026066 1 1020066)

3. Insurance industry: encourage long-term insurance funds to enter the market and maintain the stability of the capital market.

2019 65438+128 October, Xiao, spokesman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said in an interview with the Financial Times that "insurance companies are encouraged to use long-term account funds to increase their holdings of stocks and bonds of high-quality listed companies; Allow special products to resolve the liquidity risk of stock pledge through brokerage asset management plan and trust plan. " Insurance capital is once again entrusted with the important mission of stabilizing the capital market, which is conducive to resisting interest rate risks, such as 20 18 credit default and equity pledge. Since 20 18 and 10, the regulatory authorities have successively issued the Notice of China Banking Regulatory Commission on Matters Related to the Establishment of Special Products by Insurance Asset Management Companies (Yin Bao Jianfa [2018] No.65), which encourages insurance funds to increase the investment ratio of equity and asset management products, helps to resolve systemic risks and provide long-term financial support; On the other hand, in the environment of falling interest rates and non-standard products expiring one after another, it is beneficial for insurance funds to improve the rate of return and fight against interest rate risks. ?

(investment consultant? Where's Gu? Registered Investment Consultant CertificateNo.: S026066 1 1020066)