For novices who speculate in futures, the choice of technical analysis tools is mainly based on hobbies. Some investors think that the intersection of indicators (such as KDJ indicators) is easy to understand; Some investors believe that the intersection of moving averages in different periods has a good influence on futures prices; Investors of super short-term investors believe that the change of handicap can more directly, efficiently and truly reflect the strength and direction of the market.
2. Be sure to stick to it after choosing.
Different investors have different "tastes" and choose different main learning contents. The reason for this situation is either the initial cognition, the introduction of others, the influence of past historical examples, or the influence of "first impression", and so on. There is nothing wrong with these choices of investors. The key lies in whether they can stick to it after choosing, and whether they can recognize that it is not easy to use.
3. The technical analysis of images is not necessarily easy.
Technical analysis of images (such as KDJ index, moving average system, etc. ) It is relatively low for beginners and easy to get started. However, because this technical analysis tool has undergone a certain degree of "processing" and "distortion" (the essential reflection of long and short), its effectiveness is relatively low, and further study and research are needed to improve its effectiveness. From this point of view, image technology analysis is not easier than abstract technology analysis.
4. Abstract technical analysis is not suitable for beginners.
Abstract technical analysis (such as volume-price relationship, dynamic analysis of handicap, etc.). Investors need to think further, because its basic elements are some original figures or phenomena, and only after they "process" themselves can they draw the conclusion of being bullish or bearish. Therefore, abstract technical analysis is more difficult to learn, the entry threshold is also high, it is not easy to get started, and there will be many difficulties in the learning process.
For beginners, generally speaking, technical analysis of images will be chosen. Even if they choose abstract technical analysis at first, they are likely to give up because of the difficulty and eventually turn to technical analysis of images.
5. Abstract technical analysis is more effective.
The ultimate goal of technical analysis is to judge the long and short situation so as to intervene at the right price. In the application direction, the effectiveness and accuracy of abstract technology analysis is higher than that of image technology analysis, because abstract technology analysis is based on the essential changes of space and time and is closer to reality.
The technical analysis of image is an image (graph) formed by computer "processing" calculation, which is easy to be distorted. For example, the KDJ indicator crosses up or down, and in many cases (more than half), it runs in the opposite direction after crossing.
For example, the national debt futures KDJ index (daily K-line 14 12 contract) crossed downward on June 8, 2008. According to the technical analysis of the image, it should be adjusted in the future. However, treasury bond futures only fell slightly again on June 9, 2008, and then began to rise continuously, with an increase of 65438 compared with June 8+00. This shows that there is something wrong with the technical analysis of the image (KDJ index) at this time.
However, if we adopt abstract technical analysis, such as quantity and price analysis and handicap analysis, we will come to different conclusions. On June 8 10, the price of treasury bonds futures shrank extremely, which means that the selling pressure in the callback (early long-term profit-taking disk) is not obvious, while on June 9 10, although the intraday decline was large, the low point at the end of September was supported.
In the suppression of the day, there were obvious signs of Masukura and heavy volume in the low position, indicating that there was a big fund to buy support in the suppression of the day. Then the disk gradually picked up, confirming the judgment of the change of volume and price on the disk, so the future trend of government bond futures is likely to continue to rise after full adjustment.
Therefore, two kinds of technical analysis of speculative futures will judge the trend of the same variety at the same time, and it is likely to draw different or even completely opposite conclusions. The accuracy of abstract technical analysis is obviously higher. But to make good use of abstract technical analysis, the premise is to have a solid basic skill of technical analysis, and to be able to observe it carefully and verify it before and after.