For soybeans, we also need to refer to the situation of soybeans in the United States.

On June 5438+00, USDA released the monthly supply and demand report. This report did not modify the output of American beans, but lowered the planting area of American beans, which reduced the output of American beans by 45 million bushels, and raised the export expectation, and the export increased by 75 million bushels. In addition, in the quarterly inventory report at the end of September, the initial inventory decreased by 45 million bushels, which greatly reduced the final ending inventory by 65.438+70 billion bushels. After the release of this report, the price of US soybeans did not appear the same rising market as that on the day of the release of the quarterly inventory report. This is mainly due to the limited downward adjustment of output data, which is only 6.5438+0.23 million tons less than expected last month. Although the export is expected to increase again and the ending inventory will be greatly reduced, it is within the expected range of the market. Although it was reported in June 5438+ 10 that the end-of-term inventory of American soybeans decreased significantly, the logic of the continuous upward trend of American soybean prices after September 30 was based on the substantial increase in exports. Since September 30th, the main contract price of American soybean has been rising by 70 cents/bushel continuously, and the corresponding income has basically been realized. On June 5438+ 10, the price of American soybeans will continue to rise, and it is expected to reach about 1 100 cents/bushel, but whether the price can rise sharply again depends on the actual growth of South American soybeans. Before South American soybeans enter the critical growth period, the trend of American soybean prices will slow down, and there will be no strong market that has continued to rise sharply before. For the domestic vegetable oil market, the slowdown of US soybean price trend will also stabilize the growth of domestic vegetable oil fluctuation range, and the domestic oil price trend will still tend to rise in the future, but the rhythm will be weakened.