It's the end of the year, and the New Year holiday begins. Domestic agricultural products market, the recent consumer market is limited by the follow-up factors of mask problem, and consumption is difficult to improve. Most residents rest at home. In the author's hometown, the traditional rural market is often crowded after entering the twelfth lunar month, but now it is particularly depressed, residents' consumption sentiment is biased, the turnover of restaurants and shops in mainstream cities in China is reduced, the consumption fever on New Year's Day is cooling down, and the market demand is less than expected. This has also intensified the downward pressure on a variety of domestic agricultural products. Recently, the prices of live pigs, eggs and braised chicken have fallen sharply. But with the fermentation of long and short games, some new changes have taken place in the market!

First, the price of pigs has plummeted!

During the period of 65438+February, the price of live pigs showed a "up-down-up" performance, with strong fluctuations at the beginning and end of the month. However, around 65438+mid-February, the price of live pigs fell sharply, falling by more than 32% in the month. At the end of the month, the price of live pigs was superimposed by the intensification of market sentiment, and the consumption enthusiasm increased slightly. The market has some pre-holiday stocks.

However, with the closing of 65438+February and the New Year's Day, the performance of the consumer market fell short of expectations. Judging from the market feedback, most of the pre-holiday stocking in the market has been completed, and the traditional pickling cycle in the south has also come to an end. The consumption has not been well followed up, and the price of fat pigs has fallen sharply, which has also caused panic fermentation at the breeding end, and the market price recognition sentiment and pig prices have risen sharply!

The data shows that on June 5438+February 3 1, the price of pigs dropped by 0.35 yuan/kg, and the average price of pigs dropped to 8.44 yuan/kg, and the market dropped sharply. The price of pigs in northern and southern regions of China has fallen in an all-round way, among which the price of pigs in northern market, northeast region and Heijiliao market has fallen to 7.8 yuan/kg, and the price of pigs in Sichuan-Chongqing market in high-priced areas has bottomed out in 8 yuan/kg.

The price of pigs in the northern region gradually fell below 8 yuan/kg, and the price of pigs in the southern market generally fell below 9 yuan/kg. The domestic average pig price has moved down, the consumption has not followed up smoothly, and the competition at the breeding end has increased sharply. With the gradual easing of the supply of pigs, it is less difficult for slaughterhouses to collect pigs smoothly. Due to the price reduction of vendors in the downstream market and strong consumer resistance, it is difficult for slaughterhouses to pick up the goods. Some slaughterhouses have reduced the performance of slaughtering pigs, and many slaughterhouses have increased circulation links, making the market wait and see.

In the short term, pig prices will continue to fall. Although the consumption during the New Year holiday will be slightly supported, there are still about 30% big pigs in the second fattening due to the loose stock of new pigs at the breeding end. Therefore, market competition will rebound. After the New Year holiday, the market risk will be further aggravated, and the pig price may further bottom out!

Second, the prices of eggs and chicken are higher!

In the domestic egg market, the egg price gradually got rid of the downward trend, and the market showed an oversold rebound trend. It is understood that the price of eggs in the origin market has recently dropped to 4.2 yuan/kg, and the appreciation of the price at the breeding end has become stronger, while the demand for centralized stocking has also appeared in the terminal market. Under the long-short game, the price of eggs fluctuates violently. At present, the price of eggs in the market of producing areas has risen to about 4.42 yuan/kg!

Personally, with the approach of New Year's Day and Spring Festival holidays, the operating rate of domestic food factories has gradually picked up, and the mood of enterprises to buy eggs at low prices has warmed up. In the consumer market, after the problem of masks turned positive in mainstream cities in China, most residents have recovered, and the consumption enthusiasm of some cities has gradually improved, and the consumption enthusiasm of catering has rebounded. The downstream market has a certain demand for replenishment, and the market trading enthusiasm has warmed up. Therefore, in stages, egg prices have bottomed out and rebounded!

However, since 1 month, the number of newly opened laying hens has increased greatly due to the high sentiment of feeding chickens in September. However, due to the deviation of meat and poultry prices, the consumer market is weak, and the elimination of old chickens in breeding areas is weak. Egg stocks in producing areas have gradually increased, but the boost of the consumer market is still blocked. With the centralized replenishment of food factories, the consumption fever of the group has declined. It is expected that there will still be downward pressure on egg prices, and the New Year's Day and Spring Festival holidays have weak support for the increase in egg prices.

In the pheasant market, during the period of 65438+February, due to the continuous depression of the catering industry, the price of pheasant fluctuated downward, the profit level at the breeding end collapsed, the market sentiment deteriorated, and the price of chicken seedlings fluctuated downward. According to institutional data, the average weight of chickens is 5.5 kg, the feed-meat ratio is 2. 1, the average profit of farmers drops to -5.9 yuan/chicken, and the loss pressure of farmers increases sharply!

However, the first batch of "little foreigners" gradually recovered, many enterprises resumed production, and the operating rate of slaughterhouses gradually picked up. In the consumer market, with the favorable support of New Year's Day, the demand performance gradually improved, and the bullish sentiment of enterprises warmed up. Many head breeding enterprises have rapidly raised the slaughter price of pheasants, and the domestic pheasant price has quietly increased. In some areas, the daily increase was nearly 0.8 yuan/kg.

According to institutional data analysis, recently, the domestic mainstream price of pheasant has risen sharply from 5.28 yuan/kg to about 6.04 yuan/kg. The price of pheasant in some markets has reached 6.5 yuan/kg, and the market has strengthened against the trend. In the short term, the price of pheasant still has a slight upward trend. However, due to the slow progress of consumption recovery in various places, the follow-up performance of consumption is still under pressure. After the price of pheasant rose, the breeding had a shed.

Third, soybean meal fluctuates and sorghum goes down!

65438+February came to an end, and the domestic spot soybean meal market fluctuated strongly. However, the market generally still has the mood of seeing decline! According to institutional data analysis, at present, the soybean meal price of domestic mainstream coastal oil plants, Shandong and Jiangsu is 4670 yuan/ton, while that of Guangdong coastal oil plants is 4750 yuan/ton, and the mainstream oil plants increase 10 ~ 20 yuan/ton, so the soybean meal price shows a strong fluctuation trend!

Insiders analyzed that the soybean meal market fluctuated strongly. On the one hand, influenced by international factors, the price of soybean meal rose with the market, which also aggravated the sentiment of domestic oil plants that the price was quite high, and the spot soybean meal market rebounded slightly. On the other hand, the domestic catering industry is deserted, the soybean oil in oil plants is not smooth, the price of soybean oil is lower, the profit margin of mainstream oil plants is lower, the cost of imported soybeans is higher, and the price sentiment is getting stronger!

Therefore, under the support of many parties, the price of soybean meal fluctuates strongly. However, due to the arrival of imported soybeans in Hong Kong from June to May 438+February, the delivery price of imported soybeans has generally dropped by 20~50 yuan/ton recently, of which the delivery price of soybeans in Tianjin Port has dropped to 5,460 yuan/ton, and the price in Rizhao Port in Shandong Province has dropped to 5,460 yuan/ton.

At present, the operating rate of domestic mainstream oil plants is maintained at a high level, and the average weekly crushing scale of sample oil plants is nearly 2 million tons, and the accumulation performance of soybean meal in oil plants is increasing day by day. However, with the approach of New Year's Day and Spring Festival holidays, the demand for stocking in the downstream market has gradually ended, the production capacity of feed enterprises has declined, and the demand for caution has warmed up. Therefore, the price of soybean meal still has the risk of weak operation!

In the sorghum market, the demand side is weak, and the price of sorghum in the producing area fluctuates downward. Among them, in Inner Mongolia, the delivery price of sorghum dropped to about 2.02 yuan/kg, and the price fluctuated weakly. In Chaoyang market of Liaoning, the delivery price of sorghum is 1.95 yuan/kg, which is about 4.9% lower than that at the beginning of the month!

At present, after the peak of sorghum market, the surplus grain at the grass-roots level is only 1 ~ 20%. Due to the continuous decline in the price of coarse grains at the grass-roots level, the price of coarse grains in some areas has dropped to about 1.75 ~ 1.8 yuan/kg, and farmers' reluctance to sell has intensified, resulting in a relatively low market performance! On the demand side, with the arrival of the end of the year, domestic mainstream wineries have successively completed the demand for stocking at the end of the year, and the inventory of enterprises is relatively loose. The enthusiasm for further price increase and replenishment is general, and the price of imported sorghum is low, and the traders' sentiment of shipment on rallies is getting stronger, and the demand side is lacking. However, due to the limitation of imported sorghum, the domestic sorghum price lacks support!

In addition, since the second half of 2022, due to the long-term impact of the mask problem, the catering industry has been sluggish, the mood of residents hosting banquets has deteriorated, alcohol consumption has been sluggish, and the market is dominated by home demand. However, after the release of the mask problem, residents have "turned to Yang", the recovery of the catering industry has increased, and residents' consumption is not high. The weakness of wineries before the Spring Festival on New Year's Day will further limit the rebound of sorghum prices!

When New Year's Day struck, the price of pigs dropped sharply, while egg-laying chickens rose, and soybean meal hit sorghum. What do you think of this? The above is the author's personal opinion, and the pictures are from the Internet!