According to my superficial understanding, it mainly includes the following reasons. First, it is difficult to understand and grasp the characteristics of market price fluctuations. An old trader once said: If you stay in the market long enough, you can see anything. Indeed, for a speculator engaged in futures trading, the most unforgettable thing is undoubtedly the volatility and mystery of market price changes. The uncertainty and randomness of the market always puzzle all market participants, which is an unavoidable obstacle for every speculator. In a short period of time, contingency can make fools become smart and jubilant, experts and scholars become idiots and beat their chests, and most speculators play with their hands and are at a loss. Many market participants have a misunderstanding: in order to pursue the certainty of trading, they often simply apply the scientific way of thinking to speculative trading, thinking that forecasting is all about market trading, hoping to find a scientific forecasting theory. However, the rigor and accuracy advocated by scientific methodology are not only useless to heroes in speculative markets, but also may become obstacles to success. Speculation is full of dialectics. Successful speculators cannot do without the great wisdom of dialectical thinking. Here, ambiguity is beauty, defect is beauty, and simplicity is beauty. The pursuit of technical perfection and profit limit is not beauty, but runs counter to the truth of beauty. Therefore, it is difficult to succeed in actual trading without a deep understanding and grasp of the relationship between contingency and inevitability of market prices. My own real experience is that the market price movement is often one contingency after another on the surface, but behind the seemingly complete contingency, the market is not completely chaotic, vaguely revealing some inevitability or trend. Therefore, the fluctuation of market price is both random and not completely random. The core of speculative success is to pursue and grasp this inevitability. What is a master trader? It is to be able to find relatively certain and grasped opportunities from seemingly uncertain and random market fluctuations. Knowing when the probability of successful trading is the greatest, the risk-return relationship is the most beneficial to speculators, and when speculators should stay away from watching. From the abstract level and post-employment perspective, we can clearly know the laws of market movement, but speculators are not trading the past, but the future. To deeply understand the subtle dynamic equilibrium and the evolution of the trend in the market price fluctuation, speculators need to have objective, quantitative and scientific rational analysis ability, as well as the participation of art and intuition such as flexibility, flexibility and foresight, which is the internal insight accumulated by a trader through long-term study, thinking and trading practice. Among them, the real money and physical and mental losses paid by speculators may far exceed the imagination of ordinary people, and it is by no means a day's work. Second, good risk management is difficult. The question that many investors often ask me is, are there any profit secrets, shortcuts and skills in futures operation? I can totally understand this kind of psychology. However, futures trading is a double-edged sword. The uncertainty and randomness of the market determine that speculation always has a game element. It is impossible to have scientific forecasting theory, technology and trading system to make speculators make stable profits once and for all. It is a very dangerous thing if speculators only see the high return side brought about by the success of the transaction and do not face up to the other side-the huge trading risk. There is no perfect forecasting theory and trading technology in the world, and good risk management is the foundation of speculators. Even if you learn the methods, techniques and means of successful trading, if you don't know how to face the loss, you may still fail. Therefore, I believe that futures trading is not only an art of winning, but also an art of managing and controlling risks. Many speculative masters have a very deep understanding of this. When a speculator has relatively mature trading technology, the quality of risk management directly determines the life and death of investors! Successful investors can strictly limit losses in the transaction and cut off the loss in time; On the contrary, the profit position has been done as much as possible. In this way, the profits of several large bills in the income statement can offset many small losses in a year, and the result can still reach a good profit level. The contingency and artificiality of short-term trend, the greed and fear of speculators and other psychological factors make it difficult for speculators to find a risk management strategy suitable for their own trading methods. However, no matter what kind of trading mode we choose, short-term or long-term, emotional trading or programmatic trading, we must, as always, insist that there will be no big losses in any transaction; As always, we will adopt the trading strategy of trial and overweight, stop losses quickly when the market trend is inconsistent with our own judgment, and gradually increase positions when the market trend is consistent with our own judgment to expand profits. Futures trading is a game to limit losses. Only by protecting ourselves can we effectively destroy the enemy. I divide the profit model of futures trading into two categories: holding positions to win (game type); Win by a big score (trend type). Speculators can have different trading styles, but the core of the two types of transactions is the same: expanding profits and limiting losses. Third, it is difficult to know yourself and overcome yourself. The futures market is a place full of temptations, and there seem to be countless opportunities every day. However, opportunities and traps are always twin brothers. Many people do long-term and short-term, and are busy going in and out of the market every day. They inadvertently want to win the world and seize the profits of all market fluctuations. As a result, they often fish in troubled waters and leave with hope and despair. "Spend a thousand flowers, but only two or three." In a sense, trading is a psychological game. In market transactions, speculators should make the right decisions, rather than making decisions that make them feel comfortable. Psychologically comfortable transactions often have bad results. Therefore, even if you have excellent trading technology and the most perfect fund management strategy, you can't succeed in the financial trading market if you can't strictly abide by it. Jesse Rifeimer is the greatest speculator in the history of speculation. His Memoirs of Stock Notes and Manipulation of Stock Masterpieces are both classic works in speculative circles. But this nature is suitable for speculation, has extraordinary insight into the fluctuation of stock and futures prices, and has a nearly perfect market trading strategy. A speculative genius who made tens of millions in the market from 65438 to 0929 finally committed suicide in poverty. Li's embarrassing and sad ending once made me think for a long time. On the surface, the inconsistency between knowledge and practice must be the direct cause of Rifeimer's failure, that is, knowing without doing it. From a deeper perspective, I think Rivermel's failure stems from irrational factors that human nature can't get rid of. Knowing yourself and defeating yourself, an ancient philosophical topic, seems possible, but in fact it may always be just the ideal pursued by human beings. There are three links from transaction mode to a person's market behavior: knowledge, emotion and intention. Knowing is knowing, and it is enlightenment; Love is psychological identity; It means the will to carry it out. Only the combination of knowledge and practice can determine whether speculators' trading behavior is rational or irrational. Futures speculation is not a science, nor a pure intellectual game, but a subject practice and operation process. According to my understanding, speculators are "walkers" and "ninjas" rather than "scholars" and "wise men", actions rather than words, practice rather than theory, which is one of the essential characteristics of a professional speculator. In the process of cultivating Japanese samurai, knowledge education and intellectual training are not important, but more important is the cultivation of samurai's attitude towards life and character will, including the spiritual realm of being detached from things and indifferent to fame and fortune, the calm and decisive sacrifice of spirit and action ability, the courage of a strong man to break his arm, and his super endurance to pain. Isn't all this a necessary personality trait for a typical futures trader? We must rein in the reins of self-desire, abandon the wild dream of mastering all kinds of martial arts in an attempt to defeat the market, always pursue only our own profits, maintain the peaceful mentality and realm of "taking only one scoop from a raging river", and find our own way in the dangerous trading world. This is the foundation of a smart trader. It may be enough to learn the technology and knowledge of futures trading for one or two years, but it may take a lifetime for speculators to cultivate a stable and good mentality and realize foresight and transcendence in cultivation and realm.