The "hawks" represent the perceptual United States and advocate military strikes. As long as the United States is in a strong position, the "hawks" will certainly be in a leading position in leading domestic and foreign affairs. Only when the United States is under great international and domestic pressure because of the use of force, or it may turn into a situation that is not conducive to the United States, the "hawks" will temporarily retreat to the second line.
Doves represent rational America and advocate peaceful evolution. Starting from the national interests of the United States, only when the "hawks" are in trouble for the wealth seized by the United States will the "doves" pretend to appease others. When there is a capitalist economic crisis in the United States, "doves" will retreat behind the scenes.
The United States dominated by hawks and the United States controlled by doves constitute a complete United States. In the face of national interests, there are no "hawks" and "doves". They all serve America's global strategy.
2. Interpret doves and hawks in the Federal Reserve.
Words such as Fed, Dove, Hawk, Raising Interest Rate and Not Raising Interest Rate frequently jump on major information websites and become financial events that investors attach great importance to. At one time, "doves" dominated Fed officials, and "hawks" revived. Queen Yellen used to try to find some points of convergence between hawks and doves.
3. The following is a summary of the personnel of the two factions of Fed officials:
Brenner was once one of the main doves of the Federal Reserve. Brainerd once said in his speech that the US economy and inflation level may not perform well, and the uncertainty of the overall economic outlook is higher than usual, so the Fed needs to be more patient on the inflation issue.
JohnWilliams, a representative of the "hawks" and former chairman of the San Francisco Fed, also said in his past speech that the US economy is not facing obvious recession risks, and his pace of raising interest rates by the Fed has not changed.
In February of 20 15, the Federal Reserve predicted that the unemployment rate would drop to 4.7% by the end of 20 16, and the economic output would increase by 2.4% in 20 16. In February, the unemployment rate in the United States was 4.9%, while the inflation rate was still below the target of 2%.
Since 20 15 and 12, the market's expectation for the Fed to raise interest rates has gradually cooled down. Judging from the US federal interest rate futures, the probability that the Fed will raise interest rates in February 20 16 and February 20 17 is 0.6% and 0.9% respectively, which is far lower than the median forecast of the Fed 1.375% and 2.375%. If the Fed delays raising interest rates, the forecast value of the probability of raising interest rates by the Fed will also drop.
Extended data:
Faction introduction:
1, hawks and doves
There are hawks and doves in American politics. Eagles are stronger, fiercer and more aggressive than pigeons. In the eyes of Americans, the victory of the Iraq war is the victory of the hawks. Therefore, after the United States won the Iraq war, it was not General Franks, the commander-in-chief of the front line, but Rumsfeld, the secretary of defense, who used to be a hawk. Today, American hawks still have many supporters in Congress, business circles and the press, and have a huge support network. In particular, American arms dealers are hardcore supporters of hawks.
2. Ying Chao
In the United States, the Pentagon is Inging Zhao, and Rumsfeld was once an eagle in Ying Chao. First, he is older and was born in 1932. Second, he has a relatively old seniority. He served as Secretary of Defense twice, which is unparalleled in the Pentagon. Third, he is a veteran of politics and the Cold War, and his hawkish stance has a long history. In the past American politics, Vice President Cheney, Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld and former Deputy Secretary of Defense Wolfowitz were also called hawkish "Troika". These three "eagles" once hovered over the hill of George W. Bush, affecting the national defense policy and military strategy of the United States.
References:
Hawk _ Baidu encyclopedia? Pigeon _ Baidu Encyclopedia