The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (hereinafter referred to as the Convention) was formulated in 1992, and the Kyoto Protocol (hereinafter referred to as the Protocol) was reached at the Third Conference of the Parties to the Convention held in Kyoto, Japan in February 1997. The Protocol requires more than 30 Annex I countries (including developed countries and countries with economies in transition) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 1990 >:5.2% on average during the period from 2008 to 20 12. The Protocol came into force on February 6, 2005 after the ratification of developed countries, which accounted for more than 55% of the total carbon dioxide emissions of developed countries. This indicates that the international community has entered the stage of drastically reducing greenhouse gases, and for the first time in the history of human development, there is an international legal framework to limit the interference of human activities on the carbon cycle and climate change of the earth system. Reducing carbon emissions has become one of the important goals of social and economic development and production and operation activities in various countries. The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) designed by the Protocol provides a win-win long-term action framework for greenhouse gas emission reduction. This is one of the three flexible mechanisms of the protocol design. The original intention is that countries can adopt the lowest-cost and best-effect emission reduction methods, and countries can use these mechanisms to cooperate with each other and jointly fulfill their emission reduction commitments. The mechanism allows developed countries to carry out emission reduction projects in developing countries to obtain emission reduction credits, and the implementation period is from 2000 to the first commitment period (2008-20 12). It can not only reduce the emission reduction costs of developed countries, but also enable developing countries to obtain corresponding funds and technical support through project cooperation. China can gain huge economic benefits by actively participating in the projects. It is estimated that China can provide more than half of the projects needed by the global CDM. In addition, the carbon trading market is also expected to become one of the largest markets in the world. The entry into force of the Protocol is the result of mutual compromise of political, economic, energy and environmental interests of all countries. Because countries have the same but different responsibilities in greenhouse gas emission reduction, and there are great differences in resource endowments and economic development levels, they have to pay different prices when fulfilling their emission reduction obligations, so they have to consider their respective national interests in international emission reduction negotiations, making the negotiation process a complicated process in which countries or interest groups play games in politics, economy, resources and environment.
Because the United States and Australia, which account for about 40% of greenhouse gas emissions in developed countries, have not ratified the Protocol, and the final text of the Protocol is a compromise reached after some countries made great concessions to their emission reduction obligations during the negotiation process, the significance and effect of the implementation of the Protocol are not significant. Even if the goal stipulated in the protocol can be achieved, it is still far from the ultimate goal of stabilizing climate change. Because of the high cost of greenhouse gas emission reduction, it will have an important impact on the economy. Therefore, weak developing countries cannot bear such a huge economic burden and need financial and technical assistance from developed countries. On the other hand, there is still great uncertainty about the effect of emission reduction, and the international community still has a long way to go to achieve the goal of stabilizing climate change. [1] Carbon emission-carbon trading emission model The average annual transaction volume of the global carbon trading market has reached 30 billion US dollars, and it is expected to increase significantly in the future. In Europe, enterprises can achieve the goal of meeting the emission standards by buying and selling carbon dioxide emission credit lines. Carbon emissions have become a market-oriented transaction. In the City of London, in addition to the stock, securities and futures exchanges, there are many companies specializing in carbon emissions trading. As early as 2002, Britain spontaneously established a carbon trading system. In addition, more than 60 companies listed on the Growth Enterprise Market of the London Stock Exchange are committed to developing new technologies that will help reduce carbon emissions. Although there is no carbon exchange similar to the London Stock Exchange, these large and small companies engaged in carbon emissions trading have long been United. The price of carbon emissions has been fluctuating. The price of carbon emissions delivered in 2006 was about 16.50 euros per ton (about 165 yuan RMB), while the price of carbon emissions delivered in 2007 was 17 euros. All European countries except Britain have active carbon emissions trading markets. In 2002, when the Netherlands and the World Bank first started carbon trading, the price of carbon emissions was about 5 euros per ton, and then it began to rise. In 2004, it reached 6 euros, and by the beginning of April 2006, the price per ton exceeded 3 1 euro. In 2006, the total amount of global carbon dioxide emissions trading reached $28 billion, 2.5 times that of 2005, and the volume of carbon dioxide trading reached 654.38+300 million tons. Britain and the United States are already two centers of global carbon emissions trading-the City of London and the Chicago Climate Exchange. Now, politicians and businessmen involved in carbon emissions trading have turned their eyes to Asia and China. Carbon emissions trading is an international common way to promote environmental protection by economic means, and it is the core content of clean development mechanism (CDM). 1997 The Kyoto Protocol, an important protocol under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which was accepted and signed, is the policy driving force of global carbon emissions trading. According to the Kyoto Protocol, "developed countries" have an approved greenhouse gas emission ceiling of 2008-20 12; At the same time, by 20 12, the average greenhouse gas emissions must be 5.2% lower than the level of 1990. In order to reduce the "global diffusion" of greenhouse gases, the Kyoto Protocol also stipulates that the agreed countries (currently 169 countries) promise to achieve certain carbon emission reduction targets within a certain period of time, and each country can allocate its own emission reduction targets to different domestic enterprises. When a country fails to achieve the emission reduction target as scheduled, it can purchase a certain number of quotas (or emission permits) from countries (mainly developing countries) with excess quotas (or emission permits) to complete the emission reduction target. Similarly, within a country, enterprises that fail to achieve emission reduction targets on schedule can also purchase a certain number of quotas (or emission permits) from enterprises that exceed quotas (or emission permits) to complete emission reduction targets, thus forming CDM and forming an international market for carbon emission "commodity trading". Under the policy guidance of Kyoto Protocol, Britain started the voluntary emissions trading scheme as early as 2002, and 3 1 group set emission reduction targets voluntarily according to the baseline of 1998-2000, including 6 greenhouse gases. In 2005, the EU greenhouse gas emissions trading system was launched, covering 25 EU member countries, including nearly 12000 industrial entities that emit carbon dioxide during combustion, thus making the EU the largest carbon emissions trading market in the world. The City of London is the center of European carbon emissions trading market. In 2006, its carbon emissions trading volume exceeded 20 billion euros, which has doubled over the years. "Standing at the forefront of environmental protection issues has brought tangible benefits to this financial city." Michael Snyder, Chairman of the Policy and Resources Committee of the City of London Authority, commented on the carbon emissions trading in the City of London. At present, the United States has not signed the Kyoto Protocol, and has formulated a development and emission reduction plan of "reducing gasoline consumption by 20% within 10". Founded in 2003, Chicago Climate Exchange is the world's first professional market platform with greenhouse gas emission reduction as its goal and trading content. It includes carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, total oxides and sulfur hexafluoride, and has more than 200 members, which is enough to make it the center of carbon emissions trading in the United States. The main reason for carbon emissions and global warming is that humans use a lot of fossil fuels (such as coal and oil). In the past century, a lot of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide have been emitted. Because these greenhouse gases have high permeability to visible light radiated by the sun and high absorption to long-wave radiation reflected by the earth, they are often called "greenhouse effect", which leads to global warming. The consequences of global warming will redistribute global precipitation, melt glaciers and frozen soil and raise sea level, which will not only endanger the balance of natural ecosystems, but also threaten human food supply and living environment. Carbon emission-countermeasures to actively deal with different from other pollutants, CO2 emission reduction has great technical difficulties. At present, there are three main technical directions and choices. First, adopt fossil energy substitution technologies, mainly including clean energy substitution technologies, renewable energy technologies and new energy technologies (nuclear energy has been excluded from joint implementation and CDM mechanisms); Second, improve energy efficiency, and then reduce CO2 emissions by reducing energy consumption; The third is carbon fixation and biological carbon sink technology. In addition, fiscal and financial policies such as taxation can accelerate the process of technological transformation, optimize the allocation of resources and reduce the cost of emission reduction in the whole society. (1) The effect of energy structure adjustment and emission reduction is obvious, but it is difficult.
Judging from the current situation, in the short term, the role of changing the energy structure through energy substitution technology is limited. It is possible for human beings to adopt low-carbon or carbon-free alternative energy technologies, but there is still a long way to go. Therefore, the possibility and effect of mutual substitution of existing energy sources are emphatically studied. On the basis of considering the complex interaction of various aspects of the macroeconomic system, a general equilibrium model with emission reduction policy as the core is initially established, and the policies such as energy structure adjustment, economic structure adjustment and carbon tax collection are simulated and analyzed by using this model. The main conclusions are as follows. In the energy consumption of China in 2003, the proportion of coal was 67. 1%, and the proportion of natural gas was 2.8%. If the proportion of coal use is reduced by 1 percentage point and replaced by natural gas, CO2 emissions will be reduced by 0.74%, GDP will be reduced by 0.64% and residents' welfare will be reduced by 0.60%. The production costs of all departments will generally increase, among which the power sector will be the most affected, and the average cost will increase by 0.60%. If the proportion of "replacing coal with gas" is 5%, CO2 emissions will be reduced by 4.9%, GDP will be reduced by 2.0%, residents' welfare will be reduced by 2.0%, and the average cost of power sector will increase by 2.4%. Therefore, the consequence of energy structure adjustment is that on the one hand, CO2 emissions will be significantly reduced, on the other hand, GDP growth will slow down, and residents' welfare will be affected to some extent. In the process of building a well-off society in an all-round way, the economy must maintain a certain growth rate. Therefore, even in the case of sufficient energy supply, the speed of energy structure adjustment should not and cannot be too fast. (2) Implement cleaner production
Technology and improving energy efficiency are the most effective methods. According to the above forecast, even if more active energy policies are adopted, including increasing the proportion of renewable energy such as oil and gas and clean energy, China's coal consumption will still account for about 60% in 2020. However, due to cost and other problems, carbon sequestration and related carbon sink technologies are difficult to popularize. Therefore, the most feasible and effective technical emission reduction measures are to improve energy efficiency by adopting technologies such as cleaner production, especially the clean utilization technology of coal will play a very important role in the next 15 years. Energy efficiency technology can not only reduce energy utilization, reduce emissions and improve cost-effectiveness, but also exert greater potential through technology transfer, so it is the first choice for CDM projects. In addition, in agriculture, improve the utilization rate of chemical fertilizers. On the premise of ensuring crop yield, reducing the use of chemical fertilizers plays an important role in reducing CO2 emissions and protecting the environment in the process of chemical fertilizer production. China's implementation of "Kyoto Protocol" (3) to increase the carbon absorption of terrestrial ecosystems will help alleviate the potential pressure on China to reduce emissions.
Afforestation, forest land restoration, high-yield forest management, logging management, forest fire prevention and pest control can increase forest carbon sequestration and reduce carbon emissions. According to preliminary estimation, the carbon sequestration potential of six key forestry projects implemented in China is about 20 billion tons, and the duration is about 100 year. Reasonable agricultural management measures (including balanced fertilization, reasonable planting, increasing straw returning, less tillage and no tillage, etc.) and reducing soil erosion can greatly improve the carbon fixation capacity of agricultural soil. According to the current field research results, under the condition of applying organic fertilizer, soil organic matter will increase, with an average increase range of 8.52 ~ 59.78 g/(m2 yr), except for some areas in Northeast China. Returning crop straw to the field, similar to applying organic fertilizer, can increase the content of soil organic matter, with an average increase of 45.24 g/(m2 yr). No-tillage and less tillage can increase soil organic carbon 134.5438+0 and 208.74g/(m2· year) respectively. In China's agricultural production, active application of organic fertilizer and popularization of straw returning to field and no-tillage have great carbon sequestration potential in farmland ecosystem soil. According to preliminary estimation, the existing carbon storage of forest vegetation is only 44.3% of the potential storage, and the existing carbon storage of soil is only 90% of the potential storage. The main measures to increase grassland carbon sink include rational grazing, irrigation, fertilization and variety improvement. In addition, the alpine wetlands in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the wetlands in Northeast China and the wetlands distributed in many river basins are all huge carbon pools, so it is of great strategic significance to bring them into the carbon management framework of terrestrial ecosystems. At present, the carbon sinks of China's ecosystem that meet the Kyoto Protocol account for 4% ~ 6% of the total industrial CO2 emissions. By 2020, this carbon sink can be increased by 2-4 times, accounting for 7%-8% of the total industrial CO2 emissions. Strengthening the carbon absorption and management of terrestrial ecosystems can alleviate the pressure of greenhouse gas emission reduction faced by China to a certain extent and win space and time for accelerating China's industrialization process. 4) The negative impact of carbon tax on the whole economy should not be underestimated.
If the market means of carbon tax is adopted to achieve the emission reduction target of 5% or 10%, the carbon tax of 90.7 1 yuan and 192.9 yuan per ton of carbon will be levied respectively. If all the carbon tax collected is used to return to residents, the tax rate will increase slightly. In the case of carbon tax, the production costs of all departments will increase, and the increased costs of power sector are 5.78% and 12.07%, steel sector is 0.9 1.94%, and post and telecommunications industry is 0. 128% and 0.263% respectively. If we combine the measures of adjusting energy structure with carbon tax, we can get a scheme with slightly lower total social cost. For example, "coal to gas" is 1%, and the carbon tax is 82. 1 yuan/ton of carbon, which can achieve the total emission reduction target of 5%, while the welfare of residents will be reduced by 0.78%, and GDP will be reduced by 1.5 1%.
In a word, the adoption of carbon tax and energy structure adjustment policy has a great negative impact on the whole economy. 5) Consumption behavior plays an important role in energy saving and emission reduction.
At present, there are more studies on energy saving and energy efficiency improvement in production activities, but less on residents' living energy consumption. In fact, from 1999 to 2002, about 26% of China's total energy consumption and 30% of its CO2 emissions were caused by residents' life behaviors and economic activities to meet the needs of these behaviors. After research, there is a huge space for saving energy consumption of residents. On the premise of basically not lowering the living standard, only energy saving in housing, automobiles, motorcycles and household appliances can save 2 1.763 million tons of standard coal, accounting for 1.0% of the energy consumption of residents' living activities in 2002, which is equivalent to reducing CO2 emissions 1.628 tons of carbon every year. Carbon emission-emission reduction target China: By 2020, carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be reduced by 40%-45% compared with 2005; [2]
United States: Greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced by 17% in 2020 compared with 2005. South Korea: In order to reduce carbon emissions, the most stringent of the three plans under consideration will be implemented in the next 10 year, so that the carbon emissions in 2020 will be reduced by 30% compared with the normal level. [