Because from September last year to June this year, there was a price increase tide of urea that was not seen in 10 year. This phenomenon was not obvious before, but after February, the price rose sharply in an unusual way, exceeding the highest level of 2800 yuan/ton. Some farmers say that one ton has gone up 1000, which is rare in history, and it is true.
So in September this year, will urea return to last year's price level? We must look at it this way.
First of all, the price of urea began to fall in the past two weeks, and the decline was not small. Since the beginning of August, the price of urea has been loosened, mainly because the demand for urea in agricultural production has decreased, the top dressing of spring corn and summer corn has ended, and the top dressing of tea in southern China has also ended. Agriculture, which accounts for more than half of urea demand, has no demand, which means that the possibility of pushing urea prices up is reduced by half. In the past two weeks, the price of urea has been reduced by about 400 yuan. Today, August 27th, urea in Shanxi has dropped to about 2,300 yuan/ton, and urea in Shandong has also dropped to about 2,400 yuan/ton. In this way, it will continue to fall.
Then the industrial demand has also changed, and some plywood production enterprises have also weakened, which is related to the international market demand and the US dollar monetary policy. Agricultural demand decreases, so does industrial demand, which has a great impact on urea. Under the condition of market regulation, urea enterprises have to cut prices obediently.
In addition, we also pay attention to the raw materials, coal and natural gas used in urea production. The main reason for the previous price increase was that the price of raw materials rose too fast. Recently, some coal production indicators have been released, the total supply has increased, the pace of coal price increase has slowed down, and the cost of urea production enterprises has also been reduced. But what will happen after that, you have to pay attention to the market at any time.
According to insiders, the urea level before the end of September this year was about 2 100 yuan, which was about the same as last year in 400 yuan. Moreover, from the reality, it is difficult for urea to drop to the level of the same period last year. Some large grain growers also analyzed that if urea fell below 2000, he was prepared to reserve it. Of course, this is also a prediction. You can observe the urea raw material market at any time, pay attention to the production progress of compound fertilizer enterprises, and safely predict the lowest price level of urea this year.
I think urea has been hovering and rising since February, and it didn't rise linearly until April. It's a little sudden, but it's also a sign. The same trend cannot be repeated. It is better to look at the urea market more sexually. If coal and natural gas stop rising, then urea can be used below 2000.