1, market behavior is inclusive and digests all information. \x0d\\x0d "Market behavior is inclusive and everything is digested" constitutes the basis of technical analysis. Technical analysts believe that any factor that can affect the futures price of a commodity-fundamental, political, psychological or any other aspect-is actually reflected in its price. Therefore, what we must do is to study the price changes. This sentence \x0d\ is the core of technical analysis, and I also think this sentence is 100% correct. In other words, it is this sentence that makes me believe in technical analysis. When tracking price changes, we have actually included the so-called fundamentals. Because in most cases, we may directly infer the strength of fundamentals from the strength of price trends. But there is a key word here that is everything. All the information not only refers to the fundamentals, but also includes the so-called noise-participants' emotions \x0d\ their cognition of the fundamentals, including traders' deviation from the cognition of the fundamentals, which is also included in the price. In fact, price changes are mostly accompanied by these deviations. Generally speaking, when the price deviates significantly from the fundamentals, it is usually at the bottom and top of the market. At this point, participants are usually too pessimistic and optimistic, and deviate greatly from the fundamentals. Therefore, we have to distinguish the proportion of noise in the market when we understand and apply it. This is why the rhythm of market price changes and fundamental changes is usually inconsistent. I think it should be Soros who put forward the so-called mainstream prejudice. \x0d\ In addition, in the commodity market, there are sometimes forced positions, and there are also behaviors such as making money in the stock market. At this time, the price change is basically only related to the chips of both parties. At this time, this extreme market is basically like gambling, depending on the financial strength of both sides. \x0d\\x0d\ 2. Market operation evolves in a trend way. The concept of \ x0d \ x0d \ trend is the core of technical analysis. It can be naturally inferred from "the price evolves in a trend way" that for a given trend, the next step is often to continue to evolve in the direction of the existing trend, and the possibility of turning around and reversing is much less. This is of course the application of Newton's law of inertia. In other words: the current trend will continue until it turns around and reverses. Although this sentence is almost repeated in the same language, what I want to emphasize here is: unswervingly follow an established trend until there are signs to the contrary. \x0d\ According to my own observation, the reliability of this concept is about 80%. In fact, not only the price changes follow the trend, but also the development of many objective things in the world is formed according to the trend. Summer will not directly enter winter, and day will not suddenly turn into night. There must be a gradual change process until it reaches its peak and reverses. And the probability I just said mainly refers to when we usually analyze the trend. Trends and price changes are objective and will not cause the ups and downs of the market itself, while our judgment on trends is subjective, so there is a probability problem, so various technical analysis methods are also emerging. As for how to distinguish and grasp the trend, as the saying goes, different people have different opinions, and many times we have to rely on a friend-luck. \ \x0d\\x0d\ 3. History will repeat itself. \ x0d \ x0d \ Technical analysis and market behavior are inextricably linked with people's psychology. For example, the price pattern is expressed by some specific price chart shapes, which show people's optimism or pessimism about a certain market. In fact, these figures have been widely known and classified in the past few hundred years. Since they have been effective in the past, we might as well think that they will be equally effective in the future, because they are based on human psychology, and human psychology has always been "a leopard cannot change its spots". "History will repeat itself" means that the key to the future is hidden in history, or that the future is a copy of the past. History will repeat itself, but in different ways! There are no two identical leaves in reality. Investors often seek the "truth" of investment in similar historical changes, but in the end they are scarred, which also shows that the market is endless. The two K-lines, Yin and Yang, can construct the ups and downs of Wall Street in the past century. Just because K-lines are similar but not similar, history repeats itself without repeating itself.