1, the market interest rate is negatively correlated with the expected yield of national debt, that is, when the market interest rate drops, the expected yield of national debt rises, and when the market interest rate rises, the expected yield of national debt falls. Therefore, the decline in national debt means that the market interest rate will rise and monetary policy is expected to tighten.

2. The relationship between supply and demand also affects the rise and fall of national debt. When the domestic economy improves, investors think that the income from buying stocks and funds will be much higher than the income from buying government bonds, which will lead to the supply of government bonds in the market exceeding the demand of investors, thus the government bonds will fall.

3. If a country's economic prospects are not optimistic, the possibility of default increases, and the country's credit sovereignty declines, foreign capital will sell the country's national debt and withdraw, leading to its decline.

Second, there are hidden concerns about tightening liquidity.

1. Judging from the reasons for the decline of 10-year treasury bond futures, it is generally believed that the interest rate in the primary market will go up. Judging from the trend of Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate Shibor today, the overnight lending rate has increased by 50 basis points, which also proves this point.

2. Next, the inflationary pressure in the market continues to decline. In particular, the prices of electricity, feed and oil are expected to rise recently. It is only a matter of time before PPI inflation is transmitted to CPI. At this time, if Yang Ma rashly reduces RRR in an all-round way, it may aggravate inflationary pressure.

3. Considering that there are specific drugs on the market in COVID-19 to cooperate with vaccination, it is debatable whether it is necessary to completely lower the standard.

4. Coupled with the RRR cut expectation of Ma Yang in June 5438+ 10, the market is increasingly worried about whether Ma Yang will not honor the RRR cut and adopt structural policies to support the real economy.

5. If the MLF of the central bank has not been lowered at the expiration of the month, the market's expectation of marginal liquidity tightening will continue to increase, which will directly benefit the high-level and high-valuation growth sector that is extremely sensitive to liquidity.

Third, coping strategies.

1, control positions and lighten positions, and wait patiently for a new direction with low uncertainty.

2. Short-term funds in the chaotic period will like speculation, mainly including oversold, sub-new shares and ST.

3. At this time, the mid-line funds will focus on defensive sectors with high dividends and low valuation, and banks and insurance deserve special attention.

4. Varieties with bargaining power in consumption, such as liquor, beer, condiments and dairy products.

5. You must choose to consume agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery.

The above contents are only personal opinions for your reference!