First, the risks faced by enterprises
1, procurement risk
In recent years, the prices of iron ore and coke have continued to rise. According to statistics, in the first half of this year, the average manufacturing cost of steelmaking pig iron in large and medium-sized steel production enterprises increased by 57.57%, and the manufacturing cost increased by10/53 billion yuan in May. Coupled with the rising cost during the period and the adjustment of export tariffs and tax rebate rates, the total increased cost reached 234 billion yuan. However, with the spread of the subprime mortgage crisis, the global economic downturn has also led to a decline in iron ore prices, and the ore purchased by enterprises in the early stage has also depreciated. By the end of June, 65438+1October, 65438+May, the amount of iron ore pressed to Hong Kong has reached 89 million tons, which is in a state of supersaturation, equivalent to 2-3 months' import, and the iron ore inventory of steel mills has generally reached more than 4 months. However, due to the high cost and weak demand, Tangshan, where small steel mills are most concentrated, has stopped production by 60%. The fluctuation of ore price greatly increases the risk of enterprises in the procurement stage. To sum up, the risks are: after the purchase of raw materials, before the processing is completed or before the finished products are not sold, the prices of finished products fall or the prices of raw materials and finished products fall together.
2. Sales risk
Due to the high CPI index in China, stabilizing prices has become the top priority of China's economic work. Under the influence of this environment, the production cost of enterprises has risen sharply, but the sales price of products has risen relatively little, which has squeezed the sales profit of enterprises. Recently, with the macro-control, the CPI index has declined, and the iron ore price has also begun to decline. However, the peak position of product sales price has been basically determined, and there has also been a downward trend. Since the third quarter, domestic and foreign steel prices have fallen sharply from the peak, and domestic steel prices such as rebar have fallen by 37%, which has also increased the sales risk of enterprises. Risks are divided into: the decline in sales price or the difficulty in selling finished products will directly affect the sales profit of enterprises.
Moreover, because China iron and steel enterprises are increasingly dependent on imported iron ore, the price of iron ore is rigid. This also shows from the side that the iron ore import pricing power is not in the hands of China iron and steel enterprises, which leads to the inability of iron and steel enterprises to control costs and lock in profits.
Second, iron and steel enterprises use listed futures varieties to optimize enterprise management
1, the use of "wire rod, rebar" futures varieties has strong reference significance.
With the price fluctuation of raw materials and steel becoming more and more violent, the voice of steel futures listing in the whole steel industry is getting higher and higher. However, due to the variety and specifications of steel products in China, it is feasible to choose ordinary wire rod and rebar if there are many difficulties in listing steel products in the futures market as a whole. First of all, China is the largest producer of ordinary wire and rebar in the world. Secondly, the standards of ordinary wire and rebar are relatively simple, which is conducive to the standardization of delivery. So can iron and steel enterprises operate these two "quasi-market varieties" to establish a new marketing model?
The answer is yes, iron and steel enterprises can get the expected trend by analyzing the varieties of wire rods listed in the futures market at present, that is to say, we can selectively hedge the futures market with the prices of listed varieties as a reference in the production and operation process. In order to achieve the purpose of "walking on two legs" in the spot and futures markets.
2. Comparison of current marketing models
Secondly, due to the existence of pre-payment orders, credit sales and other settlement methods in the spot transaction process, this method greatly reduces the liquidity of enterprises, increases the funds available for reproduction, and is not conducive to the production and operation of enterprises. Moreover, once the buyer defaults and refuses to pay for the goods, the seller's enterprise will bear all the risks and suffer heavy losses. Therefore, selling on credit not only increases the time cost of enterprises, but also makes enterprises bear the credit risk to a great extent.
If you choose to sell through the futures market, you can completely overcome the above shortcomings of spot trading. First, there is no default. When the seller registers the warehouse receipt in the futures market, once the buyer is willing to receive the goods, they will form a pair according to the relevant regulations of the commodity exchange, and then the two parties will hand over the goods within a certain period of time according to the regulations, which fully realizes the "one-handed payment and one-handed delivery" and ensures the sufficient liquidity of the enterprise. Once the matching is successful, if the buyer refuses to receive the goods in breach of contract, he shall pay a certain percentage of liquidated damages and compensation to the seller in accordance with relevant regulations. Take copper for example. If the buyer breaches the contract, it must pay the seller 20% of the contract value as liquidated damages and compensation. For the seller, not only did not lose the goods, but also got a lot of compensation. Secondly, it greatly improves the utilization rate of funds and reduces the cost of funds. The futures market conducts margin trading. Generally, you only need to use about 65,438+00% margin to buy and sell. If the delivery date is approaching, increasing the capital will probably reduce the capital cost by about 75% compared with the spot and greatly improve the capital utilization rate. Third, there is basically no credit sale in the futures market, which avoids the "difficult problem of collecting accounts". Because the final delivery of the futures market requires buyers and sellers to go through the futures exchange, the seller's goods and the money he bought must be printed on the account of the exchange in advance, and then delivered after the funds are transferred, thus avoiding the occurrence of credit sales.
3. Other advantages of the futures market
(1) Expand sales channels
Futures market delivery is different from spot trading, and the diversification of futures delivery methods also makes enterprises use futures market to establish marketing models, which increases the flexibility of their business. Iron and steel enterprises can also realize spot sales in advance through futures cash-out business, and the futures market provides enterprises with unique advantages.
(2) Providing arbitrage trading opportunities
According to the price difference between steel futures price and spot price, futures arbitrage and cross-contract arbitrage are carried out to increase the operation mode of enterprises. For example, when the steel futures price is higher than the spot price, it can be sold in the futures market. In this way, the operating enterprise can not only realize normal profits, but also obtain additional spread profits when the futures price is higher than the spot price. Enterprises can choose to close their positions or deliver them.
(3) Convenient inventory management
The fundamental feature of the futures market lies in the difference of various forward contract prices, and its tangible performance is commodity inventory. In the futures market, the inventory value reflects the tangible cost of warehousing, the cost of capital and the expectation and judgment of the relative scarcity of commodities in the future. The first two directly manage the product inventory of the enterprise. The quotation of contracts in different months in futures provides a good reference for enterprise inventory management. According to the enterprise sales plan, virtual inventory can also be established in the futures market, and spot inventory can also be sold and preserved.
4. When the following opportunities appear in the futures market, several strategies can be adopted.
(1) bearish hedging
When the futures price is overvalued or has exceeded the average sales target price of the enterprise, the enterprise can take hedging operation to lock in the normal profits of the enterprise, prevent the annual shrinkage or loss of profits caused by the drop in spot prices, and ensure the normal production and operation profits of the enterprise.
(2) Maintain a certain inventory ratio, sell spot or near-forward contracts at high prices, and buy forward contracts at low prices.
When the recent spot price or futures contract price is higher than the forward futures price, and the enterprise has a certain inventory, the enterprise can adopt the strategy of selling near and buying far to realize the conversion from century inventory to virtual inventory, reduce the normal sales cost of the enterprise and improve the utilization rate of funds.
(3) Appropriate investment in forward contracts for hedging.
When the recent spot price or futures contract price is lower than the forward futures contract price, the enterprise can appropriately hedge by throwing in the forward contract without affecting the normal spot sales, so as to maximize the profit while locking in the normal profit.
(4) buy the virtual buy of hedging forward.
When the futures price is undervalued or lower than the general cost of the enterprise, the enterprise can use the futures market to buy hedging and lock in the cost. 、'