20 1 1 year global copper concentrate output is expected to increase slightly by 0.26%. Strikes, declining ore grade and delayed production of new projects are the main reasons for the slowdown in output growth. Although some new smelters were put into operation in China, the Japanese copper smelter was once shut down due to the earthquake, which eased the tight supply of 20 1 1 copper concentrate market. On the whole, the global copper concentrate supply of 201/kloc-0 is about130,000 tons. As the strike subsides and new copper projects in Chile and Zambia are put into operation, it is estimated that the global copper concentrate output will increase by 9.4% in 20 12, and the supply gap of copper concentrate is expected to further narrow.
So far, there is no unified long-term single price of copper concentrate 20 12 in the market. 20 12 may form a regional long-term single price of copper concentrate. For example, at present, the TC/RC of copper concentrate in China market basically refers to the price of $60.5/ton reached with Anglo-American resources, while the smelting enterprises in Europe and Japan refer to the price of $63.5/ton reached with Freeport. Obviously, there is no unified annual benchmark price for copper concentrate. The long-term single regional price may also be temporary, and it is not excluded that the average price system based on global representative prices will be adopted in the future.
20 1 1 year global copper production increased by 4.3%, and it is expected to reach19.83 million tons. Driven by the increase in production capacity, the output of China Electric Copper reached 565,438+096,000 tons in 2065,438+065,438+0, an increase of 65,438+04.6% over the previous year. However, the output of other major copper producers in the world has declined. Affected by strikes, weather and other factors, the output of 20 1 1 Chile electrolytic copper decreased by about 6.0%. Affected by the earthquake, the output of electric copper in Japan decreased by about 15%. It is estimated that the global copper output will increase by 3. 1% in 20 12 years.
20 1 1 domestic copper concentrate output 1.267 million tons, an increase of about 9.6%. Affected by the increase of domestic copper concentrate supply, the delay of new copper smelting projects and the digestion of copper concentrate stocks by copper smelters, the copper concentrate imports in China decreased slightly by 20 1 1 .4%. The decrease in processing cost of copper concentrate and the upside-down market prices at home and abroad have also inhibited the procurement of smelting enterprises to some extent. In 20 12, the newly-built smelting capacity in China will be put into production one after another. Considering the current inventory situation of smelting enterprises, it is estimated that the demand for imported copper concentrate will increase by more than 15%, and the annual import of copper concentrate is expected to exceed 7 million tons.
20 1 1 year, the import of electric copper in China was 2.83 million tons, down 2.98% from the previous year. The export volume of electrolytic copper was 1.55 million tons, up by 30 1%. Affected by many factors, such as increasing financing demand, shortage of scrap copper, favorable import price, and the fact that some enterprises need to use up the foreign exchange quota at the end of the year, copper imports in February and October reached 407,000 tons, up more than 70% year-on-year, much higher than the monthly average of 235,000 tons imported copper in 20165,438, which became the main reason for pushing up copper prices in the international market. With the price upside down and the current weak spot market, it is estimated that the import of copper may drop sharply in 201June.
Driven by the growth of investment in power grid construction, copper consumption in the power industry has maintained a considerable growth, which has become the driving force for copper consumption growth. In addition, in the first half of 20 1 1, the production and sales of household appliances industry were booming, which was generally better than expected. Especially for air conditioners with high copper consumption, 20 1 1 maintained rapid growth in the first three quarters. In the second half of the year, affected by the decline in export growth, the growth rate of household appliance production began to slow down, which reduced the demand for copper consumption to some extent. 20 1 1 the growth rate of automobile production slowed down, only increasing by 0.84% year-on-year; At the same time, the government's regulation of the real estate industry has also affected the demand for copper construction wire and related copper products in the construction industry. In addition, railway construction began to slow down in the second half of 20 1 1, which became a negative factor affecting the growth of electricity and copper consumption.
Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, domestic copper consumption was very light in June 2065438+02. Affected by the shortage of funds and market uncertainty, the production inventory of most copper processing enterprises is at a low level. It is estimated that by February, the production of copper enterprises will slowly recover. 20 12 Various factors affecting copper consumption are complicated. The negative factors affecting the growth of copper consumption mainly include: the government's continuous regulation and control policies on the real estate industry will continue to affect the consumption demand of copper in the construction industry to a certain extent; Secondly, the expiration of policies such as "home appliances going to the countryside" and "old appliances for new ones" will also affect the domestic demand of the home appliance industry. At the same time, affected by the economic downturn in the euro zone, the growth rate of home appliance exports will further slow down. All these will affect the consumer demand for copper in the home appliance industry. On the positive side, the rapid growth of power investment will continue to promote copper consumption; The tight domestic monetary policy is expected to be eased in 20 12, and the growth of automobile production is expected to resume; Based on the above reasons, it is estimated that the growth rate of copper consumption in China will drop to 6% in 20 12.
The copper price is 20 12. By the end of June 65438+ 10, the inventory of the three major exchanges had decreased by about 40,000 tons compared with the end of February last year. At the same time, boosted by the substantial increase in copper imports from China in June 65438+February, the short-term shutdown of Japanese and Philippine smelters caused LME copper prices to break through the previous resistance level of $8,000, and once approached the high of $8,700. In sharp contrast to the rise in copper prices, the domestic spot market transactions are very light, and most of the spot transactions in 65438+ 10 are discounted. The sharp rise in copper prices has restrained some consumers from buying in the short term, and most copper processing enterprises still hold a wait-and-see attitude. From a fundamental point of view, with the end of the Spring Festival holiday of some copper processing enterprises, some consumers will buy in the short term, thus forming a certain support for copper prices around 58,000 yuan. From the perspective of the whole year, due to the global macroeconomic uncertainty and the general trend of slowing domestic economic growth, it is estimated that the motivation for the sharp rise of 20 12 copper price is insufficient. If there is no large-scale shutdown caused by general strikes or other factors, it is difficult for copper prices to surpass last year's high price.
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