It is understood that metals such as copper and aluminum affected by the earthquake in Japan have been sighing recently: they are all commodities. How can the gap be so big? It is the unique steel that makes them sigh. Surprisingly, despite the growing global panic about the earthquake in Japan, the rebar futures price in Shanghai rose instead of falling this week. The weirdest thing is that rebar futures continue to lighten up. In fact, from the international market, the prospect of steel prices is not good. The spot steel platform Nishimoto Shinkansen predicts that the earthquake in Japan may frustrate the global demand for iron ore, because at least five large steel mills in Japan have stopped production in this earthquake, which may last as long as six months. Five steel mills located in Tokyo Bay by three steel manufacturers, including Nippon Steel, were structurally damaged and could not be recovered in a short time, and the terminal facilities of these steel mills could not operate. Assuming that these steel mills stop production for six months, the seaborne iron ore market may lose 22.2 million tons of iron ore demand. In addition, according to the information held by the platform, many enterprises such as Nippon Electric, Tokyo Iron and Steel, Pacific Metal, New Beihai Iron and Steel, Shimizu Iron and Steel, and Japanese Metallurgy also suffered different degrees of personnel and power equipment losses.
Japan's steel industry relies almost entirely on imports for raw materials and fuels. According to the relevant information disclosed by Japan Iron and Steel Union, its average sea transportation distance is over 6,000 nautical miles. 2011June data show that 82% of the 3.473 million tons of steel exported by Japan are in the Asian market. According to the analysis of historical data, South Korea accounts for about 25% of Japan's export target market share, China accounts for about 15% of Japan's export target market share, and other Southeast Asian countries account for Japan's export target. The first characteristic of Japanese steel industry layout is that large-scale factories are built along the coast, and steel joint ventures are mostly concentrated in the Pacific belt region formed by five industrial zones: Keihin, Hanshin, Zhongjing, Seto Inland Sea and Kitakyushu. The steel production in this area once accounted for 87.3% of Japan's, and the consumption accounted for 83.9%. The impact of the earthquake and tsunami on shipping will also reduce the short-term factory operating rate and raw material demand. According to the agency, if the shutdown cycle hypothesis is established, about 3.5 million tons of iron ore will be sold to miners every month, which will undoubtedly help ease the global iron ore supply.
However, it should be noted that the impact of the earthquake on steel prices is relatively limited. Japan has equity investment in the mine itself, so the influence of mine price on downstream products is limited. After 1/4 of Japan's land area is hit by the earthquake, it will increase the rigid demand for infrastructure construction, so we can't expect too much from the improvement of global iron ore supply, and steel prices may be "structurally firm". Sheng Zhicheng, manager of the information department of Nishimoto Shinkansen, said that the earthquake may increase the expectation of increasing domestic steel exports. In the face of orders from all over Asia, domestic suppliers should be alert, and it is natural to raise their quotations appropriately. Specifically, some mid-range steel products, such as hot-rolled coil, medium and heavy plate, stainless steel, galvanized steel plate, cold-rolled wide strip and other products, have certain alternative competitiveness in China. The quality and quantity of China's products in this field should basically meet the market demand. In addition, some high value-added steel prices will continue to be high. For example, in 20 10, Japan exported 6 million tons of special steel products, such as rails, sheet piles, some steel products, and steel for miniature bearings. Due to some technical requirements and advanced technology, it is understandable that the international market price remains high.
The accuracy of the above estimate depends on the extent to which the Japanese steel industry will be affected. According to the current situation, the factory of JFE (the second steel enterprise in Japan, formed by the merger of former Japanese steel pipe and Kawasaki Steel Works) in Chiba City caught fire in the earthquake, and Sumitomo Metal's Kashima Steel Works also stopped production. However, the earthquake may not bring too many benefits to the varieties of construction steel, and the previous import data of such steel in Japan can be basically ignored. "Therefore, investors must be cautious about the rebound of steel. Earthquakes are no reason to make more rebar. Shanghai rebar prices have been falling unilaterally for most of the time since February. This week's rally may just make up for it, and the funds are in a panic. Weak varieties in the early stage of settlement. " An analyst said. Sheng Zhicheng also said: "The earthquake is not enough to change the supply and demand pattern of domestic construction steel such as rebar. It can only be said that China's potential export expectations are increasing, and relevant commercial enterprises should pay attention to adjusting export quotations. "