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What is the impact of purchasing and storage on the trend of pig prices?
On July 7, the Ministry of Commerce, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance and other relevant departments started the first batch of central reserve pork storage in 20021year, with a total amount of 20,000 tons. Why does the country temporarily store and store pork? How will purchasing and storage affect the trend of pig price? Play the role of pork reserve regulation Since the beginning of this year, domestic pork prices have fallen for 22 consecutive weeks, and the whole industry has suffered serious losses. The temporary storage of pork was started on the basis of excessive price drop. How to judge that the pig price has fallen too much? First of all, we must understand a concept: pig-grain ratio. The ratio of pig to grain is the ratio of the price of live pigs to the price of corn as feed. The price of pig food is the ratio of the weekly appearance price of pigs monitored and counted by the National Development and Reform Commission to the average wholesale price of second-class corn in major wholesale markets in China. According to the production cost data in recent years, the pig food price corresponding to the break-even point of pig production is about 7∶ 1. According to the early warning mechanism set by the National Development and Reform Commission, when the price of pig and grain is lower than 6∶ 1, a three-level warning will be issued. When the price of pig food is between 5∶ 1 and 6∶ 1 for three consecutive weeks, or the number of sows that can breed in a single month decreases by 5% year-on-year, or the number of sows that can breed in three consecutive months decreases by 5% year-on-year to 10%, a second-level warning will be issued; When the price of pig and grain is lower than 5∶ 1, or the number of sows that can breed in a single month decreases 10%, or the number of sows that can breed in three consecutive months decreases 10% or more, the first-level warning will be issued. The National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the Ministry of Commerce, and the State Administration of Markets issued the Work Plan for Improving the Regulation Mechanism of Government Pork Reserves to Ensure Stable Prices in the Pork Market (hereinafter referred to as the Work Plan) on June 2 this year: at the national level, temporary reserve storage will not be started when the three-level warning of oversold is issued; When the second-level warning is issued, it will be started as appropriate; When the first-level warning is issued, the temporary storage will be started. The conditions for local governments to start temporary storage and purchasing shall be implemented with reference to national practices. When the national level issues the first-level warning of excessive drop in live pig prices, the central and local governments will fully start purchasing and storage. According to the monitoring of the National Development and Reform Commission, the national average price of pig grain was 4.90: 1 from June 2 to June 25. According to the provisions of the work plan, it has entered the warning range of excessive first-class decline below 5: 1.