Strong energy attributes, palm oil to maintain a strong pattern?
On the whole, Jiang Ying of Guolian Futures Agricultural Products Division said in an interview with the reporter of Futures Daily that palm oil producing areas may have a story of production reduction in June 5438+February. Palm oil, as the lowest price variety among the three major oils, is also one of its rebound kinetic energy; On the other hand, soybean oil is undergoing a transition from tight supply to loose supply; In terms of vegetable oil, problems such as Sino-Canadian relations and slow progress in arriving in Hong Kong, which had previously affected the market, have basically been lifted, and the expectation of purchasing and storing has also been fully priced by the market. Therefore, its price lacks the motivation to continue to rise, and the market price has recently dropped from a high level.
"In terms of palm oil, judging from the impact of crude oil trends, the recent short-term correction of international energy prices has ended, and the situation of palm oil following the decline has also ended. On Monday night, due to rumors of increasing production in oil-producing countries, energy prices fell sharply, leading to a decline in vegetable oil. However, it was later reported that Saudi Arabia denied increasing production and crude oil completely recovered its decline, which made palm oil rebound again. " Bian Shuyang, an agricultural product analyst at South China Research Institute, said.
From a fundamental point of view, Nie Bo, an agricultural product analyst at Shen Yin International Futures Research Institute, told the Futures Daily reporter that according to the data of maritime commodity inspection, in the first 20 days of June 165438+ 10, the European Union and India imported Malaysian palm oil, which exceeded the same period of June 10, and the international soybean palm oil spread was at a high level, boosting demand; At the same time, Indonesia's palm oil production maintained a high growth rate in September. Although exports dropped from August, they were still higher than the same period of last year, and finally continued to go to inventory in September. At this stage, both Malaysia and Indonesia have entered the production reduction cycle, and the total inventory of the two countries is expected to peak at the end of 1 1.
"Domestic palm oil stocks continued to climb, increasing by 1 10000 tons to 880000 tons last week, the highest level in the same period in recent years. However, the monthly demand of domestic palm oil with 24 degrees in June of 438+00 was only 3 10000 tons. Judging from the arrival volume, it is estimated that 165438+ 10 will reach 300,000-400,000 tons in October and 65438+ 10,000 tons in February due to the upside-down shipping schedule. In general, domestic palm oil inventories will usher in an inflection point around the end of 1 1. " Nie Bo said.
Looking forward to the market outlook, Nie Bo believes that under the high price difference between beans and palm oil, the export demand of producing areas will continue to support the palm oil disk, and the price may be relatively firm, but the upward height of the disk depends on the fulfillment of palm oil production reduction cycle and the landing of biodiesel demand.
In Jiang Ying's view, a series of negative factors of palm oil in the early stage have been basically digested, and 65438+February may still be in the rebound stage of long-term downward trend. First, there is a greater probability that the supply balance in the later production areas will be tight. Under the background of traditional seasonal production reduction cycle, La Nina in Sanfeng in June 5438+February will still bring too much precipitation to Malaysia and Indonesia; Second, after Levy was levied in Indonesia, the export tax increased by 100 USD/ton, and the cost side supported the disk price; Third, the B40 road test in Indonesia has been completed, and Indonesia has greater confidence in implementing B40, so it is expected that the demand for biodiesel will increase; Fourth, it is expected that the domestic arrival volume will be greatly reduced in June 5438+February, and the inventory growth rate may slow down.
Bian Shuyang believes that from the perspective of energy prices, due to the weakening of international diesel cracking profit expectations, the current global diesel shortage situation has begun to improve marginally, and the energy support of palm oil prices may begin to weaken in the future.
Is soybean oil weak downward under the expectation of increasing production?
With regard to soybean oil, Jiang Ying told reporters that short-term catering consumption was still restrained due to the epidemic disturbance, which dragged down the demand for soybean oil. At the same time, the recent arrival of imported soybeans in Hong Kong has increased, but the crushing capacity of oil plants is lower than market expectations, the soybean oil inventory of oil plants has continued to decline, and the soybean oil basis has temporarily stopped falling. Under the interweaving of long and short factors, soybean oil maintains weak oscillation.
"Specifically, the domestic soybean crush in Zhou Du last week was 1.5286 million tons, which was lower than expected; Zhou Du's soybean oil table needs to be maintained at 3 1 10,000 tons, which is the lowest level in the same period of the past three years, significantly lower than the 350,000 tons, 5438+0 and 360,000 tons in the same period of 2026. " Nie Bo said.
From this week's point of view, Nie Bo further stated that the domestic soybean crushing volume is expected to rebound to 2.06 million tons, the supply of soybean oil in Zhoudu will increase substantially, and the inventory is expected to usher in an inflection point.
Looking forward to the last month of this year, Jiang Ying thinks that the expected arrival of soybeans in June 5438+February will be more than100000 tons, and the supply pressure will be greater. At the same time, with the improvement of the operating rate of oil plants, soybean oil stocks are expected to increase. In the long run, under the expectation of increasing soybean production in South America, the price of soybean oil will gradually decline.
It is certain that the supply of raw materials will increase, and vegetable oil will be the weakest oil variety?