While people all over the country are celebrating the Spring Festival, oil prices are also rising quietly, and there has been a wave of "prosperity". London Brent crude oil futures for April delivery closed at $64.34 per barrel, setting a new high since 13 months. Some professionals said that the international oil price rose rapidly, exceeding expectations.
According to China's current refined oil price mechanism, the third oil price increase this year is also expected. According to the latest news released by the National Development and Reform Commission, domestic oil prices began to increase from February 18, 20265438. After this oil price increase, on the national average, 92 # gasoline rose by 0.22 yuan per liter, and 0 # diesel rose by 0.23 yuan per liter. According to the calculation of 40L fuel tank, it costs 6 yuan more to fill a box of 92# gasoline after the price increase than before.
Although it seems that the rising price is not too high, it is the first time that domestic oil prices have risen for seven consecutive times since the implementation of the new pricing mechanism for refined oil products from 2065438 to March 26th, 2003. As the Spring Festival holiday in China draws to a close, many people have returned to work, and the cost of driving will continue to increase. So many people lined up at the gas station to refuel before the price increase. After all, the economy is a little bit.
The main factor of this oil price adjustment is the influence of international oil price changes. On the one hand, it includes the continuous production reduction of major oil-producing countries, such as the extreme cold wave weather in Texas, which leads to the continuous reduction of US crude oil production, affecting the US crude oil production as high as 4 million barrels per day, which leads to the deterioration of the US energy crisis, and the US crude oil production has been shrinking by about 40%, which has caused a great impact on the global market. On the other hand, vaccines in COVID-19 are being put into use, and economic stimulus plans in various countries are gradually boosting market demand. It makes the oil price show an oversupply situation at a certain stage and within a certain range. In addition, the fund bulls continued to increase their positions in the oil market, which also stimulated the upward trend of oil prices to some extent.
The next oil price adjustment window is at 24: 00 on March 3, 20021year. Analysts generally believe that oil prices may still rise in the short term. Oil prices have been rising since 202 1. Then many people will wonder: will oil prices continue to rise?
Many domestic analysts predict that Saudi Arabia will increase its oil production from April due to soaring oil prices. However, some economists are not optimistic about whether this will curb the upward trend of oil prices. It is generally believed that oil prices will continue to rise gradually in the next few generations.
Dai, chairman of China Petroleum, said in an interview with the media that the negative price of oil in 20021will not appear as in 2020. Due to the transformation of energy, people's demand for fossil fuels is gradually decreasing, so the international crude oil price may still operate in the middle and low oil price range.
Howie Lee, an economist at OCBC Bank in Singapore, believes that the cold wave may not be the only catalyst to push oil prices to such a high level. Although Saudi oil can support the market, the decline of American stocks is so rapid, suggesting that the supply of international crude oil market still cannot keep up with the demand in the short term.
Bian Chen, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, believes that due to the good progress of production reduction in major oil-producing countries and the sustained economic recovery, the oil price in the market outlook is still bullish, but the recent increase in oil prices is too large, the stamina may be insufficient, and the upward trend will also slow down. Some organizations even predict that by the end of 20021,the international oil price may reach 70 to 80 dollars per barrel.
Judging from the domestic demand for crude oil, with the gradual control of the domestic epidemic and the gradual recovery of the economy, people's willingness to travel and consume is stronger, and the willingness of refining and chemical enterprises to buy crude oil is generally increasing. In addition, a number of refining and chemical projects were put into operation after the first quarter of last year, which supported China's demand for crude oil. Considering various factors, it should not be a problem for domestic crude oil demand to exceed that of last year in the first quarter of this year.
It can be seen that the oil price will not only rise in this price adjustment, but will still be a high probability event when the next price adjustment window comes.