The feeling of a quitter, by the author (one of my fans)
I closed my coke position for the last time, just at the stop loss I set for the last time. This is a promise. I promised my family that as long as I reached this stop loss position, I would unconditionally withdraw from the futures market completely. Now that this position has arrived, I have no reason to continue fighting in this market. The remaining thing is to take out the remaining money in stages. At the peak, there were more than two million in my account. There are more than 300 thousand. To be exact, this money is no longer mine, because there are still more than 200,000 owed to the bank,100,000 owed to friends, and more than 200,000 owed to the family. My current assets are negative.
I took out a thick notebook to be destroyed, which recorded every transaction, all kinds of graphics and all kinds of analysis in my futures over the years. In fact, all this is meaningless.
Four years ago, I entered the futures market with 500 thousand. One of my college classmates has been doing futures for more than ten years. It is said that he has created many myths about getting rich that we have never heard of. When I asked him for advice, he said the right thing to do was not to do it.
I said I would do it slowly with 500,000 yuan and earn 20 million yuan in ten years. He said with a smile, you can earn 20 million yuan by doing many things with 500,000 yuan in ten years, but it is impossible to do futures. You can't even live for five years. Later I learned that he didn't create any myths at all. He works harder than any of my classmates. It's only four years now, and his words have come true.
In recent years, I have lost all my savings, lost all my sister's money to buy a house, lost all the money I borrowed from the bank with my house as collateral, and lost all the money I borrowed from my relatives and friends with sweet words. I dare not even calculate my loss. This is an astronomical figure. I have nothing now, and I have to pay the bank a mortgage of 7 thousand yuan every month. At the same time, it also lost the young years that are gone forever.
What did I get? I got nothing. I try my best to find the legendary Aladdin magic lamp from countless icons and K-line diagrams every day, just like a scientific madman making perpetual motion machine crazily. Not only me, but everyone in the futures market is like this. No entertainment, no friends, no family, a bunch of meaningless numbers and curves, looking for the holy grail that doesn't actually exist.
Every day, I am inspired by the myth that 50,000 people earn 20 million yuan and 500,000 yuan 1 billion. Now I understand that even if this is true, the probability of its existence will not exceed the lottery P, and the fee I pay to the futures company every day is enough for me to buy a bunch of lottery P. Now I understand that there is no way for the futures market to make money, because every method is a summary of the past laws, and what you need to find is the future. You need to know what will not happen in the future. This contradiction will never be solved and will never be discovered. If someone finds out that he can pocket all the wealth in the world in a limited time, the market will collapse and disappear.
Some people say that one person makes money and nine people lose money in this market. I thought it was right. I thought I was the ninth. Now I think it is almost impossible for anyone to make money in the futures market, and the probability of making money is less than the probability of winning the lottery.
Under normal circumstances, the money in the futures market is transferred between the winners and losers to pay the fees of futures companies, and the only certainty is the fees of futures companies, which is the only certainty of income in the whole futures market.
I know a friend who has been a futures trader for nearly 20 years. Now he can earn about 5 thousand from the market every month, with a capital of100 thousand. But he lost twenty years of youth and once lost millions. Assuming that he does anything with lost money and lost time, his income will be much more than it is now.
Many people want to get rich in futures, and the result is rapid poverty; Many people want to make money in the futures market in the short term, but they have been strangled in this market for a long time; Many people keep putting money earned, borrowed or even cheated from other places into this market, and many people are inspired by futures-they can keep getting wealth outside futures but they can never be winners in this market.
The reason is simple, because the design of this market can't make you make money. The two major functions of the futures market are hedging and price G discovery rather than speculation, but now everyone in this market is doing a function that futures do not actually exist-speculation. Therefore, in the end, everyone will find that there is no winner in the futures market, and there can be no winner, but you will understand this truth only if you lose it all. Before losing everything, you refused to accept it, but desperately searched for the nonexistent Aladdin magic lamp.
I left the future. I am very grateful to my family. They tolerated my stupidity and didn't abandon me when I lost my dignity. They waited for me to wake up with great patience and endured huge money losses. In particular, I lost all my sister's 600 thousand money to buy a house, and she didn't even ask me, pretending not to know.
I want to say to those who want to join this market, don't look for Aladdin's magic lamp, don't be a perpetual motion machine, it doesn't exist at all, and don't fantasize about the myth of getting rich. You are not smarter than others, nor are you special. Even if the pie does fall, the possibility of hitting you is almost negligible. Whether you are making money, losing money or painting, quitting this market is the most correct choice.
Now I don't care about coke and soybean oil. The rise and fall of rebar and silver has nothing to do with me. I won't stay up all night because I hold overnight orders, and I won't stare at those meaningless curves all day. I don't regret it because I did it in the wrong direction, and I'm not anxious to see others make money. I won't waste precious years looking for the legendary Aladdin magic lamp. Although my wound has not healed yet, I now feel that the future is full of sunshine, which I have never got in the futures market.
The above author is a fan of mine. He comments and forwards my article for a long time, and thanks him for his concern. He chose to quit the futures market. My mood is very complicated. I don't know whether I should be happy or sympathetic. I'm glad that he won't have to suffer and bake in the futures market in the future, so he can have a good sleep and have a good dream. Sadly, he ended the game in the form of huge losses and debts, which made me unforgettable for a long time.
Secondly, a failed case of "remembering the past, learning from the future" deserves our reflection on our trading methods and whether our trading will also make such problems or faults. If so, correct them, and if not, encourage them.
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Let's analyze the reasons for his failure:
Any trader needs a long time to "learn". Before he can achieve stable profit, he has to walk a long and bumpy road, which requires expensive market tuition.
But a principal of 50,000 yuan, a principal of 500,000 yuan, and a principal of 5 million yuan and 50 million yuan are almost the same in this market. Just because you have tens of millions, you can learn more than 50 thousand.
Because there is no scale of funds here, only the speed of funds, and it will not be gradually reduced because you have large funds.
So, in this case, why not "pay tuition" for the market with very little capital before achieving stable profit? Even if this little money is gone, it will not have obvious influence on you and your family, and you can also learn knowledge and experience. When the first small fund is used up, you can add another small fund, and your experience and knowledge will continue to grow. You won't fall down before dawn, and you won't "make money, but the money is gone." 1997 When I entered the futures market, I was glad that I was not rich at that time, so although I broke my position, I didn't lose much, which didn't affect me.
Suggestion: Anyone can divide your capital into N shares, each with tens of thousands, before reaching a stable profit. If you lose a sum, continue to make up for it, and don't fall down before dawn.
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Although I don't know his trading mode, he said that "the handling fee paid to the futures company every day is enough for me to buy a bunch of lottery tickets P", which shows that he trades every day, and the trading is too frequent, which is likely to be short-term in the day.
It can't be said that intraday trading can't be successful, but from the logical point of view, or from the trading experience of myself and my surroundings in the past 20 years, intraday trading is the most difficult mode to succeed, because the shorter the trading cycle, the stronger the randomness, the worse the effectiveness of the signal and the limited profit-loss ratio. Short-term intraday trading determines profit, which cannot be amplified, and false signals cannot guarantee success rate. What do you want?
Besides, it will also damage your health, which most easily leads to a person's mental degradation, no rest, and so on. In short, day trading is the most difficult mode to succeed.
Of course, there are also successful cases and systems for intraday trading. I made futures in my early years. Five years later, I realized some profit models of intraday trading, but I found bottlenecks more and more, so I turned to trend trading. Compared with this, the trend is easier and easier. The difficulty of intraday trading is not an order of magnitude of that of daily K-line.
Suggestion: If you don't have enough skills, try to give up the concept of short-term trading, especially intraday short-term trading. I believe that there are few miracles of short-term success in the world, and it is difficult for you to become God's special darling.
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Although I don't know his style, according to his "the last time I closed the coke, it was only my last time."
Set a stop loss, which is a promise. In the past year, coke has been falling all the way, and the decline is remarkable. There is no sign of increase at all. It can be seen that he must have entered more midway and operated against the trend. The quilt cover did not stop the loss in time, and the coke fell too fast and suffered heavy losses.
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People who have just come to this market have the illusion of getting rich. This is normal. "I said that I will do it slowly with 500,000 yuan and earn 20 million yuan in ten years." Once you have violent fantasies, your operation will be very radical. You must either go to Man Cang or have a heavy position. When you are lucky, your account grows really fast. When the luck is bad, the account will decline rapidly, and it is difficult to make a comeback.
It must be understood that people's luck always has a cycle. People's luck is good and bad. Luck cannot always be good. God can't just trust you.
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"I bought a house for my sister and lost 600,000 yuan. I took the house as a mortgage and lost the money I took out of the bank. I also lost the money I borrowed from my friends and relatives." It can be seen how much money he borrowed.
Futures itself has leverage. If you borrow money to speculate in futures, the leverage will be particularly large, and the weakness of human nature will be displayed in front of you.
When you borrow money to speculate in futures, you will be under great pressure. You consider not only the market itself, but also the possibility of relatives and friends. When you lose money, your pressure will suddenly rise because you can't repay on time, so you will operate blindly because you can't wait for the opportunity, because at this time, you can't calm down, the debt pressure takes over your heart, and the analysis and operation of the market can't be objective, so it is easy to lose money.
Suggestion: Never borrow money to speculate in futures. You will continue to work after the loss. On the one hand, it will keep you away from the futures market and calm you down. "the authorities are fascinated, and the bystanders are clear"; On the other hand, with the money from work, slowly learn to make a stable profit.
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He said, "Trying to find the legendary Aladdin magic lamp is like a scientific madman frantically making a perpetual motion machine." "Every method is a summary of the laws of the past, but what you need to discover is the future, and you need to know what has not happened in the future."
It can be seen that the trading process he studied has been looking for the "holy grail", that is, "one trick is fresh" and "one trick can be eaten all over the world". His understanding of trading has always been wrong, which led to his learning and summary being a mistake and falling into a mistake. There is no "holy grail" in trading, and it will never be. Not in the past, and it will be useless in the future. Because there is such a "one trick", many people will use it and will inevitably fail. No one is stupid, and they are constantly looking for such a "one trick". If you can find it, why can't others find it?
The essence of trading is to make big losses and small losses, which is a measure of risks and benefits. If the income far exceeds the risk, do it or give up, and the winning rate may not be high.
In addition, his confusion is that "every method is a summary of past laws, but what you need to discover is the future, and you need to know what has not happened in the future". There is some truth in his words, but "there is nothing new under the sun", and the laws of the past will continue to be interpreted in the future, but they will not be exactly the same. It is still effective to judge the future with this law, and there is also stop loss protection. If the law fails in the future, there will be stop loss protection, which will not make you lose a lot.
Suggestion: The essence of trend trading is to make big profits and make small losses. There is no holy grail here, only the measurement of risks and benefits.
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The transaction seems simple, but it is actually a big maze. To get out of this maze, you need to touch a lot of noses and roads, and you must have high logical reasoning ability and great wisdom. Few people can finally get out of this maze. According to the summary of the surrounding and others, only 1% of the market can survive, which means that only 1% of the people can get out of this maze.
You grope for yourself in the transaction, just like a blind man touching an elephant and touching his nose. You said, "An elephant is like a curved pipe." Touching the tail, you say, "An elephant is like a thin stick." Touch your body and you say, "An elephant is like a wall." Touching your leg, you say, "An elephant is like a thick pillar." Isn't the deal the same?
Although you may not be able to make a stable profit immediately after learning from the old-timers, you can greatly shorten the path and time of your own exploration. The key is to greatly reduce your loss of money, so that you can have a global and systematic understanding of the logic, system, strategy and tactics of trading, and you will find out whether there is any problem with one of your trading operations.
Author | Egg yolk investment, more than 20 years of trading experience, private letter to obtain packaging information.