Most of the citizens who ventured to move their assets out of the bank and put them in fund companies this year have gained quite good returns. For them, now is the harvest season. At the same time, when bidding farewell to the old and welcoming the new, the citizens may wish to take stock of their fund portfolios, make comparisons, sum up the gains and losses of investment in the past year, and seek ways and means to improve in the coming year. Only in this way can our investment mature day by day. Here, we have selected some brokers' predictions and suggestions for fund investment next year, hoping to give you inspiration when you take stock and reflect.
Be cautiously optimistic next year.
In 2007, the stock funds with the best investment returns exceeded 200%, but this year, institutions are relatively cautious about the trend of next year.
It is believed that it will be difficult to continue the output in 2007 in 2008.
Wang Danni, an analyst of China Merchants Securities Fund, believes that the return on investment of partial stock funds is expected to reach at least 10% in 2007, and the highest return on investment during this period is expected to exceed 20%.
As for the timing of the stock market in 2008, analysts have different predictions. Wang Danni believes that if the stock market prospers rationally in 2008, performance fluctuation may appear in the first quarter. Yao Xiaojun, an analyst at Guodu Securities, believes that equity funds will get positive excess returns in 2008, and the excess returns will be more concentrated in the second half of 2008.
Inclined partial stock fund
Analysts believe that because the bull market will continue in 2008, the income of partial stock funds will still be ahead of other types of funds, so it is still possible to maintain a high investment ratio of partial stock funds next year.
As for the choice of fund companies, Zhu Jun, a fund analyst in Shen Yin Wanguo, believes that in a bull market, we should look for fund companies with moderate investment overlap, while in a bear market, we should look for fund companies with high investment overlap, and this investment style should be maintained by fund companies, rather than changing with the market. He believes that the fund companies that will focus on in 2008 are: the stability of investment style is above average, and the similarity is in the middle or slightly higher range. The fund companies he mainly recommended are Bosera, Huaxia, Jiashi and Nanfang; In addition, he is also optimistic about Guangfa, Huitianfu, Xingye and Yifangda. These companies are highly similar, but concentrated investment is risky.
Yao Xiaojun, an analyst at Guodu Securities, believes that the allocation ratio of allocated funds should not be large, because from the actual operation situation, the flexible allocation funds as a whole failed to show obvious timing operation ability.
Index funds can be properly allocated.
Analysts generally believe that the volatility of the market index in 2008 will be higher than that in 2007, so Wang Danni believes that investment index funds should prepare for a longer investment period. Zhu Jun believes that the increase in the size of a single fund and the introduction of stock index futures will make funds pay more attention to large-cap blue-chip stocks, and index funds are the group with the highest proportion of large-cap stocks. The index funds he recommended are Harvest Shen Hu 300, Shanghai Stock Exchange 180ETF and E Fund Shenzhen Stock Exchange 100ETF. Yao Xiaojun also believes that index funds, as the simplest choice to share the stock market rise, can be properly allocated in 2008, and when the related indexes are expected to rise significantly, index funds can be added to replace stock funds.
According to statistics, in 2007, only E Fund Shenzhen Stock Exchange 100ETF's yield exceeded the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, and the yields of other index funds all lagged behind the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index to varying degrees.
Yao Xiaojun believes that the reasons for the income difference are as follows: First, the tracking index is different. In the 15 index fund that has been in operation for one year, 13 only tracks indexes outside the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. Among the major market indexes in 2007, only the Shenzhen Stock Exchange 100 index has a higher yield than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index; The second is tracking error. The yield of Rongtong Shenzhen Stock Exchange 100 index fund tracking Shenzhen Stock Exchange 100 index lags behind the target index by 27.96%, and the returns of two index funds tracking Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index also lag behind the target index by 24.45% and 28.48% respectively. These errors mainly come from factors such as long-term suspension of trading of individual heavyweights due to share reform, large-scale subscription and redemption of funds and dividends. Yao Xiaojun believes that in 2008, due to the suspension of share reform, the impact on fund tracking index will basically disappear, so the tracking effect of index fund on index is expected to improve.
Partial stock funds are still the first choice for investment in 2008.
In 2008, the A-share market is expected to absorb the valuation pressure, and the volatility of the stock index is expected to rise. However, under the expectation of the continuation of the stock market boom, the long-term investment management ability of partial stock funds is worthy of recognition, and its profit-making effect is expected to continue. Therefore, it is suggested that partial stock funds continue to be the key varieties of investment choice in 2008.
Steady operation to control portfolio risk
In the short term, the market valuation pressure still needs to be digested, or the trend of shock consolidation will continue. Therefore, at this stage, suggestions on maintaining appropriate portfolio risk control and steady operation in fund selection can pay due attention to funds with relatively clear long-term trends in investment finance, consumption and service, such as Guo Futianyi Value, Jing Shun Great Wall Dingyi, Huabao Xingye Baokang Consumer Goods and Huaxia Bonus. In addition, at present, the market style is changing from large market value style to small market value style, and you can also choose funds that focus on small and medium-sized stocks with outstanding growth, such as Guangfa Small Cap and Harvest Growth.
Low-risk investors pay attention to bond funds.
Low-risk investors can pay attention to bond funds under the mode of "fixed income+new stock investment". Under the pressure of austerity and inflation, the bond market still needs to be cautious in 2008, and the subscription of new shares is still an important means to improve the income of bond funds under controllable risks. The online winning rate and the first-day increase of 1 19 new shares issued in 2007 (from February to 14) were statistically analyzed. The results show that the weighted average increase (calculated by closing price) on the first day of listing is 128.3 1%.
Judging from the expected rate of return of fixed-income assets (excluding convertible bonds) and new share subscription (cash+government bond repurchase), the expected annual rate of return of bond funds can reach 6%-10 under the stable operation mode of "fixed income+new share investment". It is suggested that bond funds can be used as an upgraded substitute for fixed-term savings, which is suitable for investors with low risk appetite and hope to realize asset preservation. From this point of view, it is suggested to focus on bond fund products such as Huaxia Bond Fund, Harvest Bond Fund, Huabao Xingye Baokang Bond Fund and ICBC Credit Suisse Enhanced Income Bond Fund.
The back cover can be held for a long time.
Annual dividend is still the focus of short-term attention of closed-end funds with long remaining term. As of June 5438+February 2, 2007, the average discount level of closed-end funds (20 10, * * *) with longer remaining maturity has dropped to 20%, and the expected arbitrage income of annual dividends has been reflected to a great extent. But on the one hand, the annual dividend has not been implemented, and the arbitrage market of annual dividend will continue to be interpreted; On the other hand, the discount level of some funds is still around 25%, which has a certain margin of safety. Therefore, it can be considered that annual dividend is still the focus of short-term attention of closed-end funds with longer remaining period. Considering that the discount level of some funds has been greatly reduced, it is suggested to choose closed-end funds with relatively high discount and high dividend expectation as key investments, and it is suggested to focus on funds such as Hanxing, Hongyang, Tongsheng, Jin Xin and Anshun.
At present, there were three closed-end funds (Hui Ke, Kexiang and Handing) at the end of 2008, and only two closed-end funds (Jinsheng and Tianhua) were due to open in 2009. According to the current discount level, the weighted average static rate of return of the three funds due at the end of 2008 after term conversion is 10. 1 1%, and the weighted average static rate of return of the two funds due in 2009 after discount at the end of 2008 is reduced to 10%, which is still attractive. Moreover, the dual advantages (small scale and stability) of small-cap funds in short-term closed-end funds will gradually emerge. Based on the above two advantages, the author believes that short-term closed-end funds can be held as stable varieties for a long time. Among them, it is suggested to focus on Hui Ke, Kexiang and Jinsheng by comprehensively comparing the static rate of return and the medium and long-term investment management ability. (Guo Jin Securities Zhang Jianhui)
Fund positions are still at a low level.
On the whole, the market is still showing a trend of differentiation and rising this week. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index and the Small and Medium-sized Board Index, which are relatively dense in small and medium-sized sectors, are far ahead of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 180 Index. However, due to the influence of the fund's annual ranking, the fund's pull-up of heavyweights this week has further narrowed the differentiation between the blue-chip sector and other sectors.
Under this big pattern, the performance of funds is often unsatisfactory. This week, the increase of fund net value in the direction of active investment obviously lags behind the overall market level. In addition, among the 23 industries in the market this week, except for the four industries of finance, catering, transportation and light industry manufacturing, other industries all increased by more than 4.5%, but the stock funds with the highest increase in active investment direction only increased by 4.33%. This obvious contrast can no longer be explained by the simple structural adjustment of fund positions. The most likely situation is that the fund did not take the initiative to increase its position on the way to the market rebound in June 5438+February, which will lead to the low net value of the fund. And from the performance of the fund's net value last week, it can be found that its large-scale entry into the market is not obvious. In the face of the continued activity of small and medium-sized sectors, the fund still shows a more cautious attitude. It can also be inferred that in the process of market rebound since 65438+February, there are still new funds behind the rise in volume and price. As the institutional investor with the most new capital supply ability in the market, the restraint attitude of the fund to the position is worthy of attention. In the process of developing small and medium-sized board step by step in the market, if there is no support of long-term investment funds, once the market changes significantly, small-sized varieties will still suffer the most.
From our tracking, small and medium-sized funds continue to perform well, and the better performance of some blue-chip funds is also conducive to the rise of individual blue-chip funds. Among them, Morgan Stanley, Baoying, China Post Venture, Huaan and other fund management companies performed well. At the same time, we also found that the funds with the highest gains this week are the funds with the highest cumulative gains in 2007, which also shows that it is still a prominent phenomenon for the fund to lift the ban on its heavy stocks at the end of the year.
In terms of investment, based on the current situation that the small and medium-sized plate in the market has increased greatly and the fund is still cautious, we advise investors to pay close attention to the signals that may lead to major changes in the market while sharing the benefits brought by the market recovery process. Based on clear performance expectations and certain conceptual themes, it is still an important criterion to guide us to choose investment products in the future. (Wei, Galaxy Securities Fund Research Center)
Closed-end funds continue to perform strongly.
This week, both the Shanghai Stock Exchange Fund Index and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Fund Index continued their gains last week. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Fund Index rose 3.09% over the weekend to close at 5070 points. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 3. 1 1% over the weekend to close at 4,977 points. The turnover in the two cities was1136.5 billion yuan, which was nearly 50% higher than the turnover of 7.622 billion yuan last week. The average turnover rate is 0.99%, which is also significantly higher than last week's 0.63%. The top three funds in this week's turnover are: fund Hanxing 980 million yuan, fund Yinfeng 880 million yuan and fund Jin Xin 780 million yuan; The top three funds with turnover rates are: Fund Yinfeng, Fund Hanxing and Fund Hongyang, with average daily turnover rates above 2%.
In terms of secondary market returns, in addition to the opening price limit approved by Xinfeng this week, the top gainers are: Anshun Fund rose by 6.3%, Yinfeng Fund rose by 5.6%, Jijinkehui rose by 4.99%, SDIC UBS Ruifu rose by 4.95% and Jijinjinxiang rose by 4.33%. Ruifu enterprising has been eye-catching this week. The fund has achieved a large net growth in the process of market rise in the past two weeks. We see that although its price has increased by 4.95% this week, the premium rate has dropped to around 1%.
In the past two weeks, the overall discount rate of closed-end funds has been greatly reduced. The average discount rate of closed-end funds dropped from 19.5% in early February to 16.9% last week. The main reason for the decrease in discount rate is that the price increase of closed-end funds is higher than the net growth rate. Last week, for example, the average net growth rate of 34 closed-end funds was about 2%, while the average price rose by 5.6%.