Since mid-February, BDI (Baltic Dry Index) has rebounded at a low level, with an increase of more than 150%. Historically, the trend of BDI and A shares sometimes shows a positive correlation. When BDI rises four times, it may indicate the arrival of the inflection point in the A-share market. Analysts believe that China's economic recovery is the main reason for this round of BDI rebound, and the short-term rally is expected to continue and benefit the two major industries of oil transportation and dry bulk cargo, but the impact of BDI rebound on the trend of A shares remains to be seen. In less than a month, BDI's share price rose by more than 65,438 points, or more than 0.50%. Driven by China, Indian and other countries, the global manufacturing PMI returned to the threshold in February this year after half a year. At the same time, with China's appropriate relaxation of Australian coal imports, South American cereals entered the peak season, and BDI stopped falling and rebounded. From 530 at the bottom of February 16, BDI started a continuous rising mode, and as of March 9, the increase has exceeded 150%. "China's economy rebounded significantly in February. In February, the official manufacturing PMI rose to 52.6%, a sharp increase of 2.5 percentage points from the previous month. " Cheng, deputy general manager of Guangzhou Financial Futures Research Center, told reporters that since 2022, the trend has been consistent with the commodity index and the economic trend of China. The rebound of dry bulk market is also one of the driving factors for the current BDI price increase. Prices of iron ore, coal, grain and bauxite rebounded in February. "In the context of China's economic recovery, the import demand of dry bulk cargo is picking up. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of soybeans, iron ore, coal and pulp increased 16. 1%, 7.3%, 70.8% and 4.7% respectively over the same period of last year. " Cheng said to him. Marco, a senior researcher of Founder's mid-term futures shipping and global macroeconomics, told the reporter: "Last week, the shipments of iron ore, coal and grain in Zhoudu reached 29 1.2 million tons, 25.42 million tons and 1.04 million tons respectively, which were 25%, 1.04% and 29% higher than those before Zhou Adu. Judging from the performance of international sea freight, there are obvious signs of stabilization. As of March 10, the average chartering prices of Panamanian, Cape of Good Hope and super handy ships rebounded by 95. 1%, 479. 1% and 80.4% respectively compared with February 16. " However, it should be pointed out that this wave of BDI rebound is a moderate rebound at a very low level. Although the increase was great, the point of 1379 on March 9 was still at a relatively low level. "Marco said. It is expected to trigger "double-click oil transportation" as an indicator of the relationship between oil transportation and dry transportation industry. What influence does BDI· Big bounce have on these two industries? Cheng said that the increase in tanker freight prices usually leads to a significant improvement in the operating income of international shipping-related enterprises. In February, the average TCE of VLCC ships was $25,507/day, up 69% from 65,438+10. China Merchants Steamship and COSCO Marine Control rose sharply in early March. For the dry bulk cargo industry, we think it mainly involves dry bulk cargo transportation, shipping agency, freight forwarding, integrated logistics and special bulk cargo transportation, ship leasing, crew service, property management and so on. In fact, when the market expects the seasonal growth of dry bulk imports, there will be a wave of market conditions in these industries from March to May every year. Cheng said that international oil transportation is very different from international bulk transportation, and the market cycles of the two markets are also different. In the last two years, for example, in 20021year, the price of international bulk transportation rose, while many oil transportation enterprises were still at a loss. In 2022, the price of oil transportation rose sharply, but the price of bulk transportation began to fall continuously in the second half of the year. Therefore, the rebound of BDI will improve the profits of bulk cargo owners, but has no direct impact on the profits of oil owners. "Marco believes that A shares belong to the concept stocks of dry bulk cargo owners, and they are still in shock in the near future, mainly because BDI only rebounded at a very low level, but it is still below the break-even line of 1500. Will the mysterious law be realized again? BDI is called the "barometer" of the global economy. Historically, the trend of BDI and A shares sometimes shows a positive correlation. When BDI rises four times, it may indicate the arrival of the inflection point in the A-share market. Judging from the trend of BDI, "it is expected that this round of BDI is expected to stand at 2000 points. The future trend of BDI still depends on the recovery of global economy. Overall, BDI is more likely to fluctuate upwards this year. " Chen Wei said. Can BDI become the leading indicator of A shares again? Cheng believes that it is only positively correlated with the trend of A shares in some time periods, and it is not very stable. The positive correlation is mainly because BDI index is often closely related to the prosperity of bulk dry bulk cargo transportation, and China is the largest bulk dry bulk cargo consumer in the world. China's economic growth means the improvement or growth of related industries' income and profits, so A-shares tend to rise.