People who study quantitative analysis have always ridiculed that fundamental analysis and technical analysis are too subjective. The professor who teaches quantitative analysis at the University of Auckland openly declares that fundamental analysis and technical analysis are rubbish in class, while some elites in the financial market declare: "Financial investment is an art, not a science." Peter Lynch believes that all the math knowledge you need in the financial market is what you learned in the fourth grade of primary school.
Of course, the two schools of fundamental analysis and technical analysis are not monolithic, and often accuse each other of putting the cart before the horse. In fact, everything that exists in this world has its value and truth. These three schools have been fighting for nearly a hundred years, and they also have their own values that cannot be ignored. In this paper, the author will comment on these three schools.
First, quantitative analysis.
Quantitative analysis is to analyze and predict the future price of a financial commodity through various mathematical models. More precisely, the purpose of quantitative analysis is to analyze how much risk is taken and how much return is reasonable, and to make the risk and return proportional through mathematical model. It can be seen that the goal pursued by quantitative analysis is to preserve capital and value, not to obtain much income.
Therefore, quantitative analysis is widely used by many multinational groups and international funds. It should be noted here that these multinational groups and international funds use quantitative analysis not to pursue income, but to preserve value. For example, if an international trading company in New Zealand sells products to an American company, the New Zealand company will have $654.38+million in its account in three months.
According to the current exchange rate, US$ 654.38+10,000 can be exchanged for NZD150,000, but within these three months, NZD may appreciate, so that US$ 654.38+10,000 cannot be exchanged for NZD of the same amount after three months. In order to avoid this risk, New Zealand companies will reduce the exchange rate by buying and selling options, futures and other financial commodities, so that no matter how the exchange rate fluctuates in the next three months, it can be converted into NZD 6.5438+0.5 million.
As for whether the New Zealand dollar will depreciate or not, whether it can be exchanged for more New Zealand dollars after three months is simply out of consideration.
Second, fundamental analysis.
Any price fluctuation has its internal reasons. Fundamental analysis is to estimate the current value of a financial commodity, judge whether the current price of this commodity is reasonable, and predict the future price trend by grasping the internal reasons. It can be said that fundamental analysis is a macro analysis method from the inside out. This analysis method is the "imperial" analysis method of governments all over the world, and governments all over the world carry out economic macro-control through fundamental analysis. However, this analysis method is not suitable for retail investors.
On the one hand, because of the heavy workload of collecting and analyzing various data, on the other hand, retail investors can't guarantee the correctness and authenticity of the information they collect. Not only that, the fundamental analysis is a macro analysis, and the result of the analysis is what will happen in N years.
For example, through fundamental analysis, you can see that NZD has oversold, which should be short in theory, but don't forget that fundamental analysis doesn't tell you how far NZD will oversold and when it will fall. What's more, it can be sold at a high price, and the exchange rate can rise again when it rises, and it will remain for quite some time.
Do you have enough funds to resist exchange rate fluctuations, and do conditions allow you to wait for such a long time?
Third, technical analysis.
The author himself is studying technical analysis. In my opinion, technical analysis is simply tailored for the industry of speculation. In the final analysis, technical analysis is to help you judge (please note, judge rather than predict) what trend the market is currently in, and then let you operate according to the trend.
Therefore, the author can summarize the technical analysis in eight words: "go up, buy, sell, and take advantage of the trend". From a certain point of view, there is only one purpose of technical analysis, which is to help retail investors make money in unfair games.
Technical analysis, for example, is like the way an assassin kills people. There is no trick. Everything he does has only one purpose-killing people.