The change of supply and demand is the most important factor affecting the price change of pvc futures market.
The supplier stops work for maintenance, new equipment starts, and the import volume changes; Policy production reduction and factory accidents in petrochemical industry
Demand side: downstream product production and low demand peak season. Spring and autumn every year: construction peak season.
Export changes: raw materials and products. The low threshold of downstream industries leads to a large surplus of processing capacity, desalination of peak season, early extension of production cycle, and meager profits of downstream processing industries; Vicious competition leads to the decline of product quality, and the prevalence of counterfeit and shoddy products affects the enthusiasm for use.
International crude oil fluctuation
Cost conduction: crude oil is one of the main raw materials of PVC, crude oil-naphtha-ethylene-vinyl chloride -PVC.
When the oil price is relatively stable or fluctuates slightly, it has little impact on the PVC market, and the impact on the cost of PVC is mainly reflected in ethylene (vinyl chloride).
The change of cost advantage: the comparative advantage of oil price and calcium carbide price
Cost balance point: oil price 50 USD/barrel VS calcium carbide 3000 RMB/ton.
Oil prices affect the mentality of market participants.
3. Macroeconomic situation (building materials and real estate, automobile market) If the macroeconomic situation is good, the demand and consumption of PVC will be good, and the market price will be ideal. Otherwise, it will be worse.
National policy changes
Export tax rebate, processing trade restrictions, affecting exports
Import tariff reduction: 6.5%
Restricted use: water supply pipeline, food packaging.
Dumping and anti-dumping: PVC: September 2003, Taiwan Province Province, Japan, South Korea and the United States, etc. Turkey in 2006, India in 2007, South Africa and Brazil in 2008.
Products: pipes, profiles, packaging films, packaging bags, toys, lighting and other plastic products.
Financial policy: changes in interest rates and exchange rates
Starting water injection of pump
The rise of trade protectionism
Changes in raw material prices
The price change of raw materials (calcium carbide, VCM/EDC) will directly affect the cost of pvc spot manufacturers, and it is also a major factor affecting the price of pvc futures market.
Export situation
In April, affected by the import shock and export pressure of low-priced products, the export situation of China's petroleum and chemical industries was still very grim. According to the latest statistics, export delivery value, a petroleum and chemical industry, dropped by 23.2% year-on-year in April, and there is an expanding trend.
Among them, in April 2009, the import volume of PVC (including pure powder, plasticized and unplasticized) in China was 217,200 tons, with a significant year-on-year increase of 1 16. 12% and a decrease of 6.89% from the previous month. Among them, the import volume of pure PVC powder was 197600 tons, up 155.63% year-on-year.
Contrary to imports, China's PVC exports (including pure powder, plasticized and unplasticized) in April were 0.96 million tons, while China's PVC production in April was 706,000 tons, and its apparent consumption was about 893,700 tons, while imports accounted for 24.3% of the apparent consumption in that month. The impact of imported PVC on the domestic market is self-evident. The insiders believe that it is unlikely that the domestic market demand will expand significantly in the short term, thus further increasing the pressure on chemical foreign trade.