Fundamentally, this week we need to focus on the minutes of the July monetary policy meeting announced by the Federal Reserve on the 22nd. Federal Reserve Chairman Paul may disappoint the market that expects long-term policy easing, and interest rates may bear the brunt. However, the dollar can't get rid of the influence of the expected adjustment of policy, even if it turns out that these are short-lived. At the FOMC meeting in July, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time since 2008. Bauer, chairman of the Federal Reserve, said that this is only an adjustment in the cycle and does not mean that a series of subsequent interest rate cuts will come.
Judging from the above news, the global interest rate cut is an inevitable trend, and it is still happening. In addition, the double decline in US debt proves that the current global economic recession has arrived ahead of schedule. Secondly, the most important thing is that if Europe really restarts quantitative easing, gold has a high probability of being pushed to 1600, which means that the price of gold 1600 USD in September may become a high probability event.
From a technical point of view, gold futures prices continue to fluctuate and hit a new high. It is expected that the price of gold will continue to fluctuate at a high level, but the fluctuation will remain wide and irregular, so it is necessary to control the position and stop the loss. At present, gold focuses on the interval breakthrough between 1535 and 1480. If the upward target is 1568, the downward target can only be supported by shorting to 1456 USD. In the time period, focus on the turning point on the 22nd, and then look at the 27th. It is expected that there will be a high probability of a small low point on the 22nd, and the overall trend is still bullish.
If gold weakens at the beginning of the week and continues to watch Tuesday's short-term bottoming today, then in today's layout, we should first look at the retracement by shorting, and pay attention to the suppression in the upper 1500- 1505 area. It is a high probability event to break the intraday low, so we suggest shorting directly at 1499 in the morning and paying attention to/kloc-0.
Because the weak form came out yesterday, the weak closed near the low level in the early morning, so we can aggressively short below 1500 today. Looking at the overall thinking in the day, 1486 bottomed out. If the weak support around 1486 does not rebound, many orders will still be far-fetched and passive, so many orders must be temporary and the current price layout.