Synthetic rubber, also known as synthetic elastomer, is a synthetic polymer with high elasticity. It is one of the three synthetic materials, which can be divided into general rubber and special rubber. Universal rubber refers to rubber that can partially or completely replace natural rubber, and the demand is large; Special rubber is mainly used in specific occasions. The main types of rubber circulating in the market are cis-butadiene rubber (cis-butadiene rubber) and styrene-butadiene rubber. The cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber, which is more widely represented in the market, was selected as the target of synthetic rubber futures contract, and its apparent consumption and deliverable resources have the basic conditions for being the target of futures.

Second, the synthetic rubber industry chain

Synthetic rubber industry chain covers a wide range, covering petroleum refining, synthetic rubber production, rubber products and application industries from top to bottom. Upstream raw materials mainly come from basic raw materials made from petroleum and natural gas refining and their derived basic organic raw materials, including naphtha, butadiene, styrene, acrylonitrile, chloroprene, isobutylene and isoprene. The middle reaches include general and special synthetic rubber production plants, traders, chemical storage industries and related transportation industries. Downstream includes tire manufacturing, passenger car and heavy truck manufacturing, rubber products such as shoes, rubber hoses and tapes, and modified materials industries.

Figure 1: Synthetic Rubber Industry Chain

Source: Open source, yongan futures Institute.

The mainstream brand of cis-polybutadiene rubber in China is BR9000, which is mainly made of butadiene. The production technology of butadiene is mainly divided into oil-based and coal-based. In the coal-based process, C4 is extracted by MTO and MTBE devices, then butadiene is oxidatively dehydrogenated, and then cis-polybutadiene rubber is polymerized by catalyst. Its performance is stable and not easy to deteriorate.

Figure 2: Process flow of cis-polybutadiene rubber production

Source: Open source, yongan futures Institute.

Three. Basic situation of butadiene rubber

Global production capacity is concentrated, and the focus of cis-polybutadiene rubber industry is gradually shifting to Asia. At present, China is the largest producer of cis-polybutadiene rubber in the world, accounting for more than 30% of its output. Domestic industrial concentration is high, and the production capacity of cis-polybutadiene rubber in two barrels of oil accounts for more than half.

Figure 3: Production capacity of polybutadiene rubber

Data source: public information, data of Steel Association, yongan futures Research Institute.

In recent years, the supply and demand of cis-polybutadiene rubber in China has shown a slow growth trend, and the output tends to increase. The increase of output may mainly come from the restart of some idle capacity, and it is also inseparable from the change of industry profit value. Especially after the profit of cis-polybutadiene rubber industry improved in 2020, the factory started with high enthusiasm and the output increased obviously.

The downstream consumption of cis-polybutadiene rubber is concentrated in the field of tires and other rubber products, accounting for more than 90% of the total consumption. The development of tire industry and the iteration of technical renewal have become the main factors to promote the consumption change of cis-polybutadiene rubber in recent five years.

Figure 4: Supply and demand of polybutadiene rubber in China.

Data source: public information, data of Steel Association, yongan futures Research Institute.

From the import and export situation, the quality of domestic cis-polybutadiene rubber has been gradually improved, and the export has increased year by year, from less than 30,000 tons in 20 15 to140,000 tons in 2022; There is a downward trend in import volume, but there is still domestic demand for import volume. The international trade of cis-polybutadiene rubber mainly flows to China, Southeast Asia, Europe and South America from major producers such as Russia, the United States, Japan and South Korea. Twenty-two years ago, most Japanese and Korean cis-polybutadiene rubber basically covered the import demand of China and Southeast Asia, while Russian and American cis-polybutadiene rubber mainly flowed to South America and European countries. At present, Russian imports are growing exponentially, surpassing South Korea.

Figure 5: Import and export volume of cis-polybutadiene rubber in China

Data source: public information, data of Steel Association, yongan futures Research Institute.

The cis-polybutadiene rubber industry in China is in a transitional stage from the growth stage to the maturity stage, with high industry concentration, gradual improvement of upstream and downstream industrial chains, and more obvious trend of industry integration. The domestic supply and demand of cis-polybutadiene rubber may maintain a slow growth trend, and the sustained low-speed growth and export of production capacity may be an important direction for enterprises to seek future development.

Four, butadiene rubber futures option contract

Table 1: butadiene rubber futures contract

Table 2: butadiene rubber futures option contract