Is the uplink channel of the new pig cycle about to open? A number of pig enterprise undertakers told the Huashang Daily that this price increase exceeded the industry's expectations and also gave the breeding side the belief to persist.
However, some insiders also said that from the perspective of production capacity, the stock base of fertile sows is still there, and the current pig production capacity is still at a high point in time.
There seems to be signs of awakening.
Recently, the pig market seems to have produced various signs of awakening.
In terms of spot, the monitoring data of China pig network shows that the price of live pigs (foreign ternary) reached 13.02 yuan/kg on April 18, the highest point since February 10; In terms of futures, in April 18 and April 19, the contracts of live pig futures rose across the board, and the main contract hit the highest point since March 10; In terms of stock market, on April 18, the stocks of most listed pig enterprises in the hog sector also stopped falling and rose.
This increase has exceeded the expectations of the industry.
The relevant undertaker of a domestic listed pig enterprise told Huashang Daily reporter: According to the survey, enterprises are facing great financial pressure at present, and the actual pig slaughter of group enterprises in various regions has decreased, and the recent supply reduction has driven this round of price increase.
Moreover, the price increase in the southern region is obvious, which has driven the national price increase.
Li Ming, a live pig analyst in the Agricultural Products Division of Shanghai Steel Union, believes that from the supply side, the COVID-19 epidemic will have a certain impact on transportation, and it will be difficult to slaughter live pigs at the breeding end, which will reduce the supply of live pigs.
In addition, the increase in gasoline prices has also affected the transportation of pork to a certain extent, making the price of pork consumption areas rise.
From the demand side, there are cases of accelerating consumption on holidays such as May Day and Dragon Boat Festival.
In the case of loss, the breeding end did not continuously purchase piglets, and the current piglet gap gradually appeared, which also boosted the price of live pigs.
The current rise in the price of live pigs has also made the farmers who have suffered greatly breathe a sigh of relief.
The undertaking direction of Jilin he cheng Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Development Co., Ltd. also admitted to the reporter that the rise in the price of live pigs can rise to the periphery of the breeding cost line.
The relevant undertakers of listed pig enterprises also said that the price increase has little effect on reducing the losses at the breeding end, but it still depends on the duration of the price increase of live pigs. If the duration is short, there will still be no big improvement at the breeding end.
It is too early to open the uplink channel.
There are signs of awakening in the pig market, and there are many speculations in the industry that the second quarter of this year is the starting point of a new round of pig cycle.
Has the upward channel of the new pig cycle come?
The recent rebound in pig prices is still difficult to clarify the opening of a new round of upward channels.
Kong, a researcher in the pig industry of Everbright Futures Research Institute, told reporters that from the basic situation, the supply pressure in the pig market has not been effectively alleviated.
In the same period, the recent rebound in pig prices has caused varying degrees of pressure on the breeding end, or further increased the pressure on future market supply.
The suppression of live pig prices by the supply side will still limit the upward trend of live pig prices, and this rise in live pig prices does not have the trend upward momentum.
At the briefing on the operation of agriculture and rural economy in the first quarter held on April 20th, Yang Zhenhai, director of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said that the price of live pigs declined in the first quarter.
In February and March, raising pigs fell into a loss.
Recently, under the joint influence of the increase of pork consumption and market regulation during the Qingming holiday, the supply and demand of pork have improved.
However, at present, pig breeding has not turned a profit. A pig was slaughtered at 327 yuan in March, thanks to February 153 yuan.
According to the performance of Yang Zhenhai and the speculation of the expert team, with the continuous accumulation of favorable factors such as the large number of newborn piglets and low feed cost, pig breeding is expected to turn losses into profits in the third quarter, but the constant factors still exist. It is hoped that farmers will not only be decisive, but also slaughter fat pigs without excessive reduction in the number of sows.
Speed up production capacity
Judging from the production situation, the pig production in China has returned to the perennial level in 20021year. Due to the increase in production inertia, the output of live pigs continued to increase in the first quarter of this year, but the production capacity was further optimized.
According to the statistics of Yang Zhenhai, in the first quarter, 654.38+95.66 million pigs were slaughtered, up 14. 1% year-on-year.
Fertile sows continue to return to normal for nine months.
At the end of the first quarter, the number of fertile sows in China was 4 1.85 million, which is equivalent to a positive constant of 4 1 .002.1%,and it is in a green and fair area of capacity regulation.
It is noteworthy that listed pig enterprises have not slowed down the pace of pig slaughter.
According to the sales briefings of several listed pig enterprises in March this year, the sales of live pigs of most listed pig enterprises increased significantly year-on-year.
Among them, Mu Yuan Co., Ltd., as the number one pig breeding enterprise in China at present, sold 5.98 million pigs in March, 1 pig sales in October1pig, a record high.
Through the slaughter data of free-range pig enterprises, it is not difficult to find that free-range pig enterprises have not slowed down the slaughter progress.
Kong said.
202 1, the large number of fertile sows leads to the continuous increase in the supply of live pigs, and the long-term low price of live pigs leads to the loss and great financial and psychological pressure on the breeding end.
At present, the pig industry has entered the period of industry capital competition, and everyone is very determined. The speed of de-capacity needs to be accelerated.
Li Ming said.
Medium-sized aquaculture enterprises that do not have the upper hand in capital and funds may face greater survival pressure.
Kong believes that: at present, it is still in the capacity-removing period of this pig cycle, and because small and medium-sized breeding retail investors have the upper hand in funds, their anti-risk ability is stronger than that of free-range enterprises during the loss period of this cycle; However, the slaughter rhythm of large group aquaculture enterprises has not slowed down.
It can be seen that the high probability of this round of cycle reduction will be medium-sized aquaculture enterprises that do not have the upper hand in capital and funds.
In the future, we still need to pay attention to the de-capacity level of aquaculture enterprises in this sector.