1. Since the Federal Reserve raised interest rates significantly, the important global dollar and renminbi indexes have all fallen, and the declines have exceeded 10%. Although this has a certain relationship with the Russia-Ukraine crisis, it has nothing to do with the interest rate hike. The correlation is even greater, because in order to cope with capital flight, most countries can only passively raise interest rates, which directly suppresses the domestic economy and the stock market is bound to fall. But there is a very strange phenomenon. Logically speaking, the U.S. dollar is returning from the global market, and funds are selling other currencies to increase their holdings of the U.S. dollar. Then the U.S. stock market should rise sharply. Why is the U.S. stock market still plummeting? The Nasdaq index is higher than this year. Russia has fallen miserably, so why do funds pursue the U.S. dollar but not U.S. stocks?

Data show that in the context of the appreciation of the US dollar, in the Special Drawing Rights SDR basket, in addition to depreciating against the US dollar, the exchange rate of the RMB against

non-US dollar currencies is relatively stable.

In the eyes of market participants, there is no need to be too pessimistic about the depreciation of the RMB.

Wang Yongli, general manager of China International Futures Co., Ltd., said that China's foreign trade surplus has been expanding in recent years, and private foreign exchange reserves and the central bank's foreign exchange reserves are relatively abundant, which will help the central bank maintain the RMB exchange rate. Stablize. From a domestic perspective.

2. As long as the US dollar continues to appreciate, global stock markets will continue to be suppressed. Starting in September, the Federal Reserve will enter a new round of interest rate hike cycles, and the stock market will be more dangerous in the second half of the year. Good guy, under normal circumstances, economic problems are solved by releasing water. This time the Federal Reserve plans to do the opposite and solve the problem by raising interest rates. They think that the more interest rates are raised, the stronger the economy will be.

Obviously the effect of raising interest rates to boost the economy is not good. Currently, many economic indicators in Europe and the United States are showing signs of recession. This recession will last for at least three more years.

No one knows whether it will recover again in three years. ?

3. The biggest impact of continued interest rate hikes in the United States will be a decline in risk assets, which is likely to cause a liquidity crisis. A large amount of liquid funds will choose U.S. dollar assets with higher returns and lower risks, which will cause asset prices to fall. A large number of investors will need to replenish their margins due to falling asset prices (such as US stocks and real estate) and will have to sell other assets in exchange for US dollars. Therefore, if the U.S. dollar continues to maintain this pace of interest rate hikes, equity assets, fixed assets, etc. in various countries will soon face tremendous pressure. Cryptocurrency is an example. Since institutional capital joined in, cryptocurrency has completely become a peripheral risk asset. Therefore, as soon as there is any disturbance, capital is the first target to be sold off.

4. The fundamental reason why the RMB exchange rate has exceeded 7.1 is that the U.S. dollar index has risen too fast, and the U.S. dollar index is just in name only and has nothing to do with the currency value of the U.S. dollar

, so don’t think that the dollar has appreciated.

The U.S. dollar index is essentially an inverse indicator of a basket of currencies, which includes the euro, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, British dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc.

This is Except for the Swiss franc, all other currencies are depreciating against the US dollar, so the US dollar index will rise sharply.

However, China's price index is only 2.5%, while the US price index is as high as 8.3%. No matter how you look at it, the US dollar should be depreciating relative to the RMB. Therefore, the actual US dollar The currency value and the US dollar index are polar opposites. ?

5. In fact, the price of the US dollar in the international market is very different between different regions. This cannot be expressed by a simple exchange rate number

came out, so there is great uncertainty in the current exchange rate trend.

If you are not an expert in foreign exchange, then I definitely don’t even know how to see the real-time and accurate exchange rate. It can be said that I don’t even know what the real exchange rate is.

It is strange that you can speculate in coins without losing money under such circumstances.

The risks in the foreign exchange market are far higher than those in the stock market. It is best for ordinary people not to get involved, let alone in this abnormal period of the century. Take care of your own people

The RMB is The safest strategy.

Comparing the U.S. dollar, euro, ruble, gold, and the renminbi, do you think China is stepping on the brakes or the accelerator?

If the RMB exchange rate is controllable, financial hegemons will make their currencies higher, while China, an industrial country, will deliberately make its exchange rate lower. The United States once accused China of being a currency controller. In fact, it was right. China just did not control it according to the wishes of the United States. The RMB is now one point softer than the United States and harder than other currencies, and the margin is not bad. This range is adjusted by braking and accelerator, and is a relatively reasonable position.

In addition, as everyone is saying here, when the United States attacks China's exchange rate policy, it is when China's exchange rate is relatively low.