On March 24th, AQSIQ issued an announcement prohibiting the import of some Japanese food and agricultural products. The General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine said that the accident at the Fukushima nuclear power plant in Japan had caused serious pollution to local food and agricultural products. The General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine announced that it is forbidden to import dairy products, vegetables and their products, fruits, aquatic animals and aquatic products from Fukushima, Tochigi, Gunma, Ibaraki and Chiba in Japan from now on. Citic Securities released a research report that the hidden dangers of food safety in Japan caused by nuclear pollution may induce Japan to import a large amount of food from the international market, thus pushing up international food prices.
According to the data of the Ministry of Commerce, in 20 10, China was Japan's largest import trading partner, with an import volume of1533.7 billion US dollars. The main agricultural products imported from China account for 4% of the total import trade, while chicken products are the most important products imported from China, accounting for more than 50% of the total Japanese imports. Huang, an analyst of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery of China Merchants Securities? It is also believed that the supply of seafood in Japan is tight at present, and an emergency supply of aquatic products has been requested from Dalian Marine Fisheries Bureau.
"nuclear crisis" or pushing up international food prices
"CITIC Securities released the latest research report on Tuesday, pointing out that the earthquake in Japan and its tsunami, nuclear accident or heavy damage to local agriculture will aggravate the shortage of agricultural products in Japan." In this report, CITIC Securities pointed out that since the earthquake-stricken area is the main agricultural and fishery industrial zone in Japan, rice production occupies 7 seats in Japan 10, accounting for 35.23% of the total national output; The proportion of aquatic products production accounts for about 30% of the total. Therefore, it is predicted that disasters will lead to the decline of domestic grain, aquatic products and livestock and poultry production, while the proliferation of nuclear radioactive substances may lead to nuclear pollution of aquatic products and livestock and poultry products. Therefore, Japan may buy a lot of grain and livestock products from the international market to ease the pressure of domestic demand.
Huang, an analyst of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery of China Merchants Securities? In an interview with reporters, he also expressed the same view. He believes that food safety in Japan will be overshadowed for a long time. In a short time, there has been a rush to buy food in Japan. It will be an important task for the Japanese government to provide food for the people in a short time. The Japanese earthquake and tsunami will also increase the import of food from China to meet urgent needs, which will bring some opportunities to some food enterprises with export qualifications.
The reporter learned that many powerful brokers have said that the earthquake in Japan may boost international food prices and restore rising prices. According to the data of USDA, Japan imports about/kloc-0.5 million tons of corn and 3 million tons of soybean and wheat respectively every year. As the earthquake and nuclear leakage crisis continue, the market expects Japan to import more grain, so it is expected that the grain market will be tense in the future, which may boost the grain price in the later period. Mao Changqing of CITIC Securities believes that the strong earthquake in Japan in March 1 1 led to a sharp drop in Chicago agricultural futures prices. The instantaneous reaction of agricultural product prices actually comes from the market's concern about the reduction of global demand caused by the slowdown of Japan's economic growth, and it is also a technical decline caused by the depreciation of the yen and the appreciation of the US dollar. But in fact, the earthquake and tsunami have dealt a heavy blow to agriculture and fisheries in northeastern Japan, which is an important rice producing area and fishing area in Japan. Earthquake, tsunami and nuclear leakage not only destroy farmland, but also lead to poor crop growth, food, animal husbandry and fishery pollution, which will affect food supply for a long time. "We judge that Japan's import demand in the international market will be further amplified. After all, Japan is the largest corn importer, the second largest wheat importer and the third largest soybean importer in the United States, so it is expected that international product prices will continue to rise. "
Domestic related enterprises may benefit.
In this context, Mao Changqing of CITIC Securities believes that domestic agricultural export enterprises are expected to benefit. About 55% of imported chicken products, 44% of imported frozen vegetables and fresh vegetables, and 8% of imported prawns come from China. China exports 85% of Japanese chicken products, 70% of roasted eel and 22% of prawns. We believe that the short-term demand for domestic seafood may be suppressed due to the uncertainty of the diffusion of nuclear radioactive substances, the instability of Fukushima nuclear reactor, and the public's insufficient understanding of nuclear materials, nuclear radiation hazards and nuclear fears. In the medium and long term, in the process of post-disaster reconstruction, the import of major agricultural products in China, including aquatic products, poultry and vegetables, may increase, and the broiler breeding industry may benefit the most.
"The affected northern and northeastern parts of Japan are the main bases of Japanese rice producing areas, scallops and animal husbandry. Although the self-sufficiency rate of rice in Japan is as high as 90%, if farmland is soaked in seawater, it may lead to soil salinization and the cultivation environment of cultivated land will become worse. Once these environments are destroyed, it is difficult to recover in a short time, resulting in a reduction in rice production, an increase in import demand and an increase in international food prices. The earthquake and tsunami also directly affected mariculture, fishery and animal husbandry in Japan. Northeast Japan is an important mariculture and fishing area. The earthquake and tsunami have caused direct damage to the industry in the short term, and may also affect the marine and geological environment and the aquaculture industry in the medium and long term. The living environment, and the current intensified nuclear leakage will also cause incalculable sequelae to the ecological environment around Japan. " Yellow? Weigh.