Judging from the propositions held by Trump during the campaign, the foreign economic policy is centered on trade protectionism, advocating the abolition of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement, and severe crackdowns on It infringes on intellectual property rights and even launches a trade war to protect uncompetitive special interest groups in the United States. Trump's above-mentioned proposals may not necessarily be implemented or implemented for a long time. They will not help stimulate the U.S. economy. Instead, they will dampen investment confidence in the United States due to uncertainty. A trade war between the United States and its trading partners may disrupt the global production chain and affect global trade and production. The implementation of U.S. trade protection policies will also push up trade costs and lead to cost-push inflation. It will also directly lead to a reduction in the trade surplus of major U.S. trading partners, especially China and other Asian economies.

Trump’s trade protectionist proposals will also increase downward pressure on China’s economy. 2017 will be the middle and late stages of China's financial cycle. The reliance on credit extension to maintain economic growth has reached its limit, and the downward pressure on the economy has become increasingly prominent. After Trump came to power, in order to fulfill his campaign promises, if he raises tariffs or sets up trade barriers on some Chinese-made goods, which will lead to an increase in Sino-US trade friction, it will force the Chinese government to relax monetary policy again to hedge against external shocks. , thereby increasing the probability and magnitude of financial risks in our country. Trump's implementation of tightening trade protection measures, increased protection of intellectual property rights, and changes in domestic immigration policies may inhibit trade imports of goods from China, especially low-end goods. These unfavorable factors will lead to a decline in China's manufacturing investment and employment. China can only relieve the pressure by expanding domestic demand, thus further affecting the Chinese economy.

Trump’s policies may worsen both my country’s current account and financial account, thereby increasing pressure for RMB depreciation. The Sino-US trade war will not only reduce China's trade surplus but also damage our country's current account surplus. At the same time, it will also affect the intensity of my country's introduction of foreign investment. On the other hand, the United States' increased efforts to attract capital backflow will also intensify the outflow of Chinese capital, resulting in increased pressure for RMB depreciation. Of course, although the wolf is coming, the wolf will not come immediately. Whether Trump's policy ideas can be implemented depends on the longer legislative process in the United States and the support of the Democratic Party. Obviously, Trump’s ideas are quite different from the current U.S. policies and may trigger trade disputes and conflicts between countries. This may have a series of adverse consequences for the United States. Whether and when the policy can be implemented remains to be seen. time.