Kant said that what we know is only the appearance of the world, only the phenomenal world. As the essence of things, that is, "things themselves", we can't know it.

What interests me is that he made us realize the limitations of human understanding seriously and calmly. This awareness of the futures market is very accurate and helps us to think.

For example, do we really know whether the market will go up or down every time? Do you really know what is the final factor that determines every rise and fall? Is it the relationship between supply and demand in the market or the arbitrary speculation of large households? Market supply and demand are determined by several reasons. Is there another unknown factor? Which Lian Heng, which joined the company, controlled the big family? Is it because the opposite funds defected and one side won by luck?

Because there are too many major events, their development trends are determined by accidents. Even if we have extraordinary logical thinking and rational thinking ability, even if we are as wise as Einstein, can we certainly analyze and recognize these accidents and the general trends determined by these accidents?

The answer is obviously no, based on this understanding, we should not always trust our own judgment 100% and stubbornly not make second-hand preparations like Zhuge Liang in the play (only in the play, the real Zhuge Liang is much more mediocre).

It must be clear that we can't understand many market situations. But why can we expand most of the market?

First, we can consider doing it with 70% confidence. Because in this way, nine times out of ten, you can win, and you will win with a high probability.

Second, the profit-loss ratio can be above 3: 1. Because after three times, it won't lose money. Of course, it is more ideal to have both. We should also strive to find such opportunities and improve the winning rate.

Third, you can follow the trend, go against the trend, and immediately go out and wait and see. This is also in line with the principle of reasonable arrangement of risk-return ratio.

This is the futures stock market. Why do we say that there are many famous sayings that we can't understand, but it doesn't mean that we shouldn't do them.