The latest Report on the Development of Oil and Gas Industry at Home and Abroad issued by the Economic and Technical Research Institute of China Petroleum Group shows that the development of oil and gas industry has entered a period of turbulent change, and there are many uncertain factors.
This year, international oil and gas prices will remain at a high level. The overall recovery of China's macro-economy will stimulate the rapid growth of energy consumption. It is estimated that the domestic oil consumption will be 756 million tons in 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 5. 1%. The consumption of refined oil was 398 million tons, up 9. 1% year-on-year.
According to the report data, the average annual price of Brent crude oil futures rose by 39.6% in 2022, and the average price was close to 20 14. The global natural gas trade volume has declined for three consecutive years, and the trade pattern has undergone historic adjustment. Russian pipeline gas gradually withdrew from the European market, and the United States increased the supply of liquefied natural gas to Europe. The global natural gas trade volume was 1.2 trillion cubic meters, down 1.0% year-on-year.
Characteristics of oil consumption
First, China's oil consumption is picking up, and the supply and demand of refined oil market are loose. It is expected that the domestic oil market will accelerate its recovery, showing a trend of low before and high after. It is estimated that the domestic oil consumption will be 756 million tons in 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 5. 1%. The consumption of refined oil was 398 million tons, up 9. 1% year-on-year. The output of refined oil exceeds the demand by 35 million tons, and the market supply situation is relatively loose.
Second, the demand for natural gas in China shows a recovery growth, and the overall supply and demand situation is tight. It is estimated that the national natural gas demand will resume rapid growth, with an annual consumption of 386.5 billion cubic meters, with a growth rate of 5.2%.
Third, domestic oil and gas enterprises will further promote high-quality development, and the capacity of the oil and gas industry chain will continue to improve. Crude oil production will remain above 200 million tons, and natural gas production is expected to exceed 230 billion cubic meters.
Fourth, in 2023, China's energy policy will focus on the construction of new energy system, further improve the "double carbon" 1+N policy system, and accelerate the implementation of the objectives and tasks of the 14th Five-Year Plan.