Trade and investment balance

The balance between trade and investment is considered by analysts to be the factors that affect the dollar, such as the trade balance, the import and export of goods and services, etc.

1, balance of investment or current account. If exports exceed imports, it is called surplus, and vice versa.

2. Trade balance. The trade balance is equal to the difference between imports and exports. American trade has increased, the prices of goods outside the United States have fallen, and American consumers have become more attractive. On the contrary, foreign commodity prices have risen, and American products look more attractive.

3. Investment balance. If the United States imports more than it exports, investors will buy American bonds or securities denominated in dollars.

(2) Budget and taxation.

4. The US budget may affect the US dollar. If foreign investors are optimistic about the US economic prospects, they will buy US Treasury bonds.

If the financial sector maintains good credit, the United States is considered as the most reliable borrower in the world, and the dollar will strengthen.

6. The popularity of the president of the United States may also affect the dollar.

7. War will hurt consumer confidence and business confidence. During the war, the budget deficit will become expensive and investors will be nervous, which may increase the risk of debt or default.

8. The geopolitical situation may have a negative impact on the US dollar.

9. If investors think that the US dollar is a safe haven, they may flock to the US dollar, so the fluctuation of the foreign exchange market is small and the policies are consistent, and investors will hold the US dollar.

10, fiscal expenditure. If the United States increases its fiscal expenditure and budget, it may increase the opportunity cost and expenses.

1 1, the United States has a new congressman, or the US presidential election and new laws are passed, and investors may flock to the US dollar or flee from the US dollar.

12, tax cuts are good news for consumers, and encouraging consumption will help reduce the deficit.

(3) External influences such as trade and consumption of other countries.

13. If financial risks occur in other countries, investors will flock to the US dollar.

14. If other countries' currencies are stable, investors will increase their confidence and choose other countries' currencies, and the US dollar may fall.

15. Changes in foreign exchange reserves of other countries. Most countries hold foreign exchange in dollars. If foreign exchange reserves change, it may also affect the US dollar.

16, the euro appreciated. If the euro appreciates, investors will choose the euro instead of the dollar.

17, oil price. Oil is denominated in dollars. If other countries buy oil in dollars, the dollar may rise.

18, the economies of other countries are booming. If other countries' economies are booming, the attractiveness of the dollar may decrease.

(4) Welfare and social security.

19, the decline of social security in the United States may make investors lose confidence, but if we are committed to the reform plan, it will benefit the US dollar.

20. Medicaid. The health care plan may prompt investors to seek a more stable budget.

(5) Supply and demand.

Supply and demand are economic laws, and so is the dollar.

2 1, the increase in dollar demand may push up the dollar.

22. Demand for currencies other than the US dollar. If the demand for currencies other than the US dollar increases, the demand for the US dollar may decrease.

23. Money supply. With the issuance of additional currency, the purchasing power of the US dollar declines and inflation intensifies.

(6) interest rate.

24, interest rates rise, investors get more profits, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates or makes the dollar stronger.

25. Interest rates in other countries. If the currencies of other countries are attractive, the attractiveness of the dollar will decrease.

26. Expectation of interest rate fluctuation, which may lead investors to flood in funds or withdraw funds.

7. American consumers.

27. Consumer savings. In fact, most Americans don't save, and their family net worth is negative. Americans save abroad, which may make the dollar less attractive.

28. Natural gas price. When the price of natural gas rises, consumers spend less elsewhere, borrow money to live, and consumption is weak, the Fed will relax its stimulus and the dollar will fall.

When Americans buy foreign goods, such as Wal-Mart or Honda, the trade deficit will weaken the dollar.

30. Spending too much may hurt the dollar.

(8) Real estate market.

3 1. The growth rate of the real estate market has slowed down. If investors default on loans, household spending will decrease, and the economic slowdown will reduce the attractiveness of the dollar.

32. The growth of the real estate market and the growth of mortgage loans for home purchases supported the US dollar.

33. The real estate market is over-inflated, house prices fluctuate, wealth declines and the economy declines or the dollar depreciates.

(9) Industrial and economic indicators.

34. As industrial growth slows down, investors may be more cautious about investing in dollar-denominated assets.

35. With the acceleration of industrial growth, the US dollar has become more attractive.

36. Enterprise outsourcing, outsourcing and trade deficit may lead to the decline of the US dollar, and outsourcing has caused foreign investors to flood into American companies.

37. New enterprises. Entrepreneurship has given foreign investors more opportunities to support the dollar.

38. Employment growth may attract investors.

39. Wage growth allows investors to increase their holdings of dollars.

(10) American capital market.

40. A falling stock market will shake investors' confidence, they will diversify their investments, and the dollar will also fall.

4 1, the stock market rose, attracting new investors and encouraging early investors to invest more money.

42. Financial reports of listed companies. Good financial reports attract investors.

(1 1) Economy

43. With the steady economic growth, investors' confidence will increase, and investors will also flood in.

44. When the economy goes down, the dollar will also fall. If investors are worried that their investments will lose value, they will withdraw their funds.

If the American economy is better than other countries, investors will flock to the United States. Otherwise, it will quit.

(12) Weather

The weather may affect agriculture and local economy, and the chain reaction will lead to the fluctuation of the US dollar.

46. The hot summer will increase the energy cost, which will lead to the fall of the US dollar.

47. The cold winter has led to an increase in energy costs, and the disposable income of consumers may flood into other fields.

48. Natural disasters, such as hurricanes and other natural disasters, the federal government will spend money on disaster relief or reconstruction.

(13) Inflation.

49. Inflation reduces the purchasing power of the US dollar, and the purchasing power of an international currency and the overall price level change in the opposite direction.

50. Rising inflation and declining purchasing power weakened the dollar. Anticipated inflation may cause the foreign exchange market to react first, and market fluctuation and trade deficit may reduce the attractiveness of the US dollar.