Domestic refined oil price adjustment is determined by the refined oil price adjustment mechanism. What are the influencing factors of refined oil price adjustment mechanism?
This is the sixth adjustment of domestic refined oil in 2020. After this price adjustment, what will be the price adjustment range of refined oil products in 2020? Zero, three, three, three stranded? Mode.
At present, the international crude oil price has fallen to the lowest point since 18, and the US WTI and Brent futures prices are both close to $20/barrel. As of March 30th, WTI crude oil futures closed down 1.42 USD to 20.09 USD/barrel; Brent crude oil futures closed down 2. 17 USD to 22.76 USD/barrel, with a comprehensive change rate of crude oil of -33.52%. It is estimated that the corresponding downward adjustment range is 12 10 RMB/ton, which is about 0.9 yuan/liter.
In the past fifteen years, China's refined oil price adjustment system has undergone five major adjustments. Except for the first stage, the overall oil price is regulated by many policies, and there is no fixed adjustment system, which makes the refined oil price forecast of related enterprises invalid, and the risk of increasing or decreasing inventory is greater. In addition, this rationality also leads to the decline of speculative opportunities.
Compared with the previous standards, the adjustment just made is an improvement in marketization. Among them, the price adjustment standard has been lowered, which has reduced the daily average fluctuation threshold from 0. 17-0. 18 yuan to about 0.08 yuan, and shortened the price adjustment period, which has also improved the phenomenon that domestic refined oil lags behind international crude oil price fluctuations.
Although the fluctuation rhythm has improved compared with international crude oil, the fluctuation range has narrowed in the previous stages, which also shows that the policy control of refined oil prices only stays at the level of linkage.
As for the reason for the narrow range, it can be seen from the prices of refined oil at home and abroad that there is an obvious premium in domestic refined oil prices, and this premium mainly increased in the second half of 2008. At that time, crude oil fell sharply in the financial crisis, while the decline of domestic refined oil prices was far less than that of international oil prices. In this case, the fluctuation center of the gross profit margin of oil refining enterprises rose from about -5% to about 5%. Although the spread in the fourth stage has converged, the premium is still very obvious. In terms of relative gross profit margin, facing the same crude oil cost, Singapore and the Netherlands basically reach 5%- 10%, while the central United States is around 15%, which shows that China's refining technology is still very backward, and it is also one of the driving forces for the decoupling of refined oil prices.