(Haitong Securities midday daily weekly chart)
(midday brokerage ETF weekly chart)
(CITIC Securities midday daily weekly chart)
Judging from Haitong Securities and Brokerage Index, the daily level has formed a double bottom, and the weekly level has been rising since July last year to support the lower edge of the box. Shareholders can measure their own risks and benefits. I think the benefits outweigh the risks. Judging from the daily and weekly lines of CITIC Securities, it has been fully adjusted in place, and the sharp drop of brokers this time, especially yesterday and the day before yesterday, was triggered by the allotment instruction issued by CITIC Securities. The news has been completely digested at present.
Before the Spring Festival, I wrote an article about the brokerage sector. Now, many netizens advised me that the brokerage sector is estimated to be hopeless. I have always been very optimistic about this article and can hold it for a long time. Don't make temporary adjustments in a hurry. I think we should ambush for a long time, as long as this ticket is ok and the industry is ok.
I sincerely thank this friend for reminding me. I still value my point of view. There will be a lot of bad news and unique analysis in the stock market. We can't affirm or deny everything. It is the real king to carefully analyze the logical relationship behind it and find the appropriate operation or response.
The above is my personal judgment. Guangfa shareholders should sum up their own operational skills and have unique thinking and analysis.
The brokerage sector will definitely continue to fall in the later period, but the downside is very limited.
The reason for this is the following：
First, the brokerage index is still adjusting downward, and the brokerage sector is still in a weak market. The adjustment is not over yet, and brokerage stocks will definitely fall.
Second, the brokerage index has not stopped falling recently, and it is still in a downward trend. According to the general trend of the current brokerage index, the probability that brokerage stocks will continue to fall is 95%!
Third, brokerage stocks are obviously short of funds and popularity, and they are also under the pressure of selling in the market, which means that it is difficult for brokers to go up and down, and they can't go at all, which further proves that brokerage stocks will fall.
The above three reasons are the real reasons why the brokerage sector will continue to fall.
But then again, although the brokerage sector will continue to fall in the short term, it is certain that the downside is very limited, and the short-term decline is an opportunity for low absorption.
The brokerage sector in the market outlook continues to be optimistic, and the real opportunity of the brokerage sector is still behind. We must learn to be patient and wait patiently for the opportunity of the brokerage sector to break out.
Let's start with the conclusion. There is still a high probability of downside in the later period, but the overall valuation of the brokerage sector in this position is acceptable, so there is no need to panic. There are probably several reasons for the recent adjustment.
1, dragged down by the market
The overvaluation of "Baotuan Stock" is obvious, the market adjustment pressure is great, the "Baotuan Stock" collapses, the market panics, and the mud and sand are everywhere, so it is difficult for brokers to be immune to it.
2. "Industry pacesetter" is too capable.
As an industry leader, the unbearable behavior of a securities firm has also had a negative impact, causing the market to "vote with its feet"!
First, when Maotai hit a new high of 2,627 and the "shareholding" was obviously overvalued, it did not prompt the market risk in time, but sang more Maotai to more than 3,000, which was very untimely, deviated from the teaching purpose and lacked professionalism!
Second, the "rogue" raised more than 20 billion yuan, and it was a bit ugly to cast a shock bomb during the sensitive period of the market!
The leadership is frustrated and the negative impact on the plate is obvious.
3. Empiricism kills people
Influenced by the traditional thinking of "bull market pulls brokers", ordinary investors are deeply involved in this sector in the early stage, accounting for a relatively large proportion, and the herd effect is obvious, so it is difficult to form a rational linkage effect. Usually, the market will soar, and once there is a problem, the market will plummet.
4. The impact of policy orientation on the industry
Policies such as opening foreign capital market access and encouraging the "bank+brokerage" model have had an obvious impact on the existing brokerage groups, resulting in difficulties in the operation of basic economic business in the industry, increased competitive pressure, reduced basic income and increased income from new business. However, the high concentration of new business has caused great operating pressure to small and medium-sized brokers, and there are many uncertain factors in their future development.
In the future, the competition in the industry will intensify, and some small and medium-sized brokers with slow transformation will face the pressure of survival, which will lead to the market's anxiety about the future and the sector's reluctance to do more.
However, the overall valuation of the sector is acceptable. It is the general trend to establish the concept of social financial management and strengthen national financial management education. There is still a lot of room for development after industry integration.
Therefore, the future development of the plate can still be expected!
The ups and downs of A shares have always exceeded expectations. The ups and downs can't predict where the top is, just like the big consumer stocks such as liquor and home appliances, and the downs can't predict where the bottom is, just like the brokerage banks now.
Brokers are most worried about the profit decline caused by homogenization competition and the asset quality of brokerage intermediary business. Just like CITIC Securities has accrued several billion yuan in asset impairment losses in the past 20 years, even if it has accrued large losses, its performance has maintained positive growth.
On the other hand, a large amount of funds are used for large-scale consumption, and there is no deep participation of institutional funds. The overall market trend of non-controlling shares is not good. As a hot plate, brokers have also fallen sharply under the pressure of funds. It is not excluded that some funds do not want to see new hot spots to divert their holdings, which brings adjustment pressure, and the bull market flag bearer has become one of the most bear sectors.
Although the brokerage trend is not good, I am optimistic about the future trend of the brokerage sector. One is that the performance growth can be sustained, and the other is that the valuation is not high. Many head brokers have a price-earnings ratio of only a dozen times. The third is that the policy of building aircraft carrier-level brokers remains unchanged. Fourth, the group stocks are adjusted at a high level, and financial stocks will have opportunities for rotation in the future.
Brokers, first of all, must answer the landlord's questions, and will continue to fall later! It will continue to fall! It will continue to fall! [Sad] [Sad] [Sad] Say the important things three times! ! !
As for brokers, some stocks have fallen to strong support and will rebound, but like the flow of wealth in the East, the decline will become the mainstream.
I have answered several questions about securities, but many people are still concerned about this issue. It seems that many retail investors are involved.
To answer this question, let's first look at the disk from last year to the present. It is easy to understand why the market has not gone up.
Since July last year, the securities sector has kept pace with the market, and the pull-up index has exceeded the high point of 3 100-3200 in recent years. However, after the middle of July last year, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated in the box of 3200-3450. When it fell, it hit the lower rail of the box and went up. When it rose to 3400-3450, it oscillated for half a year. The securities sector fell more and rose less, and basically entered the adjustment period. Of course, most of them are, because there are only a few decimal trends.
From the end of last year to the beginning of this year, the index broke through the 3450 line in one fell swoop and pulled the index for six consecutive years at the beginning of this year. But the reality we see is that the index is pushed up by the weight index of less than 20%, and 7-80% of the votes in the market actually fell to the low point of 2440 formed after the stock market crash of 20 15, which means that 7-80% of the votes in the market have entered a bear market. And the index is still a bull market.
Since entering the bear market, brokers will definitely not be good, so brokers adjusted all the way at the beginning of this year. At that time, Brother Hong answered that the securities rebound needed a majority of votes to go well.
After the holiday, we saw the reversal of market style. Before the holiday, the index rose and individual stocks fell. The fund holds a batch of stocks and makes a lot of money. However, at present, we see that the number of fund issuance has reached a new low. The star manager's funds withdrew within a week 17%. After the holiday, the index basically fell and the stock rose, and 70-80% of the receipts still rebounded. The game of funds has formed a rotation,
Before the first day of the year, someone consulted Brother Hong, and the fund made a lot of money. The stock continues to fall, and he is going to clear the position for the fund. Brother Hong made it clear that you can't do that, and don't do a fund that doubles in popularity, especially alcohol. On the contrary, it needs a fund that makes a lot of money to oversold and fall into a dog ticket. Listen to Brother Hong, there should be a good result. The future market has always been divided.
As an old hand, I remind you, maybe you stick to the big ticket, throw high and suck low. Maybe you just insist on oversold receipts and come to band operation.
Size allocation, the overall idea is that it is not surprising at first glance, rising more and falling less.
Of course, Brother Hong has been working hard for many years, and he is more concerned about the risks of the stock market, so he will not be a high-powered core vote.
You can continue to look for opportunities in oversold receipts, such as 5G. Semiconductors, games, digital currency and other emerging technologies.
There have been many high throws in this pull-up in the past two days, so now it is low suction. Fluctuating market band profit is the key.
Let's talk about securities. During this period, the securities will rebound, but Hong Ge thinks that the standard-bearer of the bull market or the overall market expectation will be lower, for the following reasons.
First, the issuance of securities licenses by banks in the future means that the unique securities business has been shared by others. There will no longer be a monopoly business, foreign securities will also be open, securities will no longer be scarce, and the title of the future bull market flag bearer will not be worthy of the name.
2. The future market will be divided and shaken. The bull market is gone, and delisting under the registration system has increased. In this way, securities will also bear some risks, such as the risk of pledge, the risk of underwriting, and the risk of stepping on thunder in performance. Therefore, the stocks in the securities sector will also be divided, some stocks are bullish and some stocks are bearish.
3. Under such active trading, you can allocate securities in one position, without heavy positions, and you need to identify individual stocks to do it, and you need band operation, because the urgent cow is gone. The future is relatively stable and slow, and then the securities will be slow.
Pay attention to the professional red brother, and we will beat the 202 1 market together. .
It will definitely not continue to fall continuously in the near future.
The continuous decline of the securities sector (assisted by the bank's seesaw) has been achieved. At present, the low position has accumulated enough "strong enough chips to deal with market risks" and has "strong enough voice".
I think: the securities sector will begin to "rise in stages" in recent days.
When the brokerage sector fell to the starting position in July last year, it was basically at the bottom, and you can open a position.
Can be configured, other financial departments have shown, just brokers.