The premium delivery system is that the distribution ratio of premium and flat copper warehouse receipts in a specific period is agreed by the docking member units under the condition that the exchange artificially formulates the policy products.
According to the delivery system of Shanghai Futures Exchange, registered copper is divided into two different delivery grades: standard and substitute. The former is standard cathode copper, and the latter includes high purity cathode copper and LME registered cathode copper. Among them, the registered copper that meets the standard of high-purity cathode copper and is recognized by the exchange is delivered at a premium, and the premium range is 1 10 yuan, commonly known as "premium copper"; Other domestic brands and imported LME registered copper are delivered according to the standard level and do not enjoy a premium, so they are used to being called "flat copper". At present, among all registered brands, only the following five brands enjoy premium: Guiye brand of Jiangxi Copper, Tongguan brand of Tongling, Tiefeng brand of Yunnan Copper, Golden Dolphin brand of Jinlong Copper and Ding Tong brand of Zhangjiagang United Copper, among which the first four brands have been registered in LME. Although there are not many high-quality copper brands, they all belong to large domestic copper factories, accounting for more than half of the total domestic output.
The premium delivery system of registered copper follows the previous model of Shanghai Metal Exchange. At the beginning, the system was mainly based on the following considerations: First, distinguish and balance the quality differences between different brands of domestic copper. The grade and quality of copper produced by domestic copper factories are different because of the different process equipment and technology. The products of some state-owned factories can reach a higher grade, that is, they meet the national standard GB/T467- 1997 for advanced cathode copper, and the purity can reach 99.9935%. However, the cathode copper of some small and medium-sized manufacturers can only reach the national standard GB/T467- 1997, and the copper and silver content is not less than 99.95%. Second, we must protect and support major domestic copper factories. Copper is a strategic substance. At that time, domestic copper production was very limited and heavily dependent on imports. However, domestic copper enterprises are generally small in scale and lack of competitive advantage. The implementation of delivery premium system can protect the development of domestic copper plants to a certain extent. Third, at the beginning of the establishment of Shanghai Gold Exchange, in order to attract large domestic copper factories to actively participate in copper futures trading and value-added delivery, the exchange inevitably implemented certain policy inclinations for copper delivery of these factories when formulating the delivery system.
However, this delivery system has been evolving, and its exposed disadvantages are becoming more and more obvious, which has increasingly caused market participants to question its rationality.
First of all, the premium delivery system is a policy product artificially formulated by the exchange in a specific period. Due to the passage of time and the lack of market pricing mechanism, it has gradually become out of touch with domestic and foreign markets and lost its rationality of existence, which has aroused opposition from all parties in the market.
First, consumers think that high-quality copper is of good quality, but the use cost is too high. Many users only need to use ordinary grade flat copper. If premium copper is accepted at the time of delivery, they will have to bear the extra premium cost of 1 10 yuan. Even those users who must use high-grade copper because of product quality and production process requirements, try to choose imported copper with the same quality instead to save the premium. Therefore, the premium delivery system does not consider the demand difference of different user groups for different grades of copper in terms of consumption.
Second, importers believe that the quality of imported copper is not worse than that of high-quality copper. Some brands, such as CCC brand in Chile, are even better than some premium copper, but they cannot enjoy any premium, which is obviously unfair.
Third, some Pingshui copper manufacturers don't believe that their copper is not much worse than Youshui. Why do they sell less 1 10 yuan? They think that the insurance premium payment system is unreasonable. For example, after the quality of Jinchuan and Daye copper is improved, it can basically reach the grade standard of superior copper. The spot market is very tight, but the delivery is not economical. In fact, the price difference between Pingshui and premium copper in the spot market rarely really reaches 1 10 yuan, which is generally between tens of yuan.
Secondly, due to the inherent defects of the premium delivery system, a large amount of premium copper has been deposited in the exchange warehouse. The reasons for this phenomenon are as follows:
First, because the liquidity of premium copper in the spot market is relatively poor, its manufacturers are more willing to register as warehouse receipts for physical delivery, which not only solves the sales problem, but also obtains additional premium income higher than that in the spot market. Therefore, some manufacturers even take premium copper for delivery, and then go to the spot market to buy other flat copper to fulfill the obligation of spot delivery; Imported copper and some high-quality horizontal copper sell well in the spot market, which can not only sell at a good price, but also save unnecessary delivery costs, and most of them are reluctant to choose delivery. As a result of this trade-off, the premium of physical delivery and the proportion of copper are increasingly unbalanced.
Secondly, due to the large basis difference of Shanghai copper contract in the past, many traders were attracted to take over the spot and throw it to the forward for intertemporal arbitrage trading. Because arbitrageurs don't care whether the received warehouse receipts are premium, some even go to the spot market to buy premium copper warehouse receipts at a relatively low price, or exchange warehouse receipts for arbitrage delivery to obtain additional price difference. However, in the second half of the year, with the sharp contraction of basis, arbitrage opportunities disappeared, resulting in a large amount of premium copper delivered in the previous period continuously depositing in the exchange warehouse, which became one of the factors leading to expansion and high inventory.
Third, in the absence of arbitrageurs receiving goods, the people who deliver and receive goods become actual users. Because many users only want to flatten copper, the structure of copper in the exchange is becoming more and more abnormal, that is, there are fewer and fewer flattened copper, while the proportion of copper in the premium is increasing, and this imbalance is more prominent with the decline of stocks. It has been vividly pointed out that the current premium delivery system has turned the exchange and its designated warehouses into some "reservoirs" for premium copper, and the premium copper warehouse receipt has almost become a special tool for arbitrage trading and mortgage financing.
Finally, due to the serious imbalance between premium copper and flat copper in the warehouse of the exchange, many users are reluctant to accept premium copper, but are eager for a very limited number of flat copper warehouse receipts, and the exchange is forced to stipulate the distribution ratio of premium copper warehouse receipts to the member units that dock the goods during delivery and matching. It is understood that the distribution ratio held by the exchange in recent months is that the flat copper warehouse receipt is only about 10%-20%, while the premium copper is as high as 80%-90%. Many actual users complain about this delivery limitation. At the same time, before the monthly delivery, some users will look around for flat copper warehouse receipt holders to cash out, so as to avoid receiving premium copper during normal delivery, especially those users who don't need to use high-grade premium copper at all.
People in the industry have been calling for an early solution to the disadvantages and irrationality brought by the existing premium payment system. But how to solve it, opinions vary, and there are roughly the following schemes:
First, gradually abolish the premium delivery system. But the problem is that once the premium is cancelled, these premium copper manufacturers will not only be unable to enjoy the premium discount in the future, but also bear the losses caused by handling the existing warehouse receipts. The difficulty can be imagined, and there is a balance of interests. In fact, it is not difficult to solve the technical problems caused by the cancellation of premiums. A cancellation schedule or grace period (such as one year) can be established first, so that premium copper production enterprises can gradually adjust their preservation and delivery plans, and at the same time, the market can have enough time to digest the existing premium copper warehouse receipts; For the last remaining warehouse receipt, when the premium is cancelled, it can be solved by imitating the original "Ueno" card (that is, the current "Xinye" card); However, within the stipulated grace period, the newly generated warehouse receipts originally belonging to premium copper brands will no longer enjoy premium treatment. The cancellation of premium will have an immediate effect on eliminating the abnormal phenomenon that a large amount of premium copper is stored in the warehouse of the exchange at present. For example, the premium of the "Shangye" brand that has been stranded in the warehouse of the exchange for a long time will soon flow out of the warehouse and enter the circulation after being cancelled. However, some people worry that if the premium delivery is cancelled, the poor quality horizontal copper will be difficult to sell, and the warehouse receipts circulating in the market or the spot copper accumulated in the warehouse may be mostly replaced by these original horizontal copper, resulting in new anomalies.
Second, adjust the premium range and narrow the price difference between premium and copper to balance the conflict of interest between supply and demand. However, how much premium is appropriate and acceptable to all parties in the market should be determined after extensive consultation with all parties in the market.
Third, implement a floating premium system. According to the demand for different grades of copper during the delivery period for a period of time, the exchange regularly adjusts the premium range in combination with the sales price difference of different grades of copper in the spot market. Of course, this will increase the workload and difficulty of communication. In addition, when the market is at different price levels, it is unreasonable to adopt fixed premium standards. For example, when the copper price is 30,000 yuan, the premium ratio of 1 10 yuan is only 0.36%, and when the copper price is15,000 yuan, it doubles to 0.73%. So, should the premium range be adjusted according to the level of copper price?
Fourthly, according to the trading mode of the spot warehouse receipt, the electronic trading board is specially designed, and the brands ready for delivery are marked after delivery, and the delivery price difference between different brands is automatically adjusted through market bidding, so as to match themselves. That is, the premium range between different brands, and even the delivery pairing is completely determined by the market mechanism.
Finally, the imported copper is treated differently, and the premium is delivered in the same interval. In fact, LME registered copper can basically meet the quality standards of advanced cathode copper in China. Some brands, such as CCC brand in Chile, even surpass some domestic high-quality copper, and the spot market price is higher than that of high-quality copper, but they cannot deliver high-quality copper. In addition, at present, four of the top five high-quality copper brands in China have been registered in LME. Assuming that these brands are "imported" by domestic enterprises after export, should they be treated as high-quality copper or flat copper? In addition, the quality of LME registered copper is actually different. For example, some brands in Chile, Japan and South Korea are of good quality, while brands produced in other countries, such as India and the Philippines, are relatively poor, but LME has not implemented a promotion and discount system. Therefore, the domestic premium system should be abolished, in line with international standards, or different brands of imported copper should be treated equally at home and abroad, and premium delivery should be implemented according to their actual quality and market recognition.