1, the restriction factor of calcium carbide end is weakened.
The price trend of calcium carbide is basically similar to that of PVC, which began to drop sharply in June 10, and then fell again after a short-term rebound. On February 3, 65438, the price index of calcium carbide was 5050 yuan/ton, which was 37% lower than that of 8000 yuan/ton on 18/0/0, and 5/kloc-higher than the average of 3336 yuan/ton since 10. From the production point of view, the electricity price of enterprises in the main producing areas has decreased, the cost of calcium carbide has decreased by 640 yuan/ton, the profit rate of calcium carbide has increased, and the operating rate of enterprises is expected to increase gradually. With the increase of operating rate of calcium carbide, the restrictive factors of starting PVC at calcium carbide end are weakening.
2. There is room for weakening supply and demand.
In June, 5438+February, the maintenance loss of PVC devices decreased compared with June165438+1October, and the devices of PVC production enterprises gradually resumed production. In the short term, the operating rate of PVC is lower than the peak level in the same period and the same period last year, and there is room for improvement. From the perspective of PVC demand, the terminal operating rate is at a low level in the two weeks before and after the Spring Festival. From the perspective of external demand, foreign devices have been restored one after another, the price of crude oil in the outer disk has fallen, and export orders are expected to be affected. Before the end of 65438+February, the supply and demand of PVC have room to weaken. With the hosting of the Winter Olympics, the phased demand for PVC will be suppressed from 1 to February. There are also some interference factors in the supply side of PVC, and the impact on the market in the later stage is still uncertain.
3. The accumulated pressure may continue to increase.
165438+1In the week of October 26th, the social inventory of PVC increased month on month. Judging from the year-on-year change of inventory, the current inventory is higher than the same period in 2020, which is obviously higher than the same period in 20 19. There is room for weakening the supply and demand chain in June 5438+February, and the pressure of inventory accumulation may continue to increase.
4. On the whole, the price of calcium carbide is at a historical high, the maintenance devices will be restored one after another, the supply will gradually increase, and the domestic demand will be average. It is expected that the inventory pressure will gradually increase before the end of 65438+February, and PVC will be dominated by weak shocks. Attention should be paid to the influence of extreme weather on transportation in the later period.
Pvc futures, that is, futures varieties with PVC as the subject matter. PVC, that is, polyvinyl chloride, is a thermoplastic resin. It is also called four basic building materials with steel, wood and cement, and five general-purpose resins with PP, PE, ABS and PS, which is the product with the largest consumption of organochlorine in chlor-alkali industry.