3% yield is the psychological barrier of benchmark 10 national debt. We know that a person with bad credit has to pay higher interest when borrowing money, and so does the country. Since the credit of RMB is lower than that of USD, the bond yield of China, which is equivalent to the loan interest rate, is bound to be higher than that of US Treasury bonds. But this is within the scope that Yi Gang, the governor of the central bank, once said. Is he satisfied with the spread of 100 basis points between China and the United States? Generally speaking, when a country's economy grows steadily, investors will be full of confidence in the future bond yield. On the contrary, when there is a financial crisis or the uncertainty about the future deepens, investors' confidence in it will weaken.

According to the unbiased expectation theory, if investors think that the short-term yield will rise in the future, then the yield curve will show an upward trend; Otherwise, if they think it will decrease, the yield curve will show a downward trend. On Wednesday and July, after the data was released, futures rose sharply and the cash return rate accelerated. The trading interest rate of benchmark 10-year active bonds fell below 3% for the first time since 2016 65438+February.

China 10-year bond yield is the basis of RMB asset pricing; Because the yield of 10-year treasury bonds is a long-term bond guaranteed by national credit, it is usually regarded as a risk-free yield. Not only the stock market, the futures market and even the real estate market depend on the risk-free rate of return (10-year treasury bond yield). In this sense, the bond market is the foundation and pillar of financial markets in all countries. The price, interest rate, maturity and credit of bonds determine the asset price in the financial market. Other types of bonds also use this as an anchor, adding their own "credit risk" to their respective yields.

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