Considering that business cycle (also known as business cycle, business cycle and business cycle) is a phenomenon that economic expansion and economic contraction alternate in economic operation, on the one hand, it reflects the overall and overall development trend of the economy and is the result of the comprehensive action of various factors in the economy; On the other hand, it will have an important impact and restriction on all specific aspects of the economy. As an important part of the commodity market, the international crude oil market is bound to be influenced and restricted by the economic cycle. When the economy enters the rising cycle, the demand for crude oil will gradually increase, the consumption will continue to expand, and the price of crude oil will gradually rise; When the economy enters the recession cycle, the demand is sluggish and consumption slows down, and the price of crude oil will also fall. Therefore, although the fluctuation of oil price will have an impact on economic growth, on the other hand, the cycle of economic cycle will also restrict the crude oil market and affect the development trend of oil price.
(B) Analysis of the economic cycle and the law of crude oil price adjustment
We can roughly divide the development process of the global economy from 1983 to now into five economic cycles, including four relatively complete cycles: 1983- 1988, 1989- 1996,1996. In each cycle, the global economy began to decline from the peak of the previous cycle, and then gradually recovered after bottoming out, from recession to prosperity. At present, the global economy is in the fifth cycle.
As can be seen from Figure 5, in the first four complete cycles, the change of crude oil price has obvious correlation with the economic cycle. Every round of economic recovery and growth has pushed up the price of crude oil, and every round of economic recession has led to a decline in oil prices. In the current economic cycle, this relationship is even more obvious: the global financial crisis triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has led to a deep recession of the global economy, entering a downward cycle, and crude oil prices have also fallen sharply. The spot price of the New York Mercantile Exchange Brent crude oil has dropped from $93.9 at the end of 2007 to $465,438+$0.8 per barrel at the end of 2008, a decrease of 55.5%.
In addition, the economic cycle of individuals in the world's major crude oil consuming countries also has an important impact on crude oil prices. Take the United States as an example Since 2003, with the sustained growth of American economy, the price of WTI crude oil futures in the New York Mercantile Exchange has also been fluctuating and rising. In several stages of rapid economic growth in the growth cycle, the price of crude oil also rose rapidly. In 2007-2008, the American economy ended its growth cycle and entered a downward cycle. Although affected by short-term factors such as market expectations, the price of crude oil once soared to 145 USD/barrel, but after a short-term shock, the price of crude oil was finally constrained by the economic cycle and began to fall rapidly. At the end of 2008, the price of WTI crude oil futures fell to $58.7/barrel, a decrease of 59.5%. In 2009, the global financial crisis stabilized, the American economy gradually stepped out of recession, and crude oil prices also rebounded. In the third quarter of 2009, the annual GDP of the United States was 2.8%, which was close to the pre-crisis economic growth level, and the crude oil price also returned to the range of 70-80 USD/barrel, which was basically the same as that in the second and third quarters of 2007.
(c) The coming of recovery cycle and the medium-term trend of crude oil market
After experiencing the downward cycle in 2007-2008, the global economic deterioration trend slowed down in 2009 and gradually stepped out of the recession quagmire. Since the beginning of 20 10, the international financial market has fluctuated greatly due to the European sovereign debt crisis, but overall, the recovery trend of the global economy has not been reversed. According to the IMF's forecast, the global economy will enter a recovery cycle after contracting by 1.06% in 2009, and the global economy will grow by 3. 10 in 20/kloc-0, 20 12 and 20 13 years respectively. In the economic recovery cycle, the global economy will gradually pick up and enter a stage of rapid development, the demand for energy market will gradually rise, investment will increase, output will expand, and the exploitation and refining of crude oil will also increase greatly. In the medium term, as the economy moves from recovery to prosperity, the international crude oil price will climb to a new high, and the international crude oil price 140 USD/barrel may break through again.
Four, the international crude oil market price trend of China.
Since 1997, China's crude oil pricing has been in line with international standards, there has been only one-way price influence mechanism between international oil prices and domestic oil prices: domestic oil prices are passively affected by international oil price fluctuations. With the rapid development of China's economy in recent years, oil imports have increased substantially, and the drastic fluctuations in the international crude oil market have gradually increased the impact on China's economic operation. On the one hand, the continuous rise of international oil prices will increase China's foreign exchange expenditure, affect the trade surplus, and at the same time increase domestic inflationary pressure and push up the price index. On the other hand, the sharp drop in international oil prices may have a great impact on China's oil industry. Enterprises that bought a large amount of crude oil in the early stage may suffer huge book losses due to falling prices, while oil mining enterprises will also benefit from the impact of international oil prices on domestic oil prices, which will further affect other departments in the entire industrial chain and cause greater risks to the operation of the national economy. Therefore, China should take measures to prevent all kinds of shocks that may be caused by the drastic fluctuation of international crude oil prices according to the long-,medium-and short-term characteristics and development trends of the international crude oil market, so as to maintain the sustained and stable development of the domestic economy.
In the long run, the exhaustible resource model has a decisive influence on the international crude oil market. Therefore, China's oil development enterprises should constantly strengthen their strength, persist in "going out", constantly enhance their position and influence in the international market, and strive to avoid being controlled by others after the shortage of crude oil in the future. At the same time, China should also vigorously promote the development and utilization of new energy, find suitable oil substitutes, reduce the pressure of future energy bottlenecks on economic growth, and gain an active advantage in future global energy competition.
In the medium term, the outbreak and spread of the global financial crisis has changed the operating cycle of the global economy. The global economy has gradually recovered after the continuous recession, but the persistent impact of the crisis has not ended, and various risks such as sovereign debt and bank assets have not been eliminated. Affected by economic cycle factors, crude oil prices are in the middle-term adjustment stage, and it is difficult to achieve a strong breakthrough in prices. Therefore, China should make full use of this stage, digest the negative impact on the domestic economy caused by the violent shock of the international crude oil market before and after the financial crisis, seize the opportunity, make arrangements in advance, and prepare for the future economic cycle changes and the obvious trend of crude oil prices.
In the short term, considering the influence of speculative factors on crude oil prices, China should further improve the linkage mechanism of domestic and international oil prices, gradually change the passive acceptance of foreign oil price changes, and safeguard China's interests in the international crude oil market. In addition, China should further strengthen and improve the construction of domestic futures market, learn from the useful experience of international crude oil futures market, introduce a variety of crude oil futures varieties, form a reasonable crude oil price formation mechanism, and avoid large fluctuations in oil prices.